Is Scotland heading for a property crash—or does the country’s chronic shortage of homes make that unlikely?

Dr. John Boyle, Director of Research & Strategy at Rettie, joins Nick and Steven to examine the data behind Scotland’s housing emergency, house prices, rental growth and the future of the private rented sector.

From Aberdeen’s dramatic fall and the 18-year property cycle to landlord exits, rent controls, build-to-rent and student accommodation, Dr. John explains what the latest figures reveal—and why some commonly quoted property statistics can be misleading.

EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS

• What Scotland’s housing emergency actually means and why homelessness and temporary accommodation are increasing

• Why housing costs of approximately 25%–30% of gross income are generally considered affordable

• How annual housebuilding has fallen from around 25,000 homes before the financial crash to fewer than 20,000

• Why a new social home can now cost approximately £250,000–£300,000

• Why Scotland’s 2026 house-price growth forecast was revised from 3.5% to around 0%

• Why the Scottish market continues to average approximately 100,000 property transactions each year

• Why Dr. John does not believe the 18-year property cycle will produce a house-price crash in 2026

• Why a collapse in transactions can be more damaging to the property industry than falling prices

• How Aberdeen went from having higher average prices than Edinburgh to lower prices than Dundee

• Why Aberdeen prices remain down while property transactions are beginning to recover

• The risks of using short-term house-price figures to judge smaller towns and local markets

• Why landlord registration figures do not provide a reliable picture of landlords leaving the sector

• Why Dr. John describes the landlord exodus as a “trickle rather than a flood”

• How rent controls encouraged landlords to raise rents to market value between tenancies

• Why experienced landlords are now more likely to review and increase rents every year

• How the 8% Additional Dwelling Supplement affects new landlords while producing record tax revenue

• Why rent controls caused institutional build-to-rent investment in Scotland to stall

• How construction costs rising faster than rents have created a viability problem for build-to-rent

• Why purpose-built student accommodation can be more financially viable than standard rental developments

• Whether Glasgow could eventually face an oversupply of student accommodation

• How co-living developments could provide another housing option for young professionals

CHAPTERS

00:00 - Meet Dr. John Boyle

01:08 - Scotland’s housing emergency explained

04:04 - Why Scotland is not building enough homes

07:08 - The rising cost of social housing

10:55 - Scotland’s property-market outlook

14:32 - Will the 18-year property cycle cause a crash?

18:25 - What could trigger the next property crash?

21:39 - What happened to Aberdeen’s property market?

25:31 - Finding growth areas and interpreting property data

30:28 - Are landlords really leaving Scotland?

35:23 - How the 8% ADS is affecting investors

37:47 - Why rent controls caused rents to rise

40:11 - The future of rent-control zones

44:57 - Build-to-rent and institutional investment

53:03 - Why build-to-rent schemes are struggling

56:47 - Is Glasgow building too much student accommodation?

59:49 - Could co-living help address the housing shortage?

01:00:52 - Where to connect with Dr. John

CONNECT WITH DR. JOHN

Dr. John Boyle MRICS — Director of Research & Strategy at Rettie & Co

Website: https://www.rettie.co.uk/

NETWORKING EVENTS

First Wednesday of every month

📍 Aberdeen | Dundee | Edinburgh | GlasgowFollow our socials for speakers and details

SPONSORED BY

Prime Property Auctions — know someone selling a property? You could earn £1,500 just for making an introduction. John and Luis handle everything from the first call to the sale. Over £350,000 in referral fees paid out so far.

👉 https://primepropertyauctions.co.uk/

What would Nick and Steven do with £40,000 to invest—and would they choose a vanilla buy-to-let over stocks and shares?

In this listener Q&A episode, Nick reveals that he currently owns 12 buy-to-lets and is still aiming for a portfolio of 20 producing around £5,000 in net monthly cash flow. Steven explains why he focuses less on the number of properties he owns and more on cash flow, loan-to-value and paying down debt.

They also discuss how first-time buyers can use their position to get started, what makes a BRR deal stack up, how bridging finance works, whether 5.7% is a reasonable refinancing rate and how to find a trustworthy property sourcer.

EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS

• Nick’s goal of owning 20 buy-to-lets producing approximately £5,000 in net monthly cash flow

• Why Steven focuses on cash flow, loan-to-value and debt reduction instead of property numbers

• Houses versus flats—and why tenant turnover, factor fees and capital growth matter

• Why buying quality property can outperform chasing the maximum amount of money from every refinance

• Vanilla buy-to-let versus stocks and shares: how leverage changes the potential return

• What Nick and Steven would do with £40,000 to begin building a property portfolio

• How first-time buyers can use low deposits, house hacking and live-in flips to their advantage

• The investment criteria Nick and Steven would use when purchasing property today

• Their five and ten-year plans for acquiring properties and reducing portfolio debt

• The discounts, added value and refurbishment costs needed to make a BRR deal work

• How bridging finance works, including arrangement fees, monthly interest and exit costs

• Whether fixing a buy-to-let mortgage at 5.7% could make sense

• Kitchen versus bathroom: which refurbishment is more likely to improve a property’s value?

