In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Crisis Group’s Arabian Peninsula director Yasmine Farouk and senior Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi to explore why Yemen’s truce is unravelling and what renewed fighting means for the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. They examine how stalled Saudi-Houthi negotiations and the U.S.-Israel war on Iran are contributing to the latest escalation, and how Houthi attacks and threats against shipping through the Bab al-Mandab strait add to pressure on Saudi oil exports. They then discuss emerging Saudi-backed security partnerships, including the Red Sea maritime coalition and the R4 grouping of Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, Egypt and Pakistan, exploring their implications for the Horn. Finally, they assess stalled Sudan diplomacy, the Houthis’ ties with armed groups in Africa and the risk that Yemen’s conflict could spread across the Red Sea.

For more, check out our latest statement “Closing the New War Front in Yemen” this week’s Hold Your Fire! episode “Will the Houthis Shut Down the Bab al-Mandab Strait?”, Yasmine’s commentary “Can a New Initiative Help the Gulf Region Escape the U.S.-Israel-Iran Trap?” and our Gulf and Arabian Peninsula and Horn of Africa pages.

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This week on The Horn, Alan talks with Samira Gaid, founder and senior analyst at the Mogadishu-based think tank Balqiis, about the possible end of UNSOS, the UN logistics operation supporting African Union troops and Somali government forces fighting Al-Shabaab and what may come next.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Samira Gaid, founder and senior analyst at the Mogadishu-based think tank Balqiis about the U.S. decision to oppose renewed United Nations logistical support for the 19-year-old African Union military mission in Somalia. Samira explains why UN logistical support has been critical to the AU mission as well as to Somali government forces fighting Al-Shabaab, and why its loss could leave some areas outside Mogadishu increasingly vulnerable. They also discuss what could happen if no solution or stopgap measure is found, and the 12,000-strong African Union mission ceases to function by the end of the year. They discuss how such a scenario could shift the balance of power on the battlefield between the federal government and Al-Shabaab. They also assess whether Mogadishu’s pursuit of bilateral security partnerships could fill the void left by a weakened or defunct AU mission.

This episode is produced in partnership with the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung.

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This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Alex de Waal and Abdul Mohammed, former senior officials for the African Union’s mediation team, on how the split between Sudan and South Sudan fifteen years ago led to two failed states, the high-level diplomacy at the time to prevent all-out war, and whether such mediation is still possible today.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined again by Abdul Mohammed and Alex de Waal, who worked together for the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) for Sudan and South Sudan, to talk about the inside diplomacy surrounding the separation of Sudan and South Sudan, how those dramatic events led to the tragedies in both countries today, and the state of mediation in today’s fragmented world. De Waal is co-author of a new book The Sudans that tells the account of the African Union’s major mediation initiative under President Thabo Mbeki tasked with helping mediate Sudan’s split. Alan, Abdul and Alex discuss some of the untold history of that period, why negotiations ultimately failed to produce two viable states, and whether such coordinated high-level diplomacy is still possible in today’s fragmented regional geopolitics.

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