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  • Path to Confidence: Stop Chasing the Market and Pick Your Lane

    Path to Confidence: Stop Chasing the Market and Pick Your Lane
    2026/09/10
    In Part 1 of the "Path to Confidence" series, Stephen Morris and Andrew Sather tackle a critical lesson for beginner investors: you must know what game you are playing to avoid gambling away your money. The hosts break down key investor archetypes—from hands-off 401(k) "set-it-and-forget-it" investors to broad-market index/ETF purists—exploring the pros, cons, and tax strategies behind each path. Moving beyond passive strategies, Stephen and Andrew analyze the realities of physical real estate versus REITs, alongside the mental grit required to succeed as an individual stock picker. The episode wraps up with a concrete action step: identify your investor archetype, write it down, and use it to confidently filter out any financial media noise that doesn't fit your personal game plan. What You Will Learn How to identify your specific investor archetype so you stop playing the wrong financial game and focus on your strengths. The key pros, cons, and tax strategies of 401(k)s, Roth IRAs, and low-cost index ETFs. The truth about real estate investing, comparing the heavy debt and hands-on labor of physical property to the passive simplicity of REITs. The mental grit required for stock picking, and why long-term fundamental investing beats high-stress day trading every time. A simple, 1-step action item to filter out distracting financial media noise and stay completely confident in your strategy. Timestamps 02:15 – Introducing the "Path to Confidence" Series 03:30 – Archetype 1: The 401(k) "Set It & Forget It" Investor 04:30 – Pros & Cons of Employer-Sponsored 401(k) Plans 07:15 – Strategy Breakdown: 401(k) Match vs. Roth IRA 09:20 – Archetype 2: The Index Fund & ETF Purist 11:20 – Why ETFs Are the Safest Learning Ground for Beginners 12:55 – Archetype 3: Real Estate (Is Your Primary Home an Investment?) 15:10 – The Reality of Physical Real Estate: Leverage, Labor & Debt Risks 19:37 – REITs: The Truly Passive Alternative to Property Management 29:13 – Archetype 4: The Stock Picker Mindset & Mental Toughness 49:50 – Archetype 5: Trader vs. Investor (Day Trading Risks vs. Compounding) 58:10 – The Action Step: Your Sticky Note Assignment & Filtering Media Noise Resources Mentioned The Value Spotlight Newsletter: ⁠https://einvestingforbeginners.com/value-spotlight-newsletter⁠/ Have questions or want your story featured? Email the show at ⁠newsletter@einvestingforbeginners.com⁠ or comment below. Your feedback shapes the podcast! Remember, invest with a margin of safety—emphasis on the safety. Have a great week, and we’ll talk to you next time. Timestamps are generated by artificial intelligence, and are not 100% accurate depending on the platform used for listening. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today’s show is sponsored by: Download Cash App Today: https://click.cash.app/ui6m/0th4z72y #CashAppPod As a Cash App partner, I may earn a commission when you sign up for a Cash App account. Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Bitcoin services provided by Block, Inc. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures. Shopify: Stop waiting for permission to build something. Your next revenue stream starts for free at shopify.com/beginners Turn your passion into profit, connect directly with eager buyers, and grow your business by hosting live, interactive auctions at ⁠https://whatnot.com/sell⁠ Supercharge your productivity and automate your daily tasks by building custom AI agents in your all-in-one workspace at ⁠https://notion.com/investing⁠ The Perfect Jean makes insanely comfortable, great-fitting jeans you can wear all day—check them out at theperfectjean.nyc. Function Health helps you get ahead of your health with comprehensive lab testing and clear, actionable insights—learn more at functionhealth.com. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Interested in how your company sponsor the show? Reach us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠equity@einvestingforbeginners.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW⁠...
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    1 時間 7 分
  • AAR66 - Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?

    AAR66 - Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?
