We all know political polls are increasingly unreliable. That's why forecasting outfits like 538 aim to separate "the signal and the noise" by assigning grades to pollsters and weighting their forecasts toward those with the best grades. 

It seemed like a good plan. So why did it backfire so spectacularly? 

Flip Pidot, Peter Hurford and Harry Crane investigate Nate Silver's utterly failed attempt to distinguish good pollsters from bad. 

Follow along with our interactive polls and forecasts at OpenModelProject.org. Follow us on Twitter at @OpenModelProj. 

If you'd like to see more independent forecasting and unbiased polling in your world (and gain exclusive access it before anyone else), please consider supporting us on Patreon at patreon.com/openmodel. 

Flip Pidot and Peter Hurford take a fresh look at the New York Democratic mayoral primary (where we're getting ready to field our first ranked choice poll) with a particular focus on the underloved candidacy of Maya Wiley. 

Later, Peter shares a rather gloomy theory about potential systemic error in polling of Americans' covid vaccine hesitancy. 

With your help, maybe we can do better... 

Follow along with our interactive polls and forecasts at OpenModelProject.org. Follow us on Twitter at @OpenModelProj. 

If you'd like to see more independent forecasting and unbiased polling in your world (and gain exclusive access it before anyone else), please consider supporting us on Patreon at patreon.com/openmodel. 

Flip and Peter are joined by City & State NY senior reporter Jeff Coltin for a look inside the campaigns of the 5 (maybe 6) top tier candidates for mayor of New York. 

Follow along with our interactive polls and forecasts at OpenModelProject.org. Follow us on Twitter at @OpenModelProj. 

If you'd like to see more independent forecasting and unbiased polling in your world, please consider supporting us on Patreon at patreon.com/openmodel.