This is the election night conversation. On Tuesday, as the Michigan primary returns came in, Grant sat down live with Mike Madrid from The Great Transformation and Jeff Timmer, the former executive director of the Michigan Republican Party and Lincoln Project co-founder, to watch the Abdul El-Sayed vs. Haley Stevens race in real time.

They called El-Sayed the winner before the night was over — and left before things got really interesting. But the conversation they had while the votes were coming in is worth hearing because it's how political strategists actually think and talk about these races, and this one has implications far beyond Michigan.

The conversation covers: why the DSA wave is a genuine political phenomenon and not a fringe moment, why the Democratic Party has not had a battle for its heart and soul in a decade and is paying for it now, why "tree stumps and doorknobs" could win in 2026 on anti-Trump sentiment alone but 2028 is a different problem entirely, why Republicans keep playing the same Jedi mind trick on Democrats and why Democrats keep falling for it, and what the actual economic message is that could win this election — Jeff's "cost of living and let them eat cake corruption" frame is the sharpest political advice in the episode.

Note: they dipped out at around 9:15 ET, well before the race was called and before El-Sayed's margin narrowed to one point. For the full breakdown of what actually happened, listen to yesterday's episode.

More conversations like this are coming on Substack as the midterms approach, including on election night in November.

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CHAPTERS

0:00 Grant explains the format: election night, live returns, two former Republicans watching the Democratic future

1:49 Introductions: Mike Madrid, Great Transformation; Jeff Timmer, former executive director of the Michigan GOP

4:30 What's actually at stake tonight: DSA vs. establishment, and why Michigan is the bellwether

12:00 Early returns come in: what the numbers are showing and what they might mean

25:00 The polling gap: why Michigan is notoriously hard to poll and what turnout tells us

38:00 The Democratic identity crisis: what the party stands against vs. what it stands for

50:00 The Jedi mind trick Republicans keep playing on Democrats — and why Democrats keep taking the bait

58:00 Jeff's economic message frame: "cost of living and let them eat cake corruption"

1:06:00 The DNC is the dog sitting in a burning room saying "this is fine" — Ken Martin and the missing chapter

1:11:00 Tree stumps and doorknobs could win in 2026. 2028 is a completely different problem.

1:13:38 Wrap-up: El-Sayed wins, the DSA wave is real, and what comes next for both parties

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Abdul El-Sayed beat Congresswoman Haley Stevens in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary by one point. He had a 15-point lead in polls going in. Grant was on the ground for election night and breaks down exactly what happened, why the race was so much closer than expected, and why the gap between the polling and the result almost certainly came down to Black voters in and around Detroit — their connection to Obama's auto industry rescue, lingering resentment over El-Sayed's ties to the Uncommitted Movement, and real skepticism about a Muslim candidate even in the state with the highest Arab-American population in the country.

The Detroit NAACP president put it plainly to CNN: "Are you going to be more concerned about the West Bank than the West Side of Detroit?"

Then the race immediately became something else. Within hours of El-Sayed winning, the National Republican Senate Committee released a press release using his full birth name to imply he's a dangerous foreigner. He was born in Rochester Hills, Michigan. Trump said he hates Jews. His opponent Mike Rogers accused him of supporting 9/11. White House advisor Laura Loomer called him part of the "browning of America." AIPAC spent $30 million against El-Sayed in the primary and vowed to keep spending through November.

And then the Democratic establishment launched its own attack. Third Way, an establishment Democratic group, announced it will spend $15 million between now and 2028 to discredit democratic socialism — in a year when the party is $2 million in the red and being outspent by Republicans by $132 million. The head of Third Way called progressive candidates a "mortal danger" to the party.

Grant explains why this is now the most important Senate race in the country and what comes next.

Cheers to two Years of Make It Make Sense! Independent journalism only works with your support, so thank you! The price is still $5/month, but that changes August 20th. Subscribe now to lock in $5/month or $50/year!

CHAPTERS

0:00 — El-Sayed wins Michigan by one point. The most important primary just became the most important midterm race.

1:30 — What happened to the 15-point lead: why Michigan is hard to poll and what the turnout numbers tell us

3:00 — Why Republicans crossing party lines to vote for Stevens doesn't hold up

4:00 — The real story: Black voters in Detroit, the auto industry, the Uncommitted Movement, and Muslim skepticism

5:30 — The Detroit NAACP president: "Are you more concerned about the West Bank than the West Side of Detroit?"

6:30 — Within hours: the NRSC uses his full birth name, Trump says he hates Jews, Rogers accuses him of supporting 9/11

8:00 — Laura Loomer calls El-Sayed part of the "browning of America." He was born in Rochester Hills, Michigan.

9:00 — AIPAC spent $30 million against him in the primary and vows to keep spending through November

9:45 — El-Sayed's response at his victory rally the morning after

10:30 — Sponsor break

11:30 — The Democratic establishment's own attack: Third Way spends $15 million to fight progressive candidates

13:00 — The DSA wave: El-Sayed, Mamdani, Rabb, Kiros, McKinney — a national pattern, not an accident

14:30 — Why the Democratic Party is fighting itself with $15 million while $2 million in the red

15:30 — Why this is now the most important midterm race in the country

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Four stories today, none of them good for anyone in charge.

On Iran: Trump said the US was on the verge of its largest attack since World War Two. He called it off just before markets opened Monday. A CNN exclusive revealed the Pentagon is now asking rank-and-file troops for "creative and unconventional" ideas for how to punish Iran because there is no plan. A Reuters exclusive revealed the US has used virtually all of its interceptor missiles — not low, not running short, nearly all of them. There is no plan and no capability to respond to a counterstrike.

On the reflecting pool: Trump's hand-picked US attorney, former Fox News host Jeanine Pirro, dropped charges against Olympic kayaker David Hearn because the Department of Interior's own engineer had inspected the pool a week before the arrest and documented that the peeling was caused by a botched installation, not vandalism. Trump admitted in the Oval Office that the job was rushed and he knew about it. Grant and multiple other journalists have asked for the surveillance video Trump claims shows vandalism. Nobody has it.

On Todd Blanche: around midnight Sunday, Blanche filed two pages agreeing that the slush fund is dead and that Trump's IRS immunity only applies retroactively — protecting the Trump family from audits or prosecution for anything before May 19th, 2026, which covers exactly the window in which they made billions in crypto deals. Legal scholars say the document may not be binding, is only signed by Blanche, and could be undone the moment he's confirmed.

On the DNC: the author of the Democrats' 2024 election autopsy gave the New York Times the 28-page chapter that was deliberately left out of the public report. That chapter found Biden's decision to run despite never cracking 50% approval was the central failure of 2024. The DNC disputes ever seeing it. Grant checked — the autopsy page on the DNC's own website has been taken down.

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