NFC North Win Totals 2026: Lions, Bears, Packers & Vikings | Fade the Field Ep. 16
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They open on the Hall of Fame game and the difference between loving football and loving what football offers. Then the board:
▸ DETROIT LIONS — 11+ wins trading near 53¢. Model 9.8, CJ's win index 9.64. Both on the no. The case is schedule shape: a Week 6 bye that requires Detroit to be 4-1 beforehand, and three road division games in the closing month they could lose outright.
▸ CHICAGO BEARS — 10+ near 47¢. Model 8.9, index 8.87. The verdict is no position at all. Chicago won roughly six coin-flip games last season and can be a better football team with a worse record; the layup games are at home and the difficult ones are on the road.
▸ GREEN BAY PACKERS — 10+ near 54¢. Model 9.8, index 8.82 against a 10-7 record projection. Micah Parsons is not expected back at full strength until Week 5 or 6 and the closing stretch is brutal. The play is the no now, with a stated plan to reverse after the first four games.
▸ MINNESOTA VIKINGS — 9+ near 55¢. The widest model-market gap on the board at 7.2 projected wins, and the one place both hosts sit above their own model. CJ projects 10 on the argument that last season was the floor — Minnesota still went 9-8 with the worst quarterback play in the league, behind Brian Flores' defense and Kevin O'Connell's staff. Gene makes it conditional on the quarterback: over if Kyler Murray starts, under if JJ McCarthy does.
Closes on how these four front offices avoided overpaying at receiver, and the contracts coming due for Jahmyr Gibbs, Caleb Williams and Rome Odunze.
▸ READ THE FULL BREAKDOWN
Every number, the full board and the model pages: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/nfc-north-win-totals-2026-lions-bears-packers-vikings
The complete 18-team 2026 win-totals series: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/articles/nfl-win-totals-2026-fade-the-field-18-teams
Every episode, archived: https://predictionmarketspicks.com/fade-the-field
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