    2026/09/08
    In this special game-show episode of At Any Rate, Evan puts Andrew in the hot seat for a 15-question financial trivia challenge. From guessing 2026 401(k) contribution limits and average new car prices to exposing credit card score myths and gym membership waste, the guys test how well real-world finance metrics match consumer intuition. Whether you're playing along in the car or looking to sanity-check your own budget, this episode combines surprising macroeconomic statistics with practical behavioral advice on managing debt, bonuses, and grocery budgets. What You Will Learn U.S. Credit Score Reality: Why the average American credit score (740) is significantly higher than most consumers assume. Bear Market Horizons: Why the average bear market lasts only 9.6 months and how "recency bias" tricks investors into staying on the sidelines. Credit Card Debt Myths: Why 48% of Americans carry a monthly balance—and why carrying debt does not improve your credit score. The Cost of Driving: How new car prices ($49,000) have pushed average loan terms to a staggering 69 months. The 60/40 Bonus Rule: How to enjoy workplace bonuses without blowing your long-term savings goals. Stock Market Non-Participation: Why 38% of Americans hold zero stock investments and how to overcome financial paralysis. Timestamps 0:00 – Game Show Intro & Rules: Who Wants to Be a Financial Millionaire? 3:42 – Tier 1: Average Credit Scores & 401(k) Contribution Limits ($24,500) 8:27 – New Car Price Realities ($49,000) & Average Credit Card Debt ($7,000) 12:55 – Bear Market Historical Length (9.6 Months) vs. Recency Bias 17:35 – Housing Market Leverage: Total Real Estate Value vs. U.S. GDP (4x) 19:11 – Tier 2: Emergency Savings Deficits (30% with $0 in Savings) 27:32 – Gym Membership Waste (67% Unused) & Wedding Costs ($34,200) 31:32 – Credit Card Myths: Why Carrying a Balance Does NOT Improve Credit 34:42 – Tier 3: New Car Loan Terms (69 Months) & Median U.S. Bonuses ($1,700) 40:47 – How to Manage Bonuses: The 60/40 Spending & Savings Rule 43:00 – Monthly Gas Costs ($200) vs. EV Charging Efficiency ($45/mo) 44:35 – Average Grocery Bills ($400/mo) & Luxury Grocery Markups 46:37 – Moneyball Question: Stock Market Non-Participation (38%) & Crypto/Gambling Traps 51:47 – Overcoming Financial Hopelessness: Building Habits & Incremental Progress 55:35 – Final Score Resources Mentioned The Value Spotlight Newsletter: https://einvestingforbeginners.com/value-spotlight-newsletter/ Free monthly budgeting spreadsheet: https://einvestingforbeginners.com/budget/ Email Evan: evan@einvestingforbeginners.com Have questions or want your story featured? Email the show at newsletter@einvestingforbeginners.com or comment below. Your feedback shapes the podcast! Remember, financial freedom is built one smart move at a time. Keep it simple, keep it steady, and at any rate, we’ll see you next time. Timestamps are generated by artificial intelligence, and are not 100% accurate depending on the platform used for listening. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Today’s show is sponsored by: Download the Plynk app today to start building your investing confidence. https://plynkinvest.app.link/IFBpodcast Download Cash App Today: https://click.cash.app/ui6m/0th4z72y #CashAppPod As a Cash App partner, I may earn a commission when you sign up for a Cash App account. Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Bitcoin services provided by Block, Inc. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures. Shopify: Stop waiting for permission to build something. Your next revenue stream starts for free at shopify.com/beginners Upgrade your wardrobe with Quince to get high-quality, luxury essentials at a fraction of the cost by visiting ⁠https://quince.com/beginners⁠ Turn your passion into profit, connect directly with eager buyers, and grow your business by hosting live, interactive auctions at ⁠https://whatnot.com/sell⁠ Supercharge your productivity and automate your daily tasks by building custom AI agents in your all-in-one workspace at ⁠https://notion.com/investing⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Interested in how your company sponsor the show? Reach us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠equity@einvestingforbeginners.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW...
