A century-old tech company just took a gut punch from Wall Street. A century-old oil giant hasn't had an exciting headline in years. Ten years from now, which one do you actually want to own?

In this episode, Greg takes the long view on two very different dividend payers. The first is IBM ($IBM), a stock that ran from the low $200s to a high near $325 over the past year as its quantum computing story caught fire. It then dropped back to around $205 after disappointing contract delays spooked the market. Greg walks through why the selloff isn't the end of the story: IBM's debt has improved, revenue is growing again after years of stagnation, and at roughly 17 times earnings, he argues investors are no longer paying for the quantum computing option.

The second is Chevron ($CVX), a stock with none of IBM's drama and, in Greg's view, almost all of the certainty. Diversified across exploration, refining, and chemicals, with a dividend track record that held even when oil prices went negative in 2020, Chevron represents a different kind of long-term bet. It's not a call option on a breakthrough, but a compounding cash flow machine that is also a quiet beneficiary of AI.

Two very different companies, one shared idea: real wealth is built by holding through the boring years, not by chasing the exciting ones.

TOPICS COVERED

[00:41] Introduction: Two Long-Term Stories, Two Different Bets
[03:04] IBM ($IBM): From Story Stock to Speed Bump
[04:47] Inside IBM's Business: Software, Consulting, and Red Hat
[08:41] The Quantum Computing Bet Behind the Stock
[13:44] IBM's 10-Year Dividend Growth Math
[16:24] Chevron ($CVX): The Cash Flow Machine
[18:17] Chevron's Dividend Track Record and Financial Strength
[20:40] Diversification: Upstream, Downstream, and Chemicals
[21:15] Chevron as a Natural Gas and AI Play
[23:49] Why Chevron Over Exxon ($XOM)?
[25:45] Two Long Views, One Lesson in Patience
[28:02] Final Takeaway: It's All About the Waiting

________

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Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here.

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Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

The news says the market is down, up, sideways... but which market? The Dow, the S&P 500, SCHD, gold, real estate—on any given day, they're all doing something different. If you don't know which market is actually yours, sooner or later, one of the others will seduce you into a move you'll regret.

In Episode 60, Greg takes on a question that sounds almost too simple: What is the market? Using six real-world examples—from dividend ETFs to Denver office towers to SpaceX ($SPCX)—he shows how dramatically different markets can move in completely opposite directions at the same time and why investors who haven't clearly defined their market tend to react to the wrong signals at the worst possible moments.

The clearest example is SCHD, Schwab's dividend ETF. From 2022 through 2025, it lagged the S&P 500 by a wide margin in three of four years—enough to break most investors. Then 2026 hits: SCHD is up nearly 20%, and the S&P is under 9%. The investors who stayed were right all along. They just had to get comfortable with 3 years of underperformance to realize the benefit. Greg explains why that gap—between being right and feeling right—is where a lot of investors lose focus.

The same pattern runs through two 29-story office towers in downtown Denver that sold for $5 million total, while the equivalent square footage five miles away in Cherry Creek would fetch over $63 million. Or Microsoft ($MSFT), which swung from $550 to $355 to $460 to $390 in a single year while its dividend grew at 10% annually without interruption. Price and value are not the same thing—and once you know which market you're actually in, the noise from every other market gets a lot easier to ignore.

All kinds of “markets” can work. The investors who build wealth aren't necessarily picking the best one; they're staying committed to the one that works for them.

Topics Covered:

[00:11] Introduction & 5th Year Anniversary
[03:06] What Is "The Market"? Defining the Question
[06:04] SCHD vs. S&P 500: Four Years, Two Very Different Outcomes
[10:00] The Three Tiers of Dividend Investing
[12:53] Denver Real Estate: Same City, Two Different Markets
[19:28] Gold: A Market With Its Own Rules
[21:35] SpaceX: When Valuation Defies Convention
[24:19] Microsoft ($MSFT): Price vs. Value in Real Time
[27:30] Takeaway: Pick Your Battles, Win the War
[31:34] Close: Get on the Line and Stay on the Line (GDP Eventually Goes Up)

________

📖 Free Book: Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth

Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here.

📰 Monthly Newsletter: Observations on the Market

📧 Questions or comments: dcm.team@growmydollar.com

Send us Fan Mail

________

Resources:

📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management
📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models

________

If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show.

Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X

________

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.

Everyone's talking about what AI is going to disrupt. The question most investors aren't asking: What happens after that disruption, and who actually wins? The obvious answer and the right answer are rarely the same thing.

In this episode, Greg introduces a framework he first encountered through Howard Marks: first-level vs. second-level thinking. First-level thinking reacts to what's in front of you. Second-level thinking follows the chain of consequences and the ripple effects most people ignore. In an era where AI can reshape an industry in months, the gap between those two ways of thinking has never been more costly to ignore.

From there, Greg walks through real portfolio positions—Intel (INTC) and Accenture (ACN)—to show how second-level thinking plays out in practice. He also runs through a handful of names—Union Pacific (UNP), UPS (UPS), GE Vernova (GEV), Chevron (CVX), Lockheed Martin (LMT), General Dynamics (GD), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Merck (MRK)—to illustrate which kinds of businesses AI threatens, which ones it quietly strengthens, and why some of the most "boring" dividend stocks may be the most defensible investments of the next decade. The core argument: brands, software, and moats built on perception are vulnerable. Logistics, infrastructure, and physical production are not, and AI may actually make them stronger.

Topics Covered:

[00:41] Introduction & why AI matters for dividend investors

[04:47] First-level vs. second-level thinking — the Howard Marks framework

[08:43] AI is accelerating disruption — and may be technology's own worst enemy

[11:21] Are strong brands and moats as durable as we thought?

[13:50] Why physical infrastructure may be the best AI defense

[15:19] Intel ($INTC) — patience, conviction, and the US chip story

[18:16] Accenture ($ACN) — the market's fear may be first-level thinking

[22:21] Union Pacific ($UNP), UPS ($UPS) — logistics AI can't replace

[24:27] Rapid-fire second-level takes: GEV, CVX, LMT, GD, JNJ, MRK

[28:08] Final takeaway: the game has changed, sustainable dividend growth requires a new lens

________

Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth

Dividend growth investing sounds simple, but doing it well for decades is not. That’s why we wrote Dividend Growth: The Quiet Engine of Wealth—a practical guide to building a framework you can stick with when things get uncomfortable. You can get a free copy here.

Plus, join our market newsletter for more on dividend growth investing.

Send us Fan Mail

________

Resources:

📅 Schedule a meeting: Financial Planning & Portfolio Management
📊 Getting into the weeds: DCM Investment Reports & Models

________

If you found this valuable, subscribing and leaving a review helps more investors find the show.

Instagram | Facebook | LinkedIn | X

________

Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. Every investor should consider whether an investment strategy is right for them and all the risks involved. Stocks, including dividend stocks, are volatile and can lose money. Denewiler Capital Management may or may not have positions in the publicly traded companies mentioned herein.