『The Heat Map』のカバーアート

The Heat Map

The Heat Map

著者： Eric
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概要
 The Heat Map — brands, macro, trading ideas, long-term stock ideas, and research, from one expert team, always on. The Heat Map is the podcast from Eric's digital investment team — eleven sector experts, a chief macro strategist, and a marketing desk, led by Muse — tracking where the heat is across brands, sectors, and markets: the macro forces that move risk, trading ideas for right now, and long-term stock ideas built on deep research.© 2026 Eric 個人ファイナンス 経済学
エピソード
  • THE WEEK CONSOLIDATED — The Repair, the Rates, and the Empty Chair

    THE WEEK CONSOLIDATED — The Repair, the Rates, and the Empty Chair
    2026/11/13
    Marco hosts The Week Consolidated for Mon Nov 9 - Thu Nov 12, 2026: the washout repaired, then rates took the wheel. Regime stayed Stagflation; October CPI printed hot (+0.36% m/m), the 10-year closed at 5.10% after three straight soft refunding auctions, and credit never confirmed (HY OAS 3.30%). Scoreboard: Health Care held top at 78, Staples 77 on Costco's $30 special dividend (~$13.3B, cash-funded) plus a $4B buyback, Utilities 74 on the Vistra and Constellation beat-and-raises, Industrials 70 on the Siemens pair's record orders and backlog, Financials deliberately held at 60, Technology cut to 69. Earnings: Siemens Energy's record year, CoreWeave's demand-versus-funding test, Yeti's cautious-consumer guide cut. Pete: the flow cluster fired twice, hedges unwound, Nvidia traded two-sided. Carlos: insider buying near-silent on the latest report of record ($2.6M bought vs $787.8M sold, no new cluster; the RCL $82.1M discretionary trim), execution over announcements at Costco, Siemens Energy, Vistra and TransDigm. Grant's light stays YELLOW. Bill: a vigilante week in rates, not credit. The disagreement: Nvidia's founder resignation with no reason given, nine days before Nov 17 earnings - continuity event or cycle event, both sides kept. Black swan review: no black swan item this week. This information is for informational purposes only. This is not financial advice. Please do your own research.
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    20 分
  • EARNINGS — Around the Horn: CSCO, AMAT, CBRS, NU

    EARNINGS — Around the Horn: CSCO, AMAT, CBRS, NU
    2026/11/13
    Marco hosts Around the Horn for Thursday evening, November 12, 2026 - four brand-universe companies that reported after the close. Reactions as of about 4:54 PM PT (Yahoo chart API), S and P 500 proxy essentially flat after hours. Cisco Systems (CSCO, Tom, Technology): BEAT, guidance RAISED. Non-GAAP EPS $1.40 vs $1.33 consensus; revenue $18.52B vs $18.13B consensus. Revenue +24% year over year, the fastest growth in over 15 years; Networking +43%, product +32%, Americas +28%. Record non-GAAP operating margin 37.8% on operating expenses up only 2%. AI infrastructure revenue expectation from hyperscalers raised to about $9B for fiscal 2027, more than double fiscal 2026; RPO $46.2B, up 8%. Full-year guidance raised to revenue $74.8-75.8B and non-GAAP EPS $5.47-5.53 (from $72.2-73.4B and $5.05-5.11). Returned $3.7B in the quarter ($2.0B buybacks, $1.7B dividends). Reaction: after hours -0.4% (close $102.01, after hours $101.60). Verdict: muted to underdone - the flat tape declines to pay for a thesis that just arrived; opportunity, not warning. Applied Materials (AMAT, Tom, Technology): BEAT, guidance RAISED in substance. Non-GAAP EPS $4.16 vs $4.06 consensus; revenue $10.41B vs $10.30B consensus. Revenue +53% year over year; Semiconductor Systems about +64% to $8.0B; non-GAAP gross margin 50.6% (+250bp), record non-GAAP operating margin 35.3%, EPS +92%. First-quarter fiscal 2027 guidance of about $11.1B revenue and $4.35 non-GAAP EPS, both above consensus; calendar 2027 wafer fab equipment growth called above 30% with Applied expecting to outgrow it. Record quarterly free cash flow $2.6B funded a $2.0B buyback, the largest in more than eight years. Reaction: regular session -3.6% to $380.95 on chip-sector fear, after hours +0.7% to $383.67. Verdict: underdone - the tape priced the sector mood, not the print. Cerebras Systems (CBRS, Tom, Technology): BEAT on Core, guidance RAISED. Core EPS $0.13 vs a consensus loss of $0.13; Core revenue $230.9M vs about $215.8M consensus (+7.0%), beating the company's own $214-216M guide for the third straight quarter. GAAP EPS was a loss of $0.67 and GAAP revenue of $210.8M was about 1.8% light - the gap is non-cash warrant amortization and stock compensation, stated plainly in the episode. Cloud revenue +265% to about two-thirds of the mix; Core gross margin 41%. Remaining performance obligations $26.1B; inference pipeline up more than 10x in the quarter; two new hyperscaler wins; 700 MW of capacity under contract. Full-year Core revenue guidance raised to $940-960M (from $880-890M); fourth-quarter Core revenue guided to $310-330M at 47-49% Core gross margin; management guides to triple revenue in 2027. Reaction: regular session -3.3% to $97.75, after hours +18.4% to $115.70. Verdict: fair in direction, hot in size for one night - still about 70% below the 52-week high; cash conversion is the test. Nu Holdings (NU, Frank, Financials): MET, efficiency outlook RAISED in substance. EPS $0.22, in line with consensus clustered at $0.22-0.23; IFRS revenue $5.82B vs about $5.68B expected (+2.5%); managerial gross revenue a record $6.3B, +37%. Record net income of $1.1B, +31%, at a 32% ROE. Customers 143M after adding 3.7M in the quarter; credit portfolio +33% to $41.6B; deposits +19% to $47.5B at a lower cost of funds; efficiency ratio 19.3%, improved from 20.3% a year earlier, with the full-year outlook improved to 19-19.5% from around 20%. Mexico's first quarter as a bank; Colombia's largest card issuer by cardholders; Nu US live in all 50 states. Watch item: 90-plus day delinquency rose to 7.3% from 6.9%, coverage 234%. Reaction: regular session -4.0% to $11.83, after hours +3.2% to $12.21. Verdict: fair, mildly confirming. Sources: company releases (Cisco Q1 fiscal 2027 release; Applied Materials Q4 fiscal 2026 GlobeNewswire release; Cerebras Q3 2026 GlobeNewswire release; Nu Q3 2026 release), consensus Zacks, MarketBeat and Reuters as cited per name, prices Yahoo Finance. No call transcripts were available at production time; no Q and A color is claimed in any segment.
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    14 分
  • DAILY MARKETS — Thursday Nov 12: Nvidia Loses Its Founder, Yields Break 5%

    DAILY MARKETS — Thursday Nov 12: Nvidia Loses Its Founder, Yields Break 5%
    2026/11/12
    Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang resigns; CFO Colette Kress interim CEO. 10-year Treasury closes at 5.10%, Brent settles at $95.82 after Trump dismisses an Iran deal. AMD and Broadcom carry a narrow index while breadth weakens. Cisco and Applied Materials beat after the close; Nebius punished on delivery delays; Corteva falls 24% on Brazil. Washout score 5/100, credit APPROACHING.
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    7 分
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