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    1 時間
  • The First Metric Every Investor Must Check Before Buying

    The First Metric Every Investor Must Check Before Buying
    2026/09/07
    When analyzing a stock for the first time, retail investors often get blinded by stock price charts, flashy marketing, or news headlines. But if you want to know whether a business is actually compounding value, you have to look at the top line: Revenue Growth. In this episode, Stephen and Andrew break down the fundamental starting point for analyzing any stock, why top-line growth drives long-term earnings per share (EPS), and how to use base rates to spot unrealistic hypergrowth traps before they wreck your portfolio. What You Will Learn The Revenue-to-Price Pipeline: Why McKinsey and Peter Lynch studies prove that revenue growth is the ultimate driver of long-term stock returns. EPS vs. Stock Price: Why a $20 stock can actually be significantly more expensive than a $500 stock. The Limit of Cost Cutting: Why companies cannot cost-cut their way to compounding returns—and why profit margins hit a hard ceiling. The Skewed Data Trap: How single-year anomalies, cyclical spikes, and M&A activity ruin 3- and 5-year screener averages. The 4%–6% Base Rate Baseline: Michael Mauboussin’s research on real-world corporate growth rates and why expecting 20%+ annual growth forever is a mathematical delusion. Timestamps 00:00:00 — The Fundamental Starting Point: Why top-line revenue growth is step #1 for stock analysis 00:00:45 — EPS vs. Stock Price: Dissecting valuation so you don't confuse share price with company value 00:04:47 — Revenue Growth vs. Cost Cutting: The mathematical limit of profit margins 00:07:50 — Percentages Over Headline Dollars: Evaluating small caps vs. mega-caps objectively 00:09:32 — The Skewed Data Trap: How one-time events and M&A distort multi-year growth metrics 00:11:57 — Michael Mauboussin Base Rates: Why 4%–6% revenue growth is the true economic baseline 00:14:52 — Valuation Meets Growth: P/E ratios as "duct tape" and revenue growth as "WD-40" 00:20:17 — The Hypergrowth Trap: Why 30%+ annual growth almost always reverts to the mean 00:25:17 — The 7%–15% Sweet Spot: Identifying sustainable compounders without taking extreme risk 00:29:57 — Value Re-Rating & Dividends: How mature businesses like Coca-Cola compound wealth quietly 00:36:42 — Practical Stock Screening: How to set up multiple screens to catch ideas without falling for traps Resources Mentioned The Value Spotlight Newsletter: ⁠https://einvestingforbeginners.com/value-spotlight-newsletter⁠/ Have questions or want your story featured? Email the show at ⁠newsletter@einvestingforbeginners.com⁠ or comment below. Your feedback shapes the podcast! Remember, invest with a margin of safety—emphasis on the safety. Have a great week, and we’ll talk to you next time. Timestamps are generated by artificial intelligence, and are not 100% accurate depending on the platform used for listening. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today’s show is sponsored by: Download Cash App Today: https://click.cash.app/ui6m/0th4z72y #CashAppPod As a Cash App partner, I may earn a commission when you sign up for a Cash App account. Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Bitcoin services provided by Block, Inc. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures. Shopify: Stop waiting for permission to build something. Your next revenue stream starts for free at shopify.com/beginners Turn your passion into profit, connect directly with eager buyers, and grow your business by hosting live, interactive auctions at ⁠https://whatnot.com/sell⁠ Supercharge your productivity and automate your daily tasks by building custom AI agents in your all-in-one workspace at ⁠https://notion.com/investing⁠ The Perfect Jean makes insanely comfortable, great-fitting jeans you can wear all day—check them out at theperfectjean.nyc. Function Health helps you get ahead of your health with comprehensive lab testing and clear, actionable insights—learn more at functionhealth.com. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Interested in how your company sponsor the show? Reach us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠equity@einvestingforbeginners.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW⁠...
