エピソード

  • E5: The Leak That Sealed It – Dobbs and the Decision to Overturn Roe v. Wade

    E5: The Leak That Sealed It – Dobbs and the Decision to Overturn Roe v. Wade
    2026/06/23
    In 1973, seven justices built a 50-year precedent on the right to privacy. In 2022, five justices tore it down – and a leaked memo may be the reason none of them could change their mind. This episode breaks down Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, the Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade, through the lens of quantum cognition.Dobbs began as a 15-week abortion ban in Mississippi, deliberately written to be challenged. By the time it reached the Supreme Court, a Federalist Society-shaped conservative majority was already in place. But the real twist came in May 2022, when Politico published Justice Samuel Alito's draft majority opinion – the first leak of its kind in modern Supreme Court history. We look at how that leak changed the group dynamics of the decision itself.Using the four core concepts of quantum cognition – superposition, interference, contextuality, and non-commutative effects – we map the competing draft opinions on the table (Roberts's narrow ruling, the conservative majority's full overturn, the liberal dissent), the polarization and infighting reported inside the Court, and the unique context conservative justices used to frame Dobbs as correction rather than activism.What you'll take away from this episode:- Why group decisions can't be modeled the same way as individual choices- How a single piece of context – a leaked document – can "collapse" a group's superposed positions into a locked-in outcome- Why textualism and originalism function as a context-dependent decision frame, not a neutral defaultThis is not a debate about abortion. It's a decision-science breakdown of how nine people, under public pressure, reached an irreversible 5-4 ruling. ================================= Primary Sources:Busemeyer, J. R., & Wang, Z. (2015). What is quantum cognition, and how is it applied to psychology? Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24(3), 163–169. https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721414568663Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2022). Quantum cognition. Annual Review of Psychology, 73, 749–778. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-033020-123501 Busemeyer, J. R., Wang, Z., & Townsend, J. T. (2006). Quantum dynamics of human decision-making. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 50(3), 220–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2006.01.003Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2009). A quantum probability explanation for violations of 'rational' decision theory. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276(1665), 2171–2178. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2009.0121================================= Secondary Sources:Three observations on the Alito draftAlito's originalist jurisprudence analyzedSunstein on the Alito draftFederalist Society's court influenceFull Dobbs opinion text (Cornell)Dobbs opinion PDF (SCOTUS.gov)Dobbs case overview (Ballotpedia)Dobbs case overview (Constitution Center)Planned Parenthood v. Casey historyRoe v. Wade 1973 to 2022 timelineRoe v. Wade background (History.com)Why Roe was overturnedRoe v. Wade (Britannica)Roe overturned (Planned Parenthood)Majority vs. dissent schism (NPR)Mississippi 15-week test caseJudge rebukes Mississippi's strategyCourt poised to roll back rights (SCOTUSblog)Oral argument coverage (Courthouse News)SCOTUS leak investigation report (CNN)Leaked Dobbs opinion explained (Harvard)Leak investigation fails (SCOTUSblog)Politico: Dobbs draft opinion leakPolitico: Roberts and the Court=================================Episode Tags / Keywords:Dobbs v Jackson, Roe v Wade overturned, Supreme Court decision making, quantum cognition, decision science, Federalist Society, Samuel Alito leaked opinion, SCOTUS Politico leak, group decision making, cognitive bias, behavioral psychology, constitutional law podcast, originalism textualism, judicial decision making, Mississippi abortion ban
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    21 分
  • E4: Plata o Plomo: Pablo Escobar’s Fatal Decision to Run for Congress

