『Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean』のカバーアート

Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean

Recession Watch with Fexingo: Economic Cycles, Indicators, and What Slowdowns Mean

著者： Fexingo
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When the yield curve inverts, when payrolls soften, when the Fed chair uses the word 'transitory' again — Lucas and Luna sit down with the data to ask what it actually means. This is not a panic desk or a cheerleading session; it's a methodical reading of the economic cycle through the lens of real indicators: ISM manufacturing PMI, the Conference Board Leading Index, the Sahm Rule, credit spreads, housing starts, and the Federal Reserve's own dot-plot projections. Every episode takes one or two fresh data points from the week's releases — jobs reports, GDP revisions, consumer sentiment surveys — and traces their implications for inflation, interest rates, corporate earnings, and the probability of a recession in the next 12 months. Lucas brings the historical context and institutional knowledge; Luna presses on the human consequences: what does this mean for a small business owner's borrowing costs, for a mid-career professional's job security, for a retiree's portfolio? They name the sectors most exposed (regional banks, commercial real estate, discretionary retail) and the ones that might weather a downturn (utilities, healthcare, discount grocers). They compare the current cycle to past recessions (1990, 2001, 2008, 2020) with enough specifics to make the comparison useful, not sensational. The listener comes away with a clearer view of where the economy actually stands — and the handful of numbers they should watch next. Because if a recession is coming, the real question isn't if, but when, and how bad? #RecessionWatch #EconomicCycles #FederalReserve #YieldCurve #Inflation #InterestRates #ISM #GDP #JobsReport #SahmRule #CentralBanking #MacroEconomics #BusinessCycle #EconomicIndicators #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #Business Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo© 2026 Fexingo. All rights reserved. 経済学
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  • How Wholesale Prices Signal the Next Economic Shift

    How Wholesale Prices Signal the Next Economic Shift
    2026/09/10
    With wholesale prices rising 0.4 percent in August and the S&P 500 down two percent over five days, we examine whether supply chain frictions are masking underlying demand weakness. Lucas and Luna dissect the disconnect between headline inflation and the quiet pressure building at the producer level. They explore how this specific data point reveals a different story than consumer price reports, highlighting the risks of imported goods tariffs and the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision. This is not just about numbers; it is about where the economic pain is actually hitting before it reaches your checkout counter. #WholesalePrices #InflationData #EconomicCycles #FedInterestRates #TradeWar #SupplyChain #ProducerPrices #EconomicIndicators #RecessionWatch #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #LucasAndLuna #MacroEconomics #MarketAnalysis #ConsumerCredit #GDPGrowth #TreasuryYields #USCanadaTrade Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    9 分
  • The Hidden Cost of the US Canada Trade War

    The Hidden Cost of the US Canada Trade War
    2026/09/09
    With U.S. import bans on Canadian goods and retaliatory tariffs hitting CA$27.6 billion, we examine how North American supply chains are fracturing in real time. Lucas and Luna dissect the specific mechanics of this escalating trade rift, looking at how input cost inflation is quietly reshaping manufacturing margins right now. We move beyond the political headlines to look at the actual data: why nominal GDP growth is slowing despite steady payrolls, and how businesses are absorbing these new cross-border frictions without passing every cost to consumers just yet. #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Economics #TradeWar #USCanadaRelations #SupplyChainRisk #InflationData #NominalGDP #Tariffs #ManufacturingCosts #CrossBorderTrade #EconomicSlowdown #InputCosts #GlobalTrade #RecessionWatch #Macroeconomics #BusinessStrategy #LucasAndLuna Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    11 分
  • The Productivity Trap Behind The Recession

    The Productivity Trap Behind The Recession
    2026/09/08
    Real GDP growth has slowed to one point five percent annualized in the second quarter of twenty twenty six, yet unemployment remains steady at four point one percent. This episode dissects the 'productivity trap' where output is shrinking while labor costs rise, creating a dangerous mismatch for corporate margins. Lucas and Luna examine how average hourly earnings outpacing productivity gains are squeezing small businesses and why traditional recession indicators like payrolls might be masking the true fragility of the service sector economy. #RecessionWatch #EconomicsPodcast #ProductivityTrap #GDPGrowth #LaborMarket #CorporateMargins #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #InflationData #WageGrowth #ServiceSector #EconomicIndicators #SmallBusiness #HiringTrends #QuarterlyEarnings #Macroeconomics #LucasAndLuna #FinancialAnalysis Keep every episode free: buymeacoffee.com/fexingo
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    10 分
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