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    48 分
  • Is NVIDIA’s High-Margin Machine Sustainable?

    Is NVIDIA’s High-Margin Machine Sustainable?
    2026/09/03
    NVIDIA is currently pulling off something unprecedented in financial history: posting startup-like revenue growth (+126% in 2024 and +114% in 2025) while sitting at a massive $4 trillion valuation. Mainstream media treats this hyper-growth as an unstoppable tech miracle, but history shows that every infrastructure CapEx boom eventually faces physical and economic boundaries. In this episode, Stephen and Andrew look under NVIDIA's hood to examine whether its fabless business model and CUDA software lock-in justify its valuation, or if Big Tech is caught in a classic, 19th-century-style CapEx bubble. What You Will Learn The Fabless Margin Advantage: How NVIDIA commands software-like profit margins by outsourcing heavy semiconductor manufacturing to TSMC. The 1873 Railroad Parallel: What the 19th-century infrastructure boom teaches us about today's $800 billion Big Tech AI CapEx race. CUDA’s Unbreakable Moat: How proprietary software ecosystem lock-in keeps hyperscalers dependent on NVIDIA GPUs instead of switching to AMD. The Memory Oligopoly Bottleneck: How Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron squeeze hardware buyers and drive up data center costs across the tech sector. Broadcom vs. Qualcomm: Why two similar chipmakers diverged by 10x in market cap over a decade, and what it reveals about semiconductor stock picking. Timestamps 00:00:00 — NVIDIA’s Startup Growth at Scale: Auditing +126% revenue growth on a $4T valuation 00:02:12 — Forward P/E vs. Trailing P/E: What Wall Street is pricing into NVIDIA’s next 4 quarters 00:05:42 — CPU vs. GPU Revolution: How parallel computing allowed NVIDIA to dethrone Intel 00:08:06 — The Fabless Model: Why chip design yields software-like margins without factory overhead 00:12:32 — The Zero-Marginal-Cost Trap: Anthropic and OpenAI’s explosive revenue run-rates 00:14:12 — The Memory Oligopoly: How Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung exercise extreme pricing power 00:15:54 — Single Points of Failure: NVIDIA’s total supply-chain reliance on TSMC and ASML 00:19:20 — Historical CapEx Cycles: Comparing today's Big Tech AI spend to the 1873 Railroad Bubble 00:25:40 — AI ROI Reality Check: Agentic coding, enterprise adoption, and "AI slop" quality risks 00:41:06 — Analyzing NVIDIA as a Beginner: Untempered enthusiasm vs. demanding a margin of safety 00:44:50 — Broadcom vs. Qualcomm: How two semiconductor peers diverged by 10x in ten years Resources Mentioned The Value Spotlight Newsletter: ⁠https://einvestingforbeginners.com/value-spotlight-newsletter⁠/ Have questions or want your story featured? Email the show at ⁠newsletter@einvestingforbeginners.com⁠ or comment below. Your feedback shapes the podcast! Remember, invest with a margin of safety—emphasis on the safety. Have a great week, and we’ll talk to you next time. Timestamps are generated by artificial intelligence, and are not 100% accurate depending on the platform used for listening. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today’s show is sponsored by: Download Cash App Today: https://click.cash.app/ui6m/0th4z72y #CashAppPod As a Cash App partner, I may earn a commission when you sign up for a Cash App account. Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Bitcoin services provided by Block, Inc. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures. Shopify: Stop waiting for permission to build something. Your next revenue stream starts for free at shopify.com/beginners Turn your passion into profit, connect directly with eager buyers, and grow your business by hosting live, interactive auctions at ⁠https://whatnot.com/sell⁠ Supercharge your productivity and automate your daily tasks by building custom AI agents in your all-in-one workspace at ⁠https://notion.com/investing⁠ The Perfect Jean makes insanely comfortable, great-fitting jeans you can wear all day—check them out at theperfectjean.nyc. Function Health helps you get ahead of your health with comprehensive lab testing and clear, actionable insights—learn more at functionhealth.com. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Interested in how your company sponsor the show? Reach us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠equity@einvestingforbeginners.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW⁠...
