The Budget: What actually happened (vs. what they told you)

The dust has settled on the Budget, but the rhetoric is still blinding the market. This week, we strip away the political spin and look at the raw math. From the "real" net migration figures to the Scottish rental data that is predicting the future of the English PRS—we are connecting the dots others are ignoring.

In this episode:

• Trumpwatch: The macro impact you aren't seeing.

• The Budget Deep Dive: Assessments from the left and right (the ones that actually matter).

• Gilt & Swaps: The signal in the noise.

The Propenomix Verdict: The market is shifting. Are you positioned for it?

🎧 Listen now. Know a landlord with their head in the sand? Send them this episode.

🚀 Next Step: Don't just listen—prepare. Secure your seat at the Property Business Workshop and get the tactical edge: https://tinyurl.com/pbwnine

Join Adam Lawrence and Duncan Hooper for a deep-dive analysis of the 2025 UK Budget in this special live-recorded episode of Propenomix. In what might be the most anticipated fiscal event in years, Adam and Duncan unpack the realities behind Chancellor Rachel Reeves' "Smorgasbord Budget" and what it truly means for property investors, business owners, and the wider UK economy.

Cutting through the political noise and media spin, this discussion offers a critical look at the numbers that matter. Adam and Duncan explore the implications of frozen income tax thresholds, the controversial new electric vehicle excise duty, and the surprising lack of movement on Capital Gains Tax. They delve into the strategic nuances of the new "mansion tax" on properties over £2 million and dissect the government's approach to the rental market, including the likely inflationary pressure on rents due to increased landlord costs.

Beyond the headlines, this episode provides a unique, investor-focused perspective on:

• The "Black Hole" Narrative: Was the £22bn fiscal hole real or a political construct to justify tax hikes?

• Dividend Tax Hikes: A look at the 2% increase and its regressive impact on small business owners versus the "Amazon model" of aggressive reinvestment.

• The Property Market: Why the rental sector might see a "pass-through" of costs to tenants and how the freeze on thresholds affects market dynamics.

• Political Fallout: A sharp analysis of Kemi Badenoch's standout performance in opposition and what it signals for the future political landscape.

• Economic Forecasts: Why the OBR's 1.5% growth forecast might be more realistic than the government's optimism, and what "fiscal headroom" really means for future borrowing.

Whether you're a seasoned property investor, a business owner, or simply keen to understand the economic currents shaping the UK, this episode delivers the expert insight and "no-nonsense" analysis you need to navigate the post-budget landscape. Tune in for a session that goes beyond the dispatch box to reveal the real winners and losers of Budget 2025.

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This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

Trumpwatch

The Real Time UK Property Market - what's the score?

The deep dive looks to how much pain we will all be in in a few days time, post-budget

We also have, in the Macro section:

Inflation - and a more orderly month

The Rightmove Asking Price Index with the ONS Private Rents and House Prices alongside

The PMIs and all relevant reports from S&P Global

The Gilts and Swaps - natch

On the Budget - we've endured endless weeks and indeed months of speculation. Property and any asset owners look set to take it in the face. Will it be as painful as we think? I try to ascribe some probabilities to what will happen!

Book workshop tickets: https://tinyurl.com/pbwnine

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This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

Trumpwatch

The Real Time UK Property Market - what's the score?

The deep dive looks at some specifics from the Bank of England meeting this month

We also have, in the Macro section:

The Labour Market Overview - unemployment!

The RICS residential market report

Growth - a free microscope with every Supplement!

The Gilts and Swaps - ofc

On the Bank of England report - I was at the Breakfast Briefing this week and that always offers extra insight - insights this time round match with the macro figures of the week, Growth and Unemployment focused. How do they fix it? I tell them!

Book workshop tickets: https://tinyurl.com/pbwnine

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****

This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

Trumpwatch

The Real Time UK Property Market - what's the score?

The deep dive looks at the Bank of England meeting Monetary Policy Report and Rate Decision Meeting!

We also have, in the Macro section:

The PMIs - final numbers

The Halifax House Price Index

The ONS Economic Activity and Social Change report

The Gilts and Swaps - natch

On the Bank of England report - I go further and talk about what should be done in the budget from a fairness perspective, and also from the perspective of trying to control inflation to try and get the interest rate down so that we can burn less money on debt servicing!!!!

Book workshop tickets: https://tinyurl.com/pbwnine

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This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

Trumpwatch

The Real Time UK Property Market - what's occurring?

The deep dive shines the light on the London market alongside land prices nationwide, and what's working and what isn't.

We also have, in the Macro section:

Inflation - the most positive report for a while

Prices - Rightmove asking prices, ONS house prices and rents

The Flash PMIs and a return to limp growth

The gilts and swaps, as always

The deep dive gets into two reports, one from Savills and another from Hamptons, which focus on urban and greenfield development, and the London market and its fate over the past 10 years, and how that affects the surrounding areas.

Book workshop tickets: https://tinyurl.com/pbwnine

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This AI-Generated episode was output from Google's NotebookLM, based on a single source - an influential and seriously comprehensive report about social housing that was recently published. The source paper is here:

https://homesforpeopleweneed.co.uk/

And I very much recommend you read it. However, it is an 81-page PDF so I wanted to share this and see if people found it useful. A deep-dive style summary, AI produced, limited work from the "chef" here - and hopefully it will spark some interesting debate and conversation. Please let me know what you think!

****PLEASE SHARE AND HELP TO SPREAD THE WORD OF PROPENOMIX****

This week in the ONLY agenda-free UK Property and Macroeconomic roundup:

Trumpwatch

The Real Time UK Property Market - what's cooking?

The deep dive looks at a whole plethora of reports released in the past week about the sad state of our housing starts in the UK at this time.

We also have, in the Macro section:

The labour market numbers - (un)employment and inactivity

Growth - a bit

The MHCLG numbers on temporary accommodation - improving

The deep dive gets into the state of the UK housing starts situation, from multiple different sources and angles. Spoiler alert - it is ugly! I also go into detail about some of the recent Bank of England speeches regarding the future path of the interest rate.

Book workshop tickets: https://bit.ly/pbw9