『Restricted Handling Podcast』のカバーアート

Restricted Handling Podcast

Restricted Handling Podcast

著者： Ryan Fugit
無料で聴く

Former CIA officers with extremely experienced guests talk Russia, China, Iran, North Korea; international security, geopolitics, military, intel operations, sanctions and economic power plays. Get deeper daily analysis on Substack at https://substack.com/@restrictedhandling. Find daily intel brief podcasts on Russia, China, and Iran at https://open.spotify.com/show/6Kb9BYk98BEmeHVpgWiklG2026 世界 政治・政府
エピソード
  • Is China Really Going to Take Taiwan & Trump-Xi-Putin Summit Outcomes w/ China Expert Lyle Goldstein

    Is China Really Going to Take Taiwan & Trump-Xi-Putin Summit Outcomes w/ China Expert Lyle Goldstein
    2026/05/24
    A Taiwan crisis may be closer, more complex, and more dangerous than Washington wants to admit. 👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more Ryan Fugit is joined by Professor Lyle Goldstein, Director of Brown University's China Initiative, longtime scholar of Chinese and Russian military strategy, former U.S. Naval War College professor, and founding director of the China Maritime Studies Institute. They break down the recent Trump-Xi summit, Xi's engagement with Putin, the China-Russia strategic relationship, Taiwan's role in U.S.-China tensions, and what a real Taiwan contingency could look like. In this episode, we cover: • Why great-power summits still matter • How China views Taiwan as the core flashpoint • Whether China is preparing for a 2026 or 2027 Taiwan move • What PLA purges may really signal • Why an invasion may start with firepower, helicopters, drones, and special forces • How blockade scenarios compare to full invasion • Why prediction markets are pricing Taiwan risk • Why Lyle rejects the "peak China" argument • What the U.S. administration should understand about China, Japan, the Philippines, and Taiwan This episode matters because Taiwan is where U.S. deterrence, Chinese nationalism, military geography, semiconductor anxiety, alliance commitments, and escalation risk all collide. About Lyle Goldstein Professor Lyle Goldstein is Director of Brown University's China Initiative, a longtime scholar of Chinese and Russian military strategy, a former professor at the U.S. Naval War College, and the founding director of the China Maritime Studies Institute. In the episode, he also notes his work at Defense Priorities, a Washington think tank focused on realism and restraint. Restricted Handling https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ Lyle Goldstein books and resources Target Taiwan: Challenges for a U.S. intervention https://www.defensepriorities.org/explainers/target-taiwan-challenges-for-a-us-intervention/ The New Cold War at Sea: Maritime Implications of the China-Russia Quasi-Alliance https://www.usni.org/press/books/new-cold-war-sea Meeting China Halfway: How to Defuse the Emerging US-China Rivalry https://press.georgetown.edu/Book/Meeting-China-Halfway Preventive Attack and Weapons of Mass Destruction: A Comparative Historical Analysis https://www.sup.org/books/politics/preventive-attack-and-weapons-mass-destruction Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/5/ China, the United States and 21st Century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security Partnership https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/4/ China Goes to Sea: Maritime Transformation in Comparative Historical Perspective https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/3/ China's Energy Strategy: The Impact on Beijing's Maritime Policies https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/2/ China's Future Nuclear Submarine Force https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-studies/1/ China's Nuclear Force Modernization https://paperzz.com/doc/7936415/china-s-nuclear-force-modernization Five Dragons Stirring Up the Sea https://openlibrary.org/works/OL15889049W/Five_dragons_stirring_up_the_sea Not Congruent but Quite Complementary: U.S. and Chinese Approaches to Nontraditional Security https://www.andrewerickson.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/China-Maritime-Study-9_US-China-NTS-Perspectives_Goldstein_201207.pdf Timeline / chapters • 00:00 Ryan introduces Lyle Goldstein and the China-Taiwan focus • 01:46 Defense Priorities Taiwan series and the Trump-Xi summit setup • 02:26 Why great-power summits matter and who gained leverage • 05:11 How China-Russia ties shape the summit backdrop • 06:00 Taiwan at the center of U.S.-China relations • 11:34 Taiwan, chips, AI, and invasion timelines • 12:49 China's preparations and the 2026 or 2027 question • 15:01 PLA purges and what they may signal about Xi's control • 19:54 Breaking down the military dimensions of a Taiwan invasion • 20:30 Blockades, gray-zone coercion, and U.S. intervention risk • 22:40 Would China target civilian infrastructure? • 23:23 Helicopters, special operations forces, and the first day of war • 25:35 Airborne insertions, casualties, and drone resupply • 28:30 Why an invasion may not look like U.S. amphibious doctrine • 33:06 Would Taiwan become an insurgency? • 38:22 Prediction markets and the odds of invasion or blockade • 41:28 What Lyle would tell the U.S. administration about China • 46:53 Closing thoughts and where to find Lyle's work
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    48 分
  • Ryan & Glenn: Trump and Xi Test Each Other as Taiwan, Iran, and Ukraine Collide

