This episode explores a central paradox of 2026: global instability is accelerating just as Donald Trump’s political power appears to be weakening. Using Francis Fukuyama’s argument that Trump has already reached “peak power,” we examine how domestic resistance, electoral headwinds, and institutional pushback are eroding his ability to govern—even as his policies continue to fuel conflict at home and abroad.

Drawing on recent analyses from the Council on Foreign Relations, Chatham House, and the European Council on Foreign Relations, the episode asks whether a weakened U.S. president can survive mounting domestic and international crises—and what this means for allies, especially Europe and Ukraine, in a world no longer anchored by reliable American leadership.

Bibliography

Chatham House. 2025. The World in 2026. Video podcast. December 19, 2025.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/12/world-2026-chatham-house-video-podcast.

Council on Foreign Relations. 2025. Conflicts to Watch in 2026. New York: Council on Foreign Relations.
https://www.cfr.org/report/conflicts-watch-2026.

European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). 2025. “Only Europe Can Save Ukraine from Putin and Trump — But Will It?” December 2025.
https://ecfr.eu/article/only-europe-can-save-ukraine-from-putin-and-trump-but-will-it/.

Fukuyama, Francis. 2025. “Don’t Panic, Trump Is Flagging.” Persuasion, December 17, 2025.

This episode unpacks the seismic shift in U.S. foreign policy revealed in Trump’s 2025 National Security Strategy. It explains how “America First” reshapes alliances, unsettles Europe, reassures autocrats, and risks weakening the foundations of U.S. global power.

Bibliography

– National Security Strategy of the United States of America (2025). The White House.

– Emily Harding, “The National Security Strategy: The Good, the Not So Great, and the Alarm Bells,” Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), 5 December 2025. CSIS+1

– Laurel Rapp, “Trump’s new national security strategy: Cut deals, hammer Europe, and tread gently around autocrats,” Chatham House, 9 December 2025. chathamhouse.org+1

– Carl Bildt, “Reading Trump’s National Security Strategy: Europe through a distorted lens,” European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), 9 December 2025. European Council on Foreign Relations+1

– Christopher Caldwell, “Trump Is Not Attacking Europe. He’s Attacking Something Else,” The New York Times, 11 December 2025 (referenced via social share). Mastodon hosted on mastodon.social

– “Danish Intelligence Report Raises Concerns About U.S.,” reported in The New York Times, summarized via Political Wire, 11 December 2025. Political Wire

This week’s analysis looks at the future of Europe and Russia in a moment that feels similar to the film Casablanca. While Russia shows military strength and active sabotage in Europe, it also faces deep long-term weaknesses. At the same time, the United States is divided: part of America continues to defend Europe, while the MAGA movement prefers nationalist politics and even supports far-right groups inside the EU.

Europe is now deciding whether it should keep depending on the United States or become a real strategic power of its own. Using recent investigations, expert opinions, and international news, the lesson explains how today’s choices will shape the balance between democracy, security, and authoritarian influence in the years ahead.

Bibliography

• De Vries, Catherine, and Ilke Toygür. “How Europeans Can Go Beyond ‘Limiting Unpredictability’ and Respond to the MAGA Doctrine.” European Council on Foreign Relations, 13 November 2025.
• Friedman, Thomas L. “The ‘Useful Idiots’ From America Whom Putin Is Playing Like a Flute.” The New York Times, 4 December 2025.
• “German Parliament Backs Controversial Military Service Law Amid Russian Threat.” Reuters, 5 December 2025.
• Shear, Michael D., Jeanna Smialek, and Lara Jakes. “Trump Administration Says Europe Faces ‘Civilizational Erasure’.” The New York Times, 5 December 2025 (summarised with additional reporting from Reuters/AP/Euronews).
• “Russia’s Putin Found ‘Morally Responsible’ for Nerve Agent Death in UK.” Reuters, 4 December 2025; see also Hansard, “Dawn Sturgess Inquiry.” UK Parliament, 4 December 2025.