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    51 分
  • AAR65 - Where Are People Wasting Money?

    AAR65 - Where Are People Wasting Money?
    2026/09/01
    Are you accidentally throwing money down the drain without realizing it? In this episode of At Any Rate, Evan and Andrew break down five sneaky financial missteps that cause people to waste cash—from point-of-sale financing traps to unneeded consumer upgrades and stagnant checking accounts. Instead of shaming bad spending habits, the guys share honest personal realizations (including Evan’s eye-opening look at phone installment plans) and provide simple, actionable systems like sinking funds and "output-based purchasing" to keep your finances on track without sacrificing the things you love. What You Will Learn The Buy Now, Pay Later Trap: Why financing small purchases like concert tickets, couches, and plane tickets wrecks your long-term cash flow. Sinking Funds vs. Debt: How setting aside dedicated cash pools lets you spend guilt-free on furniture, trips, and holidays. Misstep 2: Unneeded Upgrades: How to evaluate upgrades using "output-based purchasing" to stop overspending on new iPhones, flights, and car packages. Stagnant Cash Loss: The true opportunity cost of keeping your emergency fund in a default checking account versus a High-Yield Savings Account (HYSA). Thoughtful Gifting vs. Overspending: How to express care without going into debt on holiday gifts or expensive jewelry. Hobby Management: Why stepping up through entry-level equipment (from coffee grinders to guitars) brings more joy and value than buying top-of-the-line gear upfront. Timestamps 0:00 – Identifying Silent Wealth Killers 1:52 – Misstep 1: Financing Small Purchases (BNPL, Concerts & Couches) 5:29 – Using Sinking Funds to Stop Debt Spirals 8:49 – Misstep 2: Upgrades You Don't Need (iPhones, Flights & Car Packages) 13:24 – Output-Based Purchasing: How to Justify Lifestyle Upgrades 21:19 – Misstep 3: Piling Cash in Stagnant Accounts 25:54 – The Power of HYSAs for Down Payments & Emergency Cash 28:27 – Misstep 4: Overspending on Gifts (Thoughtfulness vs. Price Tags) 33:03 – Handling Budget Mistakes & Planning for Holiday Spending 37:59 – Misstep 5: The Expense of Hobbies (Guitars, PCs, and $3,500 Coffee Setups) 48:34 – The Coffee Grinder Lesson: Why You Shouldn't Buy Top-of-the-Line Immediately Resources Mentioned The Value Spotlight Newsletter: https://einvestingforbeginners.com/value-spotlight-newsletter/ Free monthly budgeting spreadsheet: https://einvestingforbeginners.com/budget/ Email Evan: evan@einvestingforbeginners.com Have questions or want your story featured? Email the show at newsletter@einvestingforbeginners.com or comment below. Your feedback shapes the podcast! Remember, financial freedom is built one smart move at a time. Keep it simple, keep it steady, and at any rate, we’ll see you next time. Timestamps are generated by artificial intelligence, and are not 100% accurate depending on the platform used for listening. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Today’s show is sponsored by: Download Cash App Today: https://click.cash.app/ui6m/0th4z72y #CashAppPod As a Cash App partner, I may earn a commission when you sign up for a Cash App account. Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Bitcoin services provided by Block, Inc. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures. Shopify: Stop waiting for permission to build something. Your next revenue stream starts for free at shopify.com/beginners Upgrade your wardrobe with Quince to get high-quality, luxury essentials at a fraction of the cost by visiting ⁠https://quince.com/beginners⁠ Turn your passion into profit, connect directly with eager buyers, and grow your business by hosting live, interactive auctions at ⁠https://whatnot.com/sell⁠ Supercharge your productivity and automate your daily tasks by building custom AI agents in your all-in-one workspace at ⁠https://notion.com/investing⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Interested in how your company sponsor the show? Reach us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠equity@einvestingforbeginners.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW...