    Ryan & Glenn: Trump and Xi Test Each Other as Taiwan, Iran, and Ukraine Collide
    2026/05/15
    Trump and Xi are testing each other over Taiwan, Iran, and global leverage while Russia, Ukraine, and China's influence operations keep reshaping the map. 👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn break down the latest in U.S.-China talks, China's pressure over Taiwan, Ukraine's battlefield innovation, Iran's maximalist negotiating posture, and Chinese influence operations inside the United States. In this episode, we cover: • Trump and Xi in Beijing, Taiwan, and the risk of miscalculation • China's position on Iran, the Strait of Hormuz, and weapons support • Ukraine's battlefield gains, AI-enabled air defense, and anti-corruption pressure • Iran's nuclear demands, sanctions relief, and Gulf security • Chinese influence operations at the municipal level in the U.S. • The role former intelligence officers could play as ambassadors • Mexico, cartels, Russian presence, and the southern border • What Ryan and Glenn are reading right now • AJ Pasciuiti's new book Darkhorse and the sniper story behind it This episode matters because the same strategic contest is showing up everywhere: great-power diplomacy, battlefield adaptation, maritime chokepoints, local influence operations, and the fight to keep open societies from being exploited. Timeline / chapters • 00:00 Ryan introduces Restricted Handling and Glenn's background • 01:23 Glenn's Breitling hat, family memories, and lucky charms • 04:41 Ryan's lost Omega story from North Africa • 05:34 Trump and Xi in Beijing, Taiwan, and handshake betting markets • 08:02 Glenn on Taiwan, risk, and Putin's Beijing signal • 09:18 China, Iran, Hormuz, and weapons support claims • 12:20 Ambassador Satterfield and running a country team • 14:19 Ukraine ceasefire claims and Zelensky's humor • 16:41 Ukraine's net battlefield gains and innovation • 17:56 Palantir, AI models, drones, and Ukrainian adaptation • 19:48 NATO, EU accession, and Ukraine's desired U.S. relationship • 21:26 Yermak, corruption, transparency, and Russian talking points • 23:34 Iran's negotiating demands and Trump's rejection • 24:58 Hormuz, naval coalitions, and Gulf partners • 26:49 Chinese influence operations in Arcadia and Manhattan • 29:43 Glenn on public service, ambassadors, and former CIA officers • 32:17 Mexico, cartels, CIA reporting, and Russian presence • 35:21 What Ryan and Glenn are reading • 36:49 AJ Pasciuiti's Darkhorse and the sniper story behind the book About AJ Pasciuiti AJ Pasciuiti is a 21-year Marine, Force Recon Scout Sniper, Marine officer, author, speaker, and host of Combat Story. His book Darkhorse: Harnessing Hidden Potential in War and Life is available May 19, 2026. Order Darkhorse on Amazon https://www.amazon.com/Darkhorse-Harnessing-Hidden-Potential-Life/dp/1400254973 Learn more about AJ and Darkhorse https://www.ajpasciuti.com/ Darkhorse book page https://www.ajpasciuti.com/book How to find Glenn Corn Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/). Restricted Handling https://www.restrictedhandling.com/
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    41 分
  • Iran, China, Russia, and U.S. Strategy w/ Amb David Satterfield and CIA Officer (Ret) Glenn Corn

