『Superposed』のカバーアート

Superposed

Superposed

著者： Aidan Lewis
無料で聴く

Every decision exists in superposition — multiple outcomes, all possible, until you choose. But how do you know which decision to make? Superposed applies quantum cognition — an emerging framework that uses quantum mechanics principles to explain how humans make decisions — to history's most consequential choices. Learn from this deeper perspective on how political, business, and scientific leaders have made the decisions that effect our everyday lives to gain a sharper mental model for the decisions you face today.Aidan Lewis 科学
エピソード
  • E15: The Cost of Deciding Too Fast – Dr. Peter Kvam on How Humans (and AI) Rush Judgments

    E15: The Cost of Deciding Too Fast – Dr. Peter Kvam on How Humans (and AI) Rush Judgments
    2026/09/01

    We're wired to want closure. The moment information tips us far enough in one direction, we stop gathering more and call it a decision – and that instinct, argues Ohio State decision scientist Dr. Peter Kvam, is quietly costing us better judgment, in politics, relationships, and now in AI systems too.

    Dr. Kvam – head of Ohio State University’s Decision Sciences Collaborative – walks through why rushing to commit makes opinions more extreme, not more accurate: once you decide, you stop searching for information that might complicate the picture, and the "loudest" information (the most emotionally charged, most polarizing) is what gets you there fastest. We trace how that same rush-to-judgment pattern shows up when radiologists lean too hard on AI summaries, when a cancer-detection model quietly learned to read a hospital's watermark instead of the actual pathology, and when any of us fill out a spreadsheet to "decide" a job offer we'd already picked in our gut. Along the way, Kvam offers a genuinely useful reframe – rate the quality of your options instead of forcing a binary choice – and explains, in plain language, why "measuring" a belief (i.e. making someone decide) is mathematically similar to what happens when you measure a quantum particle.

    =================================

    Links:

    📖Substack: https://superposeddecisions.substack.com/

    📺YouTube: @Superposed_Decisions

    🤝LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aidan-m-lewis/

    =================================

    What you'll take away:

    • Why the fastest, most confident decisions are usually the least informed ones – and why "sitting in uncertainty" is a decision-making skill, not a weakness

    • Why AI's most dangerous errors don't look like mistakes – they look like a cancer-detection model that's "right" for a reason that has nothing to do with cancer

    • Why simply reframing a decision as "rate this option's quality" instead of "should I choose this" measurably reduces polarization and extremism

    =================================

    Primary Sources

    Kvam, P. D., Sokratous, K., Fitch, A., & Hintze, A. (2024). Using artificial intelligence to fit, compare, evaluate, and discover computational models of decision behavior. Decision, 11(4), 599–618. https://doi.org/10.1037/dec0000237

    Kvam, P. D., Marley, A. A. J., & Heathcote, A. (2023). A unified theory of discrete and continuous responding. Psychological Review, 130(2), 368–400. https://doi.org/10.1037/rev0000378

    Kvam, P. D., Alaukik, A., Mims, C. E., Martemyanova, A., & Baldwin, M. (2022). Rational inference strategies and the genesis of polarization and extremism. Scientific Reports, 12, 7344. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-11389-0

    Konstantina Sokratous, Anderson K. Fitch, Peter D. Kvam,

    How to ask twenty questions and win: Machine learning tools for assessing preferences from small samples of willingness-to-pay prices, Journal of Choice Modelling, 48, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jocm.2023.100418

    P.D. Kvam,T.J. Pleskac,S. Yu, & J.R. Busemeyer, Interference effects of choice on confidence: Quantum characteristics of evidence accumulation, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 112 (34) 10645-10650, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1500688112 (2015)

    =================================

    Secondary Sources:

    Cognition & Decision Modeling Laboratory, Dr. Peter Kvam (Ohio State University): https://peterkvam.com/research.html

    The Ohio State University Decision Sciences Collaborative: https://decisionsciences.osu.edu/

    Dr. Peter Kvam Faculty Page: https://psychology.osu.edu/people/kvam.4

    続きを読む 一部表示
    1 時間
  • E14: How to save a country – Zelensky's Decision That Kept Ukraine From Falling

