On today’s podcast, The Washington Monthly’s Bill Scher talks with Matt about:

— Abdul El-Sayed told CNN he will win Michigan by 7 points, while recent public polls mostly show leads of 1–4

— El-Sayed reportedly reached out o Hasan Piker, asking him to lay low.

— Why Michigan, Maine, and Minnesota look softer for Democrats than Texas

— Bill’s own poll average (all non-internal polls, fixed recent window) model

— Can the polls be trusted this close to the midterms?

— The alternative reading of “missing” Republican respondents: demoralized rural voters hit by tariffs, diesel, and fertilizer costs rather than only “"shy Trump” voters

— Texas as a GOP money sinkhole: Ken Paxton’s weak fundraising and leaked complaint that he does not control his own campaign’s message

— Candidate quality across the map (Talarico, Roy Cooper, others) and whether Chuck Schumer’s recruitment record looks better people think

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– Who is Matt Lewis? –Matt K. Lewis is a political commentator and the author of Filthy Rich Politicians.

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