If you've been watching real estate content online lately, you've probably heard a lot of people telling you rates are about to come down. In this video, I'll walk through why the data says otherwise, and what it means for the deals in front of you.

Here's the question everyone's asking: how high will interest rates go, and how long will they stay there?

The latest data gave us a clear signal. Headline inflation came in at 4.2% against an expected 3.8%. Core inflation sits at 2.9%. The 10-year Treasury jumped another 20 basis points. And with the Iran conflict keeping energy costs elevated, inflation is proving stickier than the market wants to admit.

Kevin Warsh has signaled it will follow the data, and if inflation stays sticky, that could mean rates move up, not down. We've said it for two years: this is higher for longer, a new normal, and it's not reversing anytime soon.

So what does that mean for you and me? It means a lot of investors who bought last year betting on an 18-to-24-month drop in rates are going to feel it. And it means the rest of us have to be more discriminating, factoring higher rates into every deal we look at over the next two to three years.

But here's what's also true: the opportunity is real. Distressed deals are coming into the market at a basis where the cash-on-cash return actually works. And single-family residential - far less rate-sensitive than commercial - is softening in ways that are opening real windows.

Real estate isn't out of favor. It just rewards the investor willing to dig deeper and underwrite with a clear, discriminating eye.

This video breaks down how to think through all of it.

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