    E4: Plata o Plomo: Pablo Escobar’s Fatal Decision to Run for Congress
    2026/06/23
    At his peak, Pablo Escobar was one of the wealthiest men in the world with a net worth of over $30B and had built a reputation as Colombia's own Robin Hood – funding soccer fields, schools, and housing for the poor. He had wealth, power, and public love. So why did he risk everything to run for Colombian Congress?In 1982, Escobar entered politics, only to be publicly rejected by reformers Luis Carlos Galán and Rodrigo Lara Bonilla for his cartel ties. He found a workaround through congressman Jairo Ortega and won a seat – but his real goal may have been immunity from extradition to the United States. When Lara Bonilla, Colombia's Minister of Justice, exposed and expelled him from Congress, Escobar's public image collapsed. Within a year, Bonilla was assassinated which began the wave of killings that would claim three presidential candidates, an attorney general, and more than a thousand police officers.This episode uses the quantum cognition framework – superposition, interference, and contextuality – to examine the moment Escobar's political ambition turned a folk hero into one of history's most violent criminals. We look at the competing identities Escobar held simultaneously (Robin Hood, drug lord, aspiring statesman) and what happens when public rejection forces a collapse into a single, more destructive role.Listeners will walk away with:- A clearer picture of how Escobar's congressional run directly triggered Colombia's narco-terrorism era- A working model for how quantum cognition explains decisions that look irrational in hindsight- A framework for thinking about identity collapse under public humiliation – relevant well beyond Escobar's story================================= Primary Sources:Busemeyer, J. R., & Wang, Z. (2015). What is quantum cognition, and how is it applied to psychology? Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24(3), 163–169. https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721414568663Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2022). Quantum cognition. Annual Review of Psychology, 73, 749–778. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-033020-123501 Busemeyer, J. R., Wang, Z., & Townsend, J. T. (2006). Quantum dynamics of human decision-making. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 50(3), 220–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2006.01.003Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2009). A quantum probability explanation for violations of 'rational' decision theory. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276(1665), 2171–2178. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2009.0121Aerts, D., & Aerts, S. (1995). Applications of quantum statistics in psychological studies of decision processes. Foundations of Science, 1, 85–97. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00208726Aerts, D. (2009). Quantum structure in cognition. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 53(5), 314–348. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2009.04.005Busemeyer, J. R., Pothos, E. M., Franco, R., & Trueblood, J. S. (2011). A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment errors. Psychological Review, 118(2), 193–218. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0022542================================= Secondary Sources:PBS Frontline: Godfather of CocaineColombia Reports: Escobar ProfileBiography.com: Escobar BiographyNoiser: Political Aspirations and ConsequencesInsightCrime: Organized Crime ProfileAwesomeStories: Congress and ExtraditionResearchGate: Robin Hood Social ConstructionBrookings: Colombia Dangerous LiaisonsSolidarity/Marxists.org: Neoliberalism and ViolenceA&E: Escobar Case FileTroy University Journal: Escobar and Cold WarECPS: Colombia PopulismInfobae: Lara Bonilla AssassinationTimenote: Rodrigo Lara Profile================================= Episode Tags / Keywords:Pablo Escobar, Pablo Escobar Congress, Medellin Cartel, Colombian Robin Hood, quantum cognition, decision science, behavioral economics, cognitive bias, Rodrigo Lara Bonilla, plata o plomo, narco-terrorism, Colombia history, political decision making, superposition, contextuality
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    20 分
  • E3: “0% probability”: Why Musk Walked Away From OpenAI

