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  • How the VIX Surge Is Signaling a Regime Change

    How the VIX Surge Is Signaling a Regime Change
    2026/06/06
    The VIX has surged 34% in five days to 21.51, while the VVIX has only risen 11.4%. Lucas and Luna unpack what this divergence means for investors. They explore why the VIX is climbing faster than options on the VIX, a pattern that historically precedes sharp market moves. The episode drills into the Fed's holding pattern, the labor market's mixed signals, and why the yield curve steepening adds to the uncertainty. No clickbait—just a focused look at what the fear index is really saying as of June 6, 2026. #VIX #VVIX #MarketVolatility #StockMarket #Fed #Inflation #YieldCurve #LaborMarket #JOLTS #Unemployment #Investing #Economics #Economy #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast #MarketRegime #FearIndex Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 分
  • Why Core Inflation Is Stuck Above the Fed's Target

    Why Core Inflation Is Stuck Above the Fed's Target
    2026/06/06
    In this episode of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna dig into the April 2026 CPI and PCE data to understand why core inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed's target despite a cooling economy. They examine a surprising divergence: headline CPI fell to 332.4, but core CPI rose to 335.4, driven by a 0.3% month-over-month increase in core services excluding housing — the so-called 'supercore' category. Lucas explains how a tight labor market with 7.6 million job openings and rising average hourly earnings to $37.50 are keeping service-sector inflation sticky, even as goods prices moderate. Luna points out the paradox that the unemployment rate holds at 4.3%, yet long-term unemployment is surging, hinting at structural shifts that could prolong the inflation problem. They also explore the market's reaction: the VIX spiking 34% to 21.51 while the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.54%, suggesting investors are pricing in persistent inflation risk. The episode concludes with a look ahead to the May jobs report and whether the Fed can afford to stay on hold. #Inflation #CoreCPI #FederalReserve #LaborMarket #JOLTS #Supercore #PCE #MonetaryPolicy #June2026 #EconomicForecast #StickyInflation #TreasuryYield #VIX #WageGrowth #LongTermUnemployment #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #Economics Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • Why Long-Term Unemployment Is Surging in 2026

    Why Long-Term Unemployment Is Surging in 2026
    2026/06/05
    The May jobs report is out Friday, but the real story is the quiet surge in long-term unemployment. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data: job openings hit a two-year high, yet the share of unemployed out of work for 27 weeks or more is climbing. They explore why this mismatch is happening, how it affects wage growth and inflation, and what it signals about the health of the labor market. Plus, a look at the hidden costs for workers and the economy. #LongTermUnemployment #LaborMarket #JobsReport #UnemploymentRate #JOLTS #WageGrowth #Inflation #FederalReserve #EconomicForecast #Podcast #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #JoblessClaims #StructuralUnemployment #SkillsMismatch #May2026 Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 分
  • The Hidden Cost of Long-Term Unemployment in June 2026

    The Hidden Cost of Long-Term Unemployment in June 2026
    2026/06/05
    The May jobs report drops Friday, but beneath the headline payroll number, a troubling trend is building: long-term unemployment is surging. Lucas and Luna dig into the latest data—initial jobless claims spiked to 225,000, and the number of workers jobless for 27 weeks or more is rising fast. They explore why this matters for the Fed's rate path, consumer spending, and the broader economy, and what it means if you're one of the millions caught in the gap. #LongTermUnemployment #JobsReport #May2026 #EconomicForecast #FedPolicy #LaborMarket #InitialJoblessClaims #JoblessRecovery #Hysteresis #ConsumerSpending #UnemploymentRate #WageGrowth #InterestRates #Inflation #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Podcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 分
  • The Hidden Cost of Long-Term Unemployment in June 2026

    The Hidden Cost of Long-Term Unemployment in June 2026
    2026/06/04
    With the May jobs report due Friday, Lucas and Luna dig into a worrying trend beneath the headline numbers: long-term unemployment is surging even as overall job openings hit a two-year high. Using the latest JOLTS data and the Fed's Beige Book anecdotes, they explore why workers who have been out of work for more than six months are getting left behind — and what that means for wage growth, inflation stickiness, and the labor market's structural health. They also touch on the diverging signals between the VIX and VVIX and what the yield curve steepening tells us about recession odds. A specific, data-driven conversation for anyone trying to read the real economy behind the headlines. #LongTermUnemployment #JobsReport #LaborMarket #JOLTS #VIX #VVIX #YieldCurve #Inflation #WageGrowth #May2026 #FOMC #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #FedPolicy #StructuralUnemployment #LaborForceParticipation #ADP Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分
  • How Labor Market Churn Is Reshaping Inflation

    How Labor Market Churn Is Reshaping Inflation
    2026/06/04
    In Episode 30 of The Economic Forecast Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine the surprising disconnect between surging job openings and stagnant wage growth. With JOLTS hitting a two-year high of 7.6 million in April while average hourly earnings barely budged, they explore how labor market churn—workers switching jobs at record rates—is reshaping inflation dynamics. Using fresh data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker, they explain why this churn keeps prices sticky even as headline CPI appears to moderate. The hosts also discuss what this means for the Fed's rate path and why the VIX is creeping higher. Plus, a brief note on how listener support keeps the podcast ad-free. #LaborMarket #JOLTS #WageGrowth #Inflation #FederalReserve #Churn #QuitRate #AtlantaFed #BureauOfLaborStatistics #EconomicForecast #Economics #VIX #JobOpenings #StickyInflation #Hiring #LaborChurn #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    11 分
  • The Labor Market Is Sending Two Conflicting Signals

    The Labor Market Is Sending Two Conflicting Signals
    2026/06/03
    In this episode, Lucas and Luna dive into the surprising divergence between the strong ADP payroll number—122,000 jobs added in May—and the plunge in the Russell 2000, down 1.5% over the past five days. They explore why small-cap stocks are selling off even as the job market appears to firm up, and what this tension means for the Fed's next move. The conversation anchors on the April JOLTS surge to 7.6 million openings versus the flat unemployment rate at 4.3%, and connects these dots to the broader inflation picture, with core CPI at 335.4. Lucas argues the labor market is bifurcated: services hiring is robust, but goods-producing sectors face headwinds from tariffs and the Iran conflict. Luna challenges whether the market is pricing in a recession or just a rotation. Specific, data-driven, and grounded in June 3, 2026 market conditions. #LaborMarket #ADP #JOLTS #Russell2000 #SmallCaps #Fed #Inflation #CoreCPI #UnemploymentRate #Tariffs #IranWar #Payrolls #EconomicData #MarketDivergence #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Forecast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    7 分
  • How Job Openings Surged Without Wage Growth

    How Job Openings Surged Without Wage Growth
    2026/06/03
    April's JOLTS report showed 7.6 million job openings—the highest in two years—yet wage growth remains muted. Lucas and Luna break down the paradox: why employers are posting more roles but not raising pay, and what it says about the labor market's structure in mid-2026. They explore the role of worker churn, sector reallocation, and the Iran war's impact on energy costs reshaping hiring patterns. With the Fed stuck at 3.63% and inflation still sticky, this episode explains why a hot job market hasn't translated into hotter wages—and what that means for the economy ahead. #JOLTS #LaborMarket #JobOpenings #WageGrowth #Inflation #Fed #InterestRates #IranWar #EnergyCosts #WorkerChurn #JoblessClaims #Unemployment #CPI #CorePCE #Economics #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #EconomicForecast Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    8 分