    E14: How to save a country – Zelensky's Decision That Kept Ukraine From Falling
    2026/08/25
    It's February 2022. Russian paratroopers are storming an airfield outside Kyiv, attacks are storming in from three directions, and the president of Ukraine has just been told his government may fall within 72 hours. A year earlier, Volodymyr Zelensky was a little more than a sitcom actor turned president with approval ratings so low that allies quietly doubted whether he could lead a crisis at all. Now the Americans and British are offering him a seat out – and what he says next will decide whether Ukraine has a government left to defend.=================================Links: 📖Substack: https://superposeddecisions.substack.com/ 📺YouTube: @Superposed_Decisions 🤝LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aidan-m-lewis/=================================Roughly 34 helicopters and airborne troops stormed Hostomel Airport outside Kyiv to open an air bridge for reinforcements, but Ukrainian forces retook the airfield after a day of fighting, while the Belarusian armor column stalled into a 35-mile roadblock. With Kyiv's fall reportedly expected within 72 hours and Zelensky marked "target No. 1," the US and UK both offered evacuation. He refused, reportedly telling US officials, "I need ammunition, not a ride."=================================We run Zelensky's decision through the four pillars of quantum cognition. In superposition, he held at least four live options – flee the country, hide inside Ukraine, stay in Kyiv silently, or stay in Kyiv and become the public face of resistance – and collapsed toward the riskiest one. Interference did the collapsing: the internal pull of family history, national identity, and the sense that "we have no other Ukraine" overrode the external pressure to save himself, showing how internal drives pushed him toward taking risk for the collective good. Contextuality shaped which options were even visible – a 72-hour deadline, a target on his back, and a grandfather's war against fascism all narrowed what "staying" could mean. And non-commutative effects sealed it: the moment his video hit twenty million views, the world had measured his choice, and there was no walking it back. =================================What you'll take away:Courage isn't the absence of fear – it's using fear to power your decisions.You are your own hero. It doesn’t take someone “made of steel”. All you have to do is decide to overcome the context you are given.The options that survive contextual pressure are usually the ones an identity was already built to choose =================================Primary Sources:Born, D., & Caligiuri, P. (2024). Leaders' Psychological Bravery. Journal of Character and Leadership Development, 11(1), 62–65. https://doi.org/10.58315/jcld.v11.292Wang, J., Sun, D., Jiang, J., Wang, H., Cheng, X., Ruan, Q., & Wang, Y. (2022). The effect of courage on stress: The mediating mechanism of behavioral inhibition and behavioral activation in high-risk occupations. Frontiers in Psychology, 13, 961387. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.961387=================================Secondary Sources:Courage: Why some people act despite fearCBS News – Zelenskyy confirms "ammunition, not a ride" quoteThe Intercept – Zelensky's defiant Kyiv selfie videosCFR Global Conflict Tracker – War in UkraineThePrint/The Conversation – Zelensky's servant leadership analysisWar on the Rocks – Battle of Hostomel AirportUNHCR – Ukraine emergency human cost explainerCNN – Zelensky refuses US evacuation offerFrontiers in Psychology – Zelenskyy's social media wartime strategyNPR – Zelenskyy comedian to wartime icon profileThe Daily Telegraph (via PressReader) – Zelensky refused to abandon Kyiv compoundCNN – Analysis: Zelensky is not Churchill, he's a more unlikely heroThe Collector – King George VI leading Britain through WWII
    続きを読む 一部表示
    23 分
  • E13: Is Silence the Boldest Move? – Fauci's 100+ Pleas of the Fifth Seen Through Quantum Cognition

    E13: Is Silence the Boldest Move? – Fauci's 100+ Pleas of the Fifth Seen Through Quantum Cognition
    2026/08/18
    For 38 years, Anthony Fauci answered Congress's questions – through 7 presidential administrations and the most consequential public health crisis in a century. Then a senator he calls "unhinged" called him back to the stand for one more round, and the man who spent a career giving testimony gave the same seven words instead: “I decline to answer”, on the advice of his counsel. He said it more than 100 times. The question isn't whether Fauci had something to hide – it's what has to be true about your options before silence becomes the smartest thing you can say.=================================Links: 📖Substack: https://superposeddecisions.substack.com/ 📺YouTube: @Superposed_Decisions 🤝LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/aidan-m-lewis/=================================Fauci ran NIAID through COVID and held firm that the virus jumped naturally from animals to humans in a Wuhan wet market, not from an engineered leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) never bought it, filing criminal referrals against Fauci with the Justice Department in both 2021 and 2023. On January 19, 2025 President Biden issued Fauci a sweeping, unconditional preemptive pardon. Six days earlier, Paul had taken the gavel at the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee and subpoenaed fourteen federal agencies – including NIH, HHS, FBI, CIA, and DOJ – for records tied to COVID's origins and gain-of-function funding. By September 2025, more than 1,000 pages of Fauci's private diaries were released, showing that 10 of 12 expert scientists agreed a lab-engineered mutation was plausible.=================================We run Fauci's decision through the four pillars of quantum cognition. Superposition holds four live options at once: fully testify, selectively testify, don't show up at all, or plead the Fifth. Interference is comparatively quiet here – unlike SBF's decision in Episode 12, this reads as calculated legal strategy more than internal turmoil. Contextuality does the real work: he's compelled to appear, the pardon doesn't cover anything he says in this testimony, truthful answers risk self-incrimination, false ones risk perjury, and selective testimony invites the same exposure as neither. Non-commutative, measurement-style effects close the loop – being watched live by the committee and the press collapses his options toward whichever one is safest to say out loud, not necessarily the one that's true.=================================What you'll take away:Why "doing nothing" is often the highest-leverage move on the table, not the absence of one – the difference between strategic neutrality and passivityHow external constraints, not internal doubt, can collapse a four-option superposition down to a single survivable choiceWhy treating fear as information rather than a threat changes which options even register as viable under pressure=================================This is not a debate about COVID's origins or Fauci's guilt. It's a decision-science breakdown of why pleading the Fifth became the only option in his superposition that satisfied every contextual constraint stacked against him.=================================Primary Sources:Hartley, C. A., & Phelps, E. A. (2012). Anxiety and decision-making. Biological Psychiatry, 72(2), 113–118. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biopsych.2011.12.027=================================Secondary Sources:How Does Fear Influence Risk Assessment and Decision-Making?Cognitive Bias Cheat SheetDr. Paul Issues Subpoenas to Fourteen Agencies Regarding COVID-19 Origins and Risky Gain-of-Function ResearchChairman Rand Paul Uncovers New Evidence of Fauci Deleting Official Records, Calls Him to Testify Before HSGACSen. Rand Paul says he'll move to hold Fauci in contempt after combative hearingWhy was Fauci held in contempt for pleading the 5th, and what happens next?Biden pardons Fauci, Milley and members of Jan. 6 panel
    続きを読む 一部表示
    25 分
adbl_web_anon_alc_button_suppression_t1
まだレビューはありません