    E3: “0% probability”: Why Musk Walked Away From OpenAI
    2026/06/23
    In 2018, Elon Musk walked away from OpenAI, calling its odds of success "0%." Eight years later, OpenAI is valued at $852 billion and preparing one of the largest IPOs in history – and Musk has spent the years since suing to unwind it.This episode traces the real story behind Musk's exit: his $38 million in early funding, his failed bid for board control, his attempt to merge OpenAI into Tesla, and the internal note from OpenAI president Greg Brockman that read, "This is our only chance to get rid of Elon." It's a story about a founder who wanted control more than he wanted the mission to succeed without him – and who left to build xAI as the fastest path to the AI capability he no longer had a claim to.Using the quantum cognition framework – superposition, interference, contextuality, and non-commutative effects – we unpack what classical decision theory misses about Musk's choice. Why does a man who predicted 0% odds of success keep fighting to prove himself right? What role did a missed $38 million bet play in years of litigation? And was this ever really a business decision, or a power struggle dressed up as one?Listeners will come away with:- A clear timeline of the Musk-OpenAI breakup, from 2015 founding to the 2026 trial- A working introduction to quantum cognition's four core concepts- A framework for spotting when "principled" decisions are actually power plays================================= Primary Sources:Busemeyer, J. R., & Wang, Z. (2015). What is quantum cognition, and how is it applied to psychology? Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24(3), 163–169. https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721414568663Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2022). Quantum cognition. Annual Review of Psychology, 73, 749–778. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-033020-123501 Busemeyer, J. R., Wang, Z., & Townsend, J. T. (2006). Quantum dynamics of human decision-making. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 50(3), 220–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2006.01.003Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2009). A quantum probability explanation for violations of 'rational' decision theory. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276(1665), 2171–2178. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2009.0121Aerts, D., & Aerts, S. (1995). Applications of quantum statistics in psychological studies of decision processes. Foundations of Science, 1, 85–97. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00208726Aerts, D. (2009). Quantum structure in cognition. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 53(5), 314–348. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2009.04.005Busemeyer, J. R., Pothos, E. M., Franco, R., & Trueblood, J. S. (2011). A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment errors. Psychological Review, 118(2), 193–218. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0022542================================= Secondary Sources:Musk trial live updatesOpenAI's account with internal emailsInternal emails disclosed in litigationTrial day 2 live updatesMusk testimony annotatedMusk's souring relationship with OpenAITestimony takeawaysPage vs. Musk on AI riskMusk testifies Page called him speciesistMusk relitigates old friendshipAI safety dispute sparked OpenAIMusk accuses leaders of looting nonprofitOpenAI Wikipedia overviewHow OpenAI lost MuskMusk v. Altman week 1 updatesWhat is xAI?xAI Wikipedia entryMusk leaves OpenAI boardMusk testifies against charity lootingFounders from allies to enemiesWhy Apple fired Steve JobsSteve Jobs firing explained================================= Episode Tags / KeywordsElon Musk, OpenAI, Sam Altman, xAI, quantum cognition, decision science, behavioral economics, cognitive bias, Tesla, AI lawsuit, Greg Brockman, startup power struggle, founder conflict, AI industry, decision making podcast
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    16 分
  • E2: Truman's Hardest Call – A Quantum Cognition Breakdown of 1947

    E2: Truman's Hardest Call – A Quantum Cognition Breakdown of 1947
    2026/06/23
    It's 1947. You command the most powerful military on Earth, including the only nuclear arsenal in existence. Europe is starving, Stalin is circling, and your own Congress won't give you an easy path forward. Do you bomb, blockade, walk away – or write a check?That was Harry Truman's actual decision after the brutal winter of 1946-47, when over a million Europeans and Soviets died and Soviet-aligned parties were gaining ground in France and Italy. Secretary of State George Marshall returned from Moscow convinced Stalin was deliberately stalling reconstruction. Out of that crisis came the Marshall Plan, a $15 billion bet (roughly $160 billion today) that economic stability, not military force, was the way to stop communism's spread and rebuild a continent. It worked well enough to win Marshall a Nobel Peace Prize, the only professional soldier to ever be a laureate.This episode uses the quantum cognition framework to unpack how Truman actually arrived at that decision. We walk through the superposition of options he was weighing from the punitive Morgenthau Plan to de-industrialize Germany, to a Truman Doctrine of military aid only, to simply letting Europe rebuild itself. Then we look at the interference: Truman's own WWI service, his belief that Versailles and isolationism caused WWII, his working-class roots, and the imposter syndrome of inheriting the presidency after FDR's death. Finally, we examine the contextual pressures – Nazi propaganda that had already weaponized the Morgenthau Plan, Soviet narratives painting America as an imperial power, and the economic reality that a communist Western Europe meant a hostile landmass from the Atlantic to the Pacific.Listeners will walk away with:- A working model for how superposition, interference, and context shape high-stakes decisions – not just Truman's- The actual options Truman considered before settling on the Marshall Plan, including the ones history forgot- Why a decision built on economics, not weapons, became the most influential American foreign policy move of the last century – and the Cold War it set in motion================================= Primary Sources:Busemeyer, J. R., & Wang, Z. (2015). What is quantum cognition, and how is it applied to psychology? Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24(3), 163–169. https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721414568663Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2022). Quantum cognition. Annual Review of Psychology, 73, 749–778. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-033020-123501 Busemeyer, J. R., Wang, Z., & Townsend, J. T. (2006). Quantum dynamics of human decision-making. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 50(3), 220–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2006.01.003================================= Secondary Sources:Marshall's Harvard speech — full textTruman's 1947 diary — discovered 2003Truman Library: Marshall Plan documentsMorgenthau Plan — original State Dept. documentTruman presidential papers archiveMarshall Plan: signing, origins, Cold War contextMarshall Plan: outcomes, GDP, communist containmentMarshall Plan: design, accomplishments, significanceMarshall Plan: WWII Museum overviewEuropean winter 1946–47: severity and consequencesSoviet famine 1946–47: deaths and Cold War contextMorgenthau Plan: deindustrialization & Nazi propaganda useTruman foreign policy: Versailles, League of Nations lessonsStalin, Cominform, France & Italy communist influenceHarvard Gazette: Marshall speech 70th anniversary================================= Episode Tags / Keywords:Marshall Plan, Harry Truman, George Marshall, Cold War origins, Truman Doctrine, quantum cognition, decision science, behavioral economics, post-WWII Europe, foreign policy decisions, cognitive bias, Soviet containment, presidential decision making, Morgenthau Plan, history podcast
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    16 分
  • E1: Why Did Trump Choose War With Iran? A Quantum Cognition Breakdown