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    54 分
  • How to Get 9% Returns with Half the Market Volatility

    How to Get 9% Returns with Half the Market Volatility
    2026/08/31
    Mainstream financial media tells investors that the only way to build long-term wealth is to throw 100% of their money into index funds and hold on for dear life. But when the market crashes and portfolios get cut in half, human psychology kicks in, and retail investors almost always panic-sell at the exact wrong time. In this episode, Stephen sits down with contrarian market veteran Jared Dillian to dissect the psychological flaws of traditional indexing and break down the "Awesome Portfolio"—a stress-free, 5-asset allocation strategy designed to deliver near-market returns with a fraction of the drawdowns. What You Will Learn The Indexing Trap: Why holding an S&P 500 index fund exposes your entire net worth to crippling 50% drawdowns (and why most humans can't handle it). The Finnish IQ Study: How military data from Finland proves that "smarter" investors outperform the market simply through disciplined market timing and risk control. The "Giffen Good" Paradox: Why investors irrationally hate cheap assets (like 5% yielding bonds) but blindly pile into expensive, over-hyped tech stocks. The 20% Cash Rule: Why holding cash isn't just a safety net—it’s ultimate liquidity for buying distressed assets and capitalizing on rare life opportunities. Why Crypto Kills Compounding: Why keeping volatile assets like Bitcoin out of your core portfolio protects your Sharpe ratio and prevents emotional checking. Timestamps 00:01:21 The evolution of market mechanics: From trading fractions on the open-outcry floor to AI algorithms. 00:03:50 Comparing the current AI boom to the 2000 Dot-com bubble (and why today's tech stocks are fundamentally different). 00:04:49 The Bond Market Disconnect: Why investors are ignoring risk-free 5% yields. 00:10:24 The Finnish IQ Study: What administrative data teaches us about market timing and cognitive discipline. 00:12:18 Jared’s Lehman Brothers backstory and surviving a 50% net-worth wipeout in 2008. 00:14:40 Deconstructing the "Awesome Portfolio": VTI, BND, IAU, TBIL, and VNQ. 00:16:34 Why Bitcoin and cryptocurrency are excluded to preserve portfolio peace of mind. 00:19:32 The 3 reasons you must hold cash: Volatility smoothing, 5% yields, and pure optionality. 00:24:15 Breaking the Boglehead Orthodoxy: Why the "all-stocks, all the time" strategy is a behavioral trap. 00:32:08 Debunking extreme personal finance: Why The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad give dangerous advice. Resources Mentioned The Value Spotlight Newsletter: ⁠https://einvestingforbeginners.com/value-spotlight-newsletter⁠/ Have questions or want your story featured? Email the show at ⁠newsletter@einvestingforbeginners.com⁠ or comment below. Your feedback shapes the podcast! Remember, invest with a margin of safety—emphasis on the safety. Have a great week, and we’ll talk to you next time. Timestamps are generated by artificial intelligence, and are not 100% accurate depending on the platform used for listening. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today’s show is sponsored by: Download Cash App Today: https://click.cash.app/ui6m/0th4z72y #CashAppPod As a Cash App partner, I may earn a commission when you sign up for a Cash App account. Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Bitcoin services provided by Block, Inc. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures. Shopify: Stop waiting for permission to build something. Your next revenue stream starts for free at shopify.com/beginners Turn your passion into profit, connect directly with eager buyers, and grow your business by hosting live, interactive auctions at ⁠https://whatnot.com/sell⁠ Supercharge your productivity and automate your daily tasks by building custom AI agents in your all-in-one workspace at ⁠https://notion.com/investing⁠ The Perfect Jean makes insanely comfortable, great-fitting jeans you can wear all day—check them out at theperfectjean.nyc. Function Health helps you get ahead of your health with comprehensive lab testing and clear, actionable insights—learn more at functionhealth.com. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Interested in how your company sponsor the show? Reach us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠equity@einvestingforbeginners.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW⁠...
