This is the election night conversation. On Tuesday, as the Michigan primary returns came in, Grant sat down live with Mike Madrid from The Great Transformation and Jeff Timmer, the former executive director of the Michigan Republican Party and Lincoln Project co-founder, to watch the Abdul El-Sayed vs. Haley Stevens race in real time.

They called El-Sayed the winner before the night was over — and left before things got really interesting. But the conversation they had while the votes were coming in is worth hearing because it's how political strategists actually think and talk about these races, and this one has implications far beyond Michigan.

The conversation covers: why the DSA wave is a genuine political phenomenon and not a fringