The Bond Market in 2026: Unpacking Dynamics and Trends
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The Bond Market in 2026: Unpacking Dynamics and Trends
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In the latest episode of "Credit Matters", Pranav Gupta (MD IG Syndicate, Morgan Stanley) joins Shankar Ramakrishnan and Bruce Clark to discuss record primary dollar bond issuance driven by U.S. and Yankee banks, with the big six U.S. banks nearing $150 billion by Q3 and already surpassing last year.
Gupta explains how renewed Middle East escalation, including Red Sea attacks, has pushed the 10-year Treasury to around 4.70 and added inflation uncertainty ahead of an upcoming Fed meeting, while strong U.S. growth and persistent inflows keep investment-grade spreads tight.
They cover why issuers have accepted “higher for longer,” the return of longer-dated issuance, key supply drivers (CapEx, M&A, loan growth), preferred Tier 1 refinancing and call dynamics, funding diversification into non-USD markets, improving sentiment toward BDC/private credit issuance, and faster syndication enabled by market structure and technology.
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