    E1: Why Did Trump Choose War With Iran? A Quantum Cognition Breakdown
    2026/06/23
    This week, the U.S. and Iran signed a deal to formally end their war – reopening the Strait of Hormuz, extending the ceasefire into a lasting agreement, and closing a conflict that cost at minimum $113 Billion and thousands of casualties since it began on February 28, 2026. It was supposed to last weeks. It took over 100 days.This episode traces the full arc: why Trump chose war over a deal in the first place – Iran's nuclear program, its terrorist network, the fight for the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S.-Israel alliance – and what changed between the February ultimatum Iran rejected and the memorandum both sides just signed.Using the quantum cognition framework, we break down the four core concepts – superposition, interference, contextuality, and non-commutativity – and apply them to both ends of this decision: why escalation looked like the only option to President Trump in February.Listeners will walk away with:- A full timeline from the February ultimatum to this week's signed peace deal- A working model (quantum cognition) for understanding why leaders escalate – and how to mitigate escalation- A historical parallel to the Iraq War's "six weeks" miscalculation, and what separates wars that find an exit from those that don'tThis is a non-political breakdown of a highly political decision – the goal is understanding the mechanics, not the politics. For a deeper look at why de-escalation is so psychologically difficult in conflict, check out the Superposed Substack for more.=================================Primary Sources:Busemeyer, J. R., & Wang, Z. (2015). What is quantum cognition, and how is it applied to psychology? Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24(3), 163–169. https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721414568663Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2022). Quantum cognition. Annual Review of Psychology, 73, 749–778. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-033020-123501 Busemeyer, J. R., Wang, Z., & Townsend, J. T. (2006). Quantum dynamics of human decision-making. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 50(3), 220–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2006.01.003Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2009). A quantum probability explanation for violations of 'rational' decision theory. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276(1665), 2171–2178. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2009.0121Aerts, D., & Aerts, S. (1995). Applications of quantum statistics in psychological studies of decision processes. Foundations of Science, 1, 85–97. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00208726Aerts, D. (2009). Quantum structure in cognition. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 53(5), 314–348. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2009.04.005Busemeyer, J. R., Pothos, E. M., Franco, R., & Trueblood, J. S. (2011). A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment errors. Psychological Review, 118(2), 193–218. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0022542Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2013). Can quantum probability provide a new direction for cognitive modeling? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 36(3), 255–274. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X12001525 Wang, Z., Busemeyer, J. R., Atmanspacher, H., & Pothos, E. M. (2013). The potential of using quantum theory to build models of cognition. Topics in Cognitive Science, 5(4), 672–688. https://doi.org/10.1111/tops.12043================================= Secondary Sources:War's economic burdenDaily cost estimatesLive spending trackerCasualties reportedWho is winningIran's nuclear historyCongressional Research Service briefIran's global terror networkIran state-sponsored terrorismStrait of Hormuz oil security=================================Episode Tags / KeywordsIran peace deal, Trump Iran war, 2026 Iran war, Strait of Hormuz reopening, quantum cognition, decision science, Iran ceasefire, Islamabad MOU, behavioral economics, foreign policy decision making, cognitive bias, Trump foreign policy, Iraq War comparison, war escalation psychology, Superposed podcast
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    23 分
  • E0: Introduction to Superposed & Quantum Cognition