• How to check a property sourcer’s track record, compliance and investment figures

• Why tenanted properties require due diligence on both the building and the tenant

CHAPTERS

00:00 - Nick and Steven answer listeners’ questions

01:15 - Portfolio targets and monthly cash-flow goals

04:03 - Houses versus flats

06:12 - BRR versus buying quality property

08:21 - Loan-to-value and paying down portfolio debt

10:52 - Prime Property Auctions

13:09 - Buy-to-let versus stocks and shares

20:49 - What would they do with £40,000?

23:03 - The advantages of being a first-time buyer

25:56 - Nick and Steven’s property-buying criteria

30:23 - Their five and ten-year property plans

36:18 - How to borrow, buy and recover your investment

38:32 - How bridging finance works

42:47 - Is 5.7% a reasonable refinancing rate?

46:10 - Kitchen versus bathroom refurbishment

49:56 - How to find a trustworthy property sourcer

55:28 - Nick and Steven’s perfect day

NETWORKING EVENTS

First Wednesday of every month

📍 Aberdeen | Dundee | Edinburgh | Glasgow

Follow our socials for speakers and details

SPONSORED BY

Prime Property Auctions — earn £1,500 just for sending a WhatsApp. If you know someone selling a property, John and Lewis will pay you £1,500 or 1% of the sale price (whichever is higher) just for passing on their details. They've paid out over £350,000 in referral fees so far.

👉 https://primepropertyauctions.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe so you never miss an episode

👍 Like the video if you found it valuable

💬 If you had £100,000 to invest, would you choose buy-to-let or stocks and shares? Let us know in the comments 👇

At just 27, Ally Wilkes was diagnosed with a rare form of cancer—an experience that completely changed how she viewed time, security and the life she wanted to build.

After years working in the NHS, Ally took the leap into property. She completed a flip that made just under £30,000, used the BRR strategy to build her own portfolio and eventually left her job to run ACG Property, managing renovation projects for investors.

In this honest conversation with Nick and Steven, Ally shares the numbers behind her deals, the reality of becoming self-employed, the nightmare first tenant who trashed her property and what investors should realistically expect to spend on a refurbishment today.

EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS

• How a cancer diagnosis at 27 changed Ally’s outlook on work, security and life

• Why she had wanted to become a property developer from a young age

• The numbers behind her first flip: bought for £81,000, spent around £17,000 and sold for £135,750

• How that first project produced a profit of just under £30,000

• Her first BRR: bought for £66,000, refurbished for around £30,000 and revalued at £130,000

• What happened when her first buy-to-let tenant trashed the property after only eight weeks

• Leaving the NHS and adjusting to the lack of routine that comes with self-employment• How networking and sharing her journey online helped Ally secure her first clients

• Why Ally charges 15% of the refurbishment cost for project management

• Why Ally budgets roughly £15,000–£20,000 for a good two-bedroom refurbishment with kitchen and bathroom upgrades, excluding electrics, windows and boiler or heating work

• The hidden problems investors cannot always spot before work begins, including thermal bridging

• Why Ally prioritises good-quality assets instead of growing a portfolio for appearances

TIMESTAMPS

00:00 - Meet Ally Wilkes

01:47 - Wanting to work in property from a young age

06:38 - The cancer diagnosis that changed everything

15:37 - Why property became Ally’s next chapter

18:27 - The numbers behind her first flip

21:49 - Moving from flipping to BRR and buy-to-let

22:16 - A £66,000 purchase revalued at £130,000

22:53 - The nightmare first tenant

27:23 - Leaving the NHS for property full-time

33:26 - How networking brought Ally her first clients

35:42 - Building a personal brand by being authentic

38:19 - Why investors use a project manager

39:27 - Project-management fees and realistic budgets

43:17 - What a two-bedroom refurbishment costs today

45:09 - Thermal bridging and other hidden problems

48:12 - Kitchens, bathrooms and timeless design

51:53 - Managing a refurbishment for a remote investor

53:23 - Ally’s plans for ACG Property and her portfolio

- 55:29 Where to connect with Ally

CONNECT WITH ALLY

Ally Wilkes — ACG Property

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/allywilkesproperty_inhaus/

NETWORKING EVENTS

First Wednesday of every month

📍 Aberdeen | Dundee | Edinburgh | Glasgow

Follow our socials for speakers and details

SPONSORED BY

Prime Property Auctions — earn £1,500 just for sending a WhatsApp. If you know someone selling a property, John and Lewis will pay you £1,500 or 1% of the sale price (whichever is higher) just for passing on their details. They've paid out over £350,000 in referral fees so far.👉 https://primepropertyauctions.co.uk/

🔔 Subscribe so you never miss an episode

👍 Like the video if you found it valuable

💬 Would you leave a secure career to pursue property full-time? Let us know in the comments 👇