    Iran, China, Russia, and U.S. Strategy w/ Amb David Satterfield and CIA Officer (Ret) Glenn Corn
    2026/05/10
    Ambassador David Satterfield lays out why the Middle East crisis is not just about Iran, Gaza, or the Strait of Hormuz, but about whether the U.S. still knows how to run serious national security policy. 👉 Subscribe to The Restricted Handling Podcast at https://www.restrictedhandling.com/ to get a daily intel brief on Russia, China, Iran, Economics/Sanctions, Espionage, and more Ryan Fugit and Glenn Corn are joined by Ambassador David Satterfield, director of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy and a former U.S. ambassador to Turkey and Lebanon, for a wide-ranging conversation on the Middle East, Iran, China, Russia, Ukraine, Syria, diplomacy, and the machinery of U.S. foreign policy. Satterfield argues that classic military power is struggling against asymmetric actors like Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, and that kinetic force alone cannot deliver strategic outcomes without political frameworks, patience, and a functioning national security process. In this episode, we cover: • Why Iran's Strait of Hormuz threat has become a global economic weapon • Why Satterfield now believes leaving the JCPOA was a mistake • The limits of military power against Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran • How the collapse of State Department and NSC capacity affects crisis management • Why Syria policy required bold decisions, but also needs a team to sustain gains • Why China is the most formidable U.S. adversary • How Saudi Arabia, the UAE, energy, critical minerals, and China fit together • Why Satterfield would advise against rushing into a Beijing summit • Putin's Victory Day ceasefire, Ukraine's position, and Russia's gains from the Hormuz crisis • What Yitzhak Rabin and James Baker taught Satterfield about leadership, principle, and diplomacy This is a masterclass in strategic patience, national security process, and the danger of confusing tactical strikes with strategy. Timeline / chapters • 00:00 Ambassador David Satterfield joins Ryan and Glenn • 02:04 How chaotic is the Middle East right now? • 03:03 UAE, Saudi Arabia, OPEC, and regional change • 05:36 Why asymmetric actors frustrate classic military power • 08:30 Gaza, Hezbollah, and the missing political framework • 11:18 Why leaving the JCPOA was a mistake • 13:49 Trump, Israel, and the decision to confront Iran • 17:08 Iran turns the Strait of Hormuz into a global weapon • 20:00 Why strikes have not eliminated Iran's missile and drone capacity • 24:10 Why tweets cannot manage strategic adversaries • 25:35 Why State and the NSC cannot function without teams • 26:35 Turkey, Syria, Lebanon, and Tom Barrack's role • 32:15 Bold policy needs sustainment • 36:55 Tom Barrack, Lebanon, Syria, and speaking bluntly • 39:26 How Satterfield would advise Trump before a China trip • 41:11 China's technical, industrial, and espionage challenge • 44:08 Saudi Arabia, China, and the real logic behind the U.S.-Saudi deal • 48:30 Why Satterfield would tell Trump not to go to Beijing yet • 51:25 Putin's Victory Day ceasefire and Ukraine • 55:55 Russia benefits from the Strait of Hormuz crisis • 59:10 Should Ukraine strike during the Victory Day parade? • 1:03:09 The real issue: how to conduct national security policy • 1:04:44 Rabin, Baker, and the most interesting figures Satterfield worked with • 1:08:33 Satterfield's work at Rice University's Baker Institute About David Satterfield Ambassador David M. Satterfield is the director of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy and leads its Edward P. Djerejian Center for the Middle East. He has more than four decades of diplomatic and leadership experience, including service as U.S. ambassador to Turkey and Lebanon, assistant secretary of state, National Security Council staff director, special envoy for the Horn of Africa, and chargé d'affaires in Iraq and Egypt. Baker Institute profile https://www.bakerinstitute.org/expert/david-m-satterfield Rice University profile https://profiles.rice.edu/staff/david-satterfield How to find Glenn Corn Glenn Corn is a former CIA Senior Intelligence Service officer and multi-time Chief of Station in some of the world's most difficult posts. You can find him at the Institute of World Politics (https://www.iwp.edu/faculty/glenn-corn/) or his consultancy at Great South Bay Consulting (https://greatsouthbayinc.com/). Restricted Handling https://www.restrictedhandling.com/
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    1 時間 12 分
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