    E0: Introduction to Superposed & Quantum Cognition
    2026/06/23

    You and I make over 35,000 decisions a day. Every one is an opportunity. But in today's world we can be so inundated with information and uncertainty, it can be hard to know what decisions to make. Luckily, quantum cognition provides a framework to better understand our decisions and make more fulfilling choices.

    Welcome to Superposed – a podcast that applies the principles of quantum cognition to the most consequential decisions ever made. Host Aidan Lewis breaks down the hidden architecture of human judgment: why people facing identical circumstances make completely different choices, why the order of information changes what we believe, and why context can flip a decision entirely.

    Classical decision science treats choices as logical calculations. Quantum cognition reveals what that model misses. Four core principles – superposition, interference, contextuality, and non-commutative effects – explain paradoxes in human behavior that economics and psychology have struggled to account for for decades.

    In this intro episode, you'll get the conceptual foundation:

    - Superposition: why multiple possible decisions exist simultaneously until the moment of commitment

    - Interference: how your history, motivations, and mental state modulate which option you're most likely to choose

    - Contextuality: why the same choice in a different environment can produce a completely different result

    - Non-commutative effects: why the order you encounter information in quietly rewires your judgment

    Each episode ahead applies these tools to a specific real-world decision — from geopolitical crises to business pivots to personal turning points — so you leave with sharper mental models you can actually use.

    Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts, and follow along on Substack for the companion articles.

    ===============================================

    Primary Sources:

    Busemeyer, J. R., & Wang, Z. (2015). What is quantum cognition, and how is it applied to psychology? Current Directions in Psychological Science, 24(3), 163–169. https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721414568663

    Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2022). Quantum cognition. Annual Review of Psychology, 73, 749–778. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-psych-033020-123501

    Busemeyer, J. R., Wang, Z., & Townsend, J. T. (2006). Quantum dynamics of human decision-making. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 50(3), 220–241. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2006.01.003

    Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2009). A quantum probability explanation for violations of 'rational' decision theory. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 276(1665), 2171–2178. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2009.0121

    Aerts, D., & Aerts, S. (1995). Applications of quantum statistics in psychological studies of decision processes. Foundations of Science, 1, 85–97. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00208726

    Aerts, D. (2009). Quantum structure in cognition. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 53(5), 314–348. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmp.2009.04.005

    Busemeyer, J. R., Pothos, E. M., Franco, R., & Trueblood, J. S. (2011). A quantum theoretical explanation for probability judgment errors. Psychological Review, 118(2), 193–218. https://doi.org/10.1037/a0022542

    Pothos, E. M., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2013). Can quantum probability provide a new direction for cognitive modeling? Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 36(3), 255–274. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0140525X12001525

    Wang, Z., Busemeyer, J. R., Atmanspacher, H., & Pothos, E. M. (2013). The potential of using quantum theory to build models of cognition. Topics in Cognitive Science, 5(4), 672–688. https://doi.org/10.1111/tops.12043


    Tags / Keywords

    quantum cognition, decision making podcast, behavioral psychology, cognitive bias, decision science, superposition, mental models, human judgment, behavioral economics, psychology of decisions, Aidan Lewis, Superposed podcast, order effects, contextuality, cognitive science
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    5 分