『Strategy or Costume? New Polls and Tafoya’s Pro-Choice Pivot』のカバーアート

Strategy or Costume? New Polls and Tafoya’s Pro-Choice Pivot

Strategy or Costume? New Polls and Tafoya’s Pro-Choice Pivot

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Welcome back to THE BRODCAST.With less than three weeks until Election Day, Michael Brodkorb and Billy Grant dig into a week of new Minnesota polling from KSTP, the Star Tribune, and Morning Consult.In the governor’s race, the polls tell the same story: Senator Amy Klobuchar leads Speaker Lisa Demuth by seven to nine points. The Senate race is tighter, with Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan ahead of Michele Tafoya by three to four. Down the ballot, the attorney general’s race is within a point, and the state auditor’s race has flipped since September. Billy argues that the auditor result is the purest read on the political environment.His rule for listeners: follow the trend lines, not the single poll.The segment, Spot Check, takes on the question of the week:Is Michele Tafoya’s “pro-choice Republican” ad a strategy or a costume?Billy says Tafoya grabbed a “fence issue” Republicans can’t win on, and he wants Minnesota Republicans to retire the “independent voice” line for good. Michael, a pro-choice “homeless Republican,” says the problem isn’t her position but the timing and authenticity behind it. He explains why her “muddled” stance on abortion leaves her trusted by neither side. Both agree her ad featuring Democrats voting for her is the stronger spot.In the final segment, Michael and Billy explain what campaigns actually do in the last weeks: find your voters, bank them, move the few you can, and avoid the late mistake. They cover the intensity gap, why Billy would run on “crime, crime, crime, public safety,” whether lawn signs vote, and Billy’s best opposition-research yard sign story from Arizona. They also condemn the disruption at the Minnesota GOP’s Lincoln Reagan Dinner, though they disagree on whether to call it a protest or a riot.IN THIS EPISODE00:00 Opening00:22 Welcome to THE BRODCAST00:54 Governor’s race: Klobuchar vs. Demuth03:08 Senate race: Flanagan vs. Tafoya04:49 Attorney general’s race06:06 State auditor: the purest read on the environment07:31 Star Tribune and Morning Consult polls10:04 Follow the trends, not one poll12:09 Why polling has gotten harder15:11 What bad polls do to a campaign17:01 Spot Check: Tafoya’s pro-choice ad21:31 Apollo 13 and campaign sequencing25:09 The Democrats-for-Tafoya ad26:22 Tafoya’s muddled position on abortion36:08 The four jobs of the final weeks40:05 The intensity gap42:55 Crime, crime, crime, public safety44:01 Emotions, sleep, and silly season46:52 Do lawn signs vote?50:47 The Lincoln Reagan Dinner protest51:58 Billy’s Arizona yard sign story53:33 Political violence has to stop55:33 Vote earlyWatch the full episode on YouTube.Michael Brodkorb and Billy Grant host THE BRODCAST.Politics. Power. What’s next?Subscribe to THE BRODCAST wherever you get your podcasts, and on YouTube, for new episodes, clips, and conversations. Get full access to On The Record with Michael Brodkorb at michaelbrodkorb.substack.com/subscribe
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