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    40 分
  • Dissecting Capital One, Netflix, and Wall Street's Favorite Metrics

    Dissecting Capital One, Netflix, and Wall Street's Favorite Metrics
    2026/08/27
    It’s tempting to fire up a stock screener, sort by top-line revenue growth, and assume you’ve just uncovered a goldmine of breakout stocks. But when a legacy credit card company suddenly posts triple-digit growth, it’s rarely an economic miracle—it’s an accounting illusion. In this episode, we run a live revenue breakout screen to show exactly how Wall Street numbers lie, why corporate acquisitions distort financial data, and how to protect your capital from manufactured hype. What You Will Learn Why record revenue is a trap: How Capital One’s sudden 102% growth rate exposes the danger of using unadjusted, raw stock screeners. The M&A growth illusion: Why buying a competitor (like the Discover acquisition) temporarily breaks year-over-year financial comparisons and tricks retail investors. The Forward P/E warning sign: Why Netflix looks cheap based on past earnings but expensive when you factor in Wall Street's expectation of shrinking margins. The "Dictator CEO" red flag: How to use proxy statements to spot concentrated voting power and shareholder lawsuits, using AppLovin as the prime example. Ignoring the macro noise: Why trying to time market tops using bank stocks (Morgan Stanley, BlackRock) is a losing game for long-term investors. Timestamps 00:01:59 The Revenue Breakout Screen: Filtering for 1-year growth beating 3- and 5-year averages 00:05:08 The Capital One (COF) Illusion: Why a 102% growth rate isn't what it seems 00:08:15 Bank Stocks and Macro Narratives: Can we predict the economy using Citigroup or Bank of America? 00:18:40 Unpacking Capital One’s acquisition of Discover and how buyouts skew financial metrics 00:24:42 The AppLovin (APP) dilemma: High growth vs. extreme executive control and shareholder lawsuits 00:35:35 Netflix (NFLX) and Valuation: Using Forward P/E to predict shrinking profit margins 00:37:00 Founder Departures: Why a CEO stepping down isn't always a reason to panic 00:43:00 Morgan Stanley & BlackRock: Do booming investment banks signal a market top? 00:48:10 Tuning out the media: Why long-term investors must ignore macroeconomic fear-mongering Resources Mentioned The Value Spotlight Newsletter: ⁠https://einvestingforbeginners.com/value-spotlight-newsletter⁠/ Have questions or want your story featured? Email the show at ⁠newsletter@einvestingforbeginners.com⁠ or comment below. Your feedback shapes the podcast! Remember, invest with a margin of safety—emphasis on the safety. Have a great week, and we’ll talk to you next time. Timestamps are generated by artificial intelligence, and are not 100% accurate depending on the platform used for listening. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Today’s show is sponsored by: Download Cash App Today: https://click.cash.app/ui6m/0th4z72y #CashAppPod As a Cash App partner, I may earn a commission when you sign up for a Cash App account. Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Bitcoin services provided by Block, Inc. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures. Shopify: Stop waiting for permission to build something. Your next revenue stream starts for free at shopify.com/beginners Turn your passion into profit, connect directly with eager buyers, and grow your business by hosting live, interactive auctions at ⁠https://whatnot.com/sell⁠ Supercharge your productivity and automate your daily tasks by building custom AI agents in your all-in-one workspace at ⁠https://notion.com/investing⁠ The Perfect Jean makes insanely comfortable, great-fitting jeans you can wear all day—check them out at theperfectjean.nyc. Function Health helps you get ahead of your health with comprehensive lab testing and clear, actionable insights—learn more at functionhealth.com. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Interested in how your company sponsor the show? Reach us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠equity@einvestingforbeginners.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW⁠...
