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This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

Trumpwatch

The Real Time UK Property Market - what’s going on?

The deep dive looks at just how wobbly the position is for Rachel Reeves in Number 11 after a torrid week

We also have, in the Macro section:

The Bank of England Money and Credit Report

The Nationwide House Price Index - caused some fuss this week

The Final PMI figures and some good news

The gilts and swaps markets - as always - ratewatch

The deep dive goes where we might be scared to go - if Reeves does go, who replaces her? What does that mean? Will Starmer himself be stabbed in the back faster than we were expecting? Which heroes or villains will be thrown into the mixer?

Enjoy

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This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

The deep dive looks at the next 1-3 years of house price growth, recent mortgage market changes and provides a comprehensive summary of what’s in the mixer, and what’s already happened

We also have, in the Macro section:

The flash PMIs - sluggish improvement

ONS public opinions and social trends

Homes England delivery figures and starts for 2024-25 fiscal year

The deep dive gets stuck right into the one major consideration for housing market price movements - mortgages and credit availability. There have been some slow old pace changes afoot - why are they happening, what’s the plan (I believe there is one) and what will the outcome be on UK house prices, most importantly?

Enjoy

Workshop tickets: http://bit.ly/pbwseven

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This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

The deep dive looks at the Bank of England but it also tells you a story - the story of the yield curve

We also have, in the Macro section:

Inflation numbers - my favoured topic of the past 4.5 years

Housing indices - the ONS and Rightmove

UK Finance and their new format data and reports

The deep dive gets into the Bank of England’s current mindset - concerned about geopolitical events, of course, but more concerned about the labour market that has suffered from the Labour budget policies - and then goes on to tell you what today’s market forecast is for the 5-year mortgage rate in 5 years time. I promise you it isn’t what you think it is!

Enjoy

Workshop tickets: http://bit.ly/pbwseven

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This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

The deep dive looks at a draft report on the true scale of subsidy required to deliver 90k social rent homes each year in the UK.

We also have, in the Macro section:

Halifax and Nationwide’s respective price indices

The Bank of England Money and Credit Report analysed

The PMIs - final May numbers which were better than the drafts!

And of course the gilts and swaps - weekly staple.

The deep dive gets into the true reality of the Social Rent Home Delivery subsidy issue, as the current funding is a tiny fraction of what’s needed (about one eighth) in order to actually do what has been promised for many years - see this week’s quote.

I add historical context to the permacrisis, and also some doses of reality to the proposed solutions - nevertheless, it is one of the more robust pieces of work I’ve reported on for some months.

Enjoy

Workshop tickets: http://bit.ly/pbwseven

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This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

The deep dive looks at MHCLG figures on statutory homelessness duties, a Shelter report on trends in temporary accommodation, and Savills publication this week on the Housing Challenge as they prefer to call it!

We also have, in the Macro section:

The Nationwide House Price Index for April

The Bank of England Money and Credit Report for “Stamp month”

A precis of the local election results and what a Reform government would look like

And the gilts and swaps rounding things off

The deep dive this week looks at the reality of the situation in temporary accommodation, from both the official data and also a Shelter report on where it is going - which I must say, to me, looks to have a fairly conservative set of forecasts in it, particularly as new build delivery is still going down before it goes up.

On that subject, Savills’ detailed forecast on the next 5 years of housing delivery makes very interesting reading, and summarises the salient points in the sector and around the 1.5m homes target very succinctly indeed.

Enjoy

Workshop tickets: http://bit.ly/pbwseven

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This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

The deep dive looks at a couple more reports - The Home Builders’ Federation Q4 pipeline report, and UK Finance’s report on Household Finances from Q4, both published this week.

We also have, in the Macro section:

The Halifax House Price Index

The Bank of England Money and Credit Report - with something to watch out for and be aware of

The final PMIs for February

The gilts and swaps - bringing up the rear as always, with some extra commentary around what the Bank of England committee members have been doing and saying this week

And in the deep dive......

The Home Builders Federation have the most marginal piece of good news - but planning permission is, of course, only the first piece of the jigsaw.

UK Finance is similarly somewhat positive - but, the story is the same really. We are coming back from a tough position in general….2023 was a tough old year and 2024 was a year of relatively slow repair, basically!

What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - we SPRING towards the stamp duty deadline and the reintroduction of the 2% band - we need to Keep Calm and Carry On. 3 weeks until the Spring Statement!

Enjoy

Workshop tickets: bit.ly/pbw6

Deal-finding course: bit.ly/sourcingsolved2025

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This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

The deep dive looks at a couple more reports - Zoopla’s efforts for the month which get into flats and houses, and the differences - and I attempt to add some depth, and then a great report from the Nationwide Foundation about the Private Rental Sector - the best I’ve read, bar none.

We also have, in the Macro section:

The Nationwide House Price Index

Confidence - and the return of it, or a couple of green shoots anyway

The ONS Private Rents and House Prices report

The gilts and swaps - bringing up the rear as always, with reasonable news.

And in the deep dive......

Zoopla’s report on pricing for January that was released in February contains some revelations about the price of flats and how much cheaper they are than houses. We are heading to a world where a house is twice the price of a flat. However - I ask the questions to take it to the next level of detail - are flats much less attractive, comparatively, than they were? As investment propositions, I primarily mean……before you even start on cladding, fire, rocketing service charges…….you get the picture.

Then the Nationwide Foundation, and their report on “Systemic change” in the PRS - this report asks so many important questions, and whilst I critique with the red pen as usual, I’m full of praise for those even asking these questions. Real progress from an organisation without an agenda, that’s well funded - heartwarming to say the least.

What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - we SPRING towards the stamp duty deadline and the reintroduction of the 2% band - we need to Keep Calm and Carry On (and for our conveyancers to get on with it, if we are buying anything right now!)

Enjoy

Workshop tickets: bit.ly/pbw6

Deal-finding course: bit.ly/sourcingsolved2025

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****

This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

The deep dive looks at a couple of reports that have been on my hit list for some time. One from the centre, and one from left of centre - firstly, the hotel of mum and dad; then the positive changes in housing circumstances for young people in Britain over the past decade (and my idea of irony on that subject).

We also have, in the Macro section, in “mega week”:

The ONS Labour Market Report

INFLATION - and just how “Back” it is.

The flash PMIs, of course……

The gilts and swaps - a week that really could have been worse.

And in the deep dive......

The Institute for Fiscal Studies report entitled “Hotel of Mum and Dad” released last month looks specifically at the area of those aged 25-34 “co-living” with Mum and Dad, and how it varies, how it has changed in recent years, and some of the drivers of the changes. I get stuck into it.

Then the Resolution Foundation, whilst really wanting to write an article about just how hard the younger working families on middle and low incomes have got it, found themselves forced to conclude that the past decade has meant steps forward, rather than steps backward, for this group of the population. I get stuck into that too!

What you know at the end is - as ever-present, we will be Keeping Calm and Carrying On throughout 2025 - job worries, inflation wobbles, a cratering manufacturing sector and Andrew Bailey’s warnings of weak growth - we need to Keep Calm and Carry On

Enjoy

Workshop tickets: bit.ly/pbw6

Deal-finding course: bit.ly/sourcingsolved2025