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    50 分
  • AAR64 - The Personal Finance Time Machine

    AAR64 - The Personal Finance Time Machine
    2026/08/25
    What advice would you give your 22-year-old self if you found a DeLorean in your driveway? In this episode of At Any Rate, Evan and Andrew look back at their early 20s to unpack what actually matters when transitioning from school into the real world. From managing the overwhelming urge to hit every financial milestone at once, to unlocking the true power of compound interest and dismantling the exhausting trend of "over-optimizing" every area of life, the guys share honest reflections on money, career expectations, and building habits that actually last. What You Will Learn Overcoming Milestone Anxiety: Why rushing to buy a house, pay off all debt, and max out accounts simultaneously leads to early burnout. The "Sunday Reset" & Habit Design: How intentionally setting smaller, manageable goals builds long-term consistency over short-term intensity. Demystifying Stock Market Hype: Why building wealth doesn't require a master's degree in math or chasing viral social media trends. The Power of Compound Interest: Why visual charts and compound calculators are the ultimate tools for early-20s financial motivation. Reframing Retirement: How investing in a Roth IRA or 401(k) at age 22 builds the exact mindset required to generate active wealth. Un-Optimizing Life: Why constant social media optimization ruins the enjoyment of fitness, hobbies, and personal finance. Timestamps 0:00 – Advice to Our 22-Year-Old Selves 4:38 – Personal Finance: Overcoming Early-20s Impatience & The Milestones Trap 11:32 – Managing Burnout: The Sunday Reset & Setting Realistic Financial "Whys" 18:53 – Investing: Demystifying Stock Picking & Visualizing Compound Growth 22:15 – Core Reading List: The Millionaire Next Door, Psychology of Money, Atomic Habits 29:15 – Retirement: Reframing 401(k)s, Roth IRAs & Funding Your "Future Self" 35:48 – Habit Consistency: Using a "Margin of Safety" to Prevent Burnout 40:37 – Career: Managing Salary Expectations & The Compounding Value of Work Ethic 45:44 – What We Wouldn't Listen To: Over-Optimization Fatigue & "Eating Humble Pie" Resources Mentioned The Value Spotlight Newsletter: https://einvestingforbeginners.com/value-spotlight-newsletter/ Free monthly budgeting spreadsheet: https://einvestingforbeginners.com/budget/ Email Evan: evan@einvestingforbeginners.com Have questions or want your story featured? Email the show at newsletter@einvestingforbeginners.com or comment below. Your feedback shapes the podcast! Remember, financial freedom is built one smart move at a time. Keep it simple, keep it steady, and at any rate, we’ll see you next time. Timestamps are generated by artificial intelligence, and are not 100% accurate depending on the platform used for listening. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Today’s show is sponsored by: Download Cash App Today: https://click.cash.app/ui6m/0th4z72y #CashAppPod As a Cash App partner, I may earn a commission when you sign up for a Cash App account. Cash App is a financial services platform, not a bank. Banking services provided by Cash App’s bank partner(s). Bitcoin services provided by Block, Inc. For additional information, see the Bitcoin disclosures. Shopify: Stop waiting for permission to build something. Your next revenue stream starts for free at shopify.com/beginners Upgrade your wardrobe with Quince to get high-quality, luxury essentials at a fraction of the cost by visiting ⁠https://quince.com/beginners⁠ Turn your passion into profit, connect directly with eager buyers, and grow your business by hosting live, interactive auctions at ⁠https://whatnot.com/sell⁠ Supercharge your productivity and automate your daily tasks by building custom AI agents in your all-in-one workspace at ⁠https://notion.com/investing⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Interested in how your company sponsor the show? Reach us at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠equity@einvestingforbeginners.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠SUBSCRIBE TO THE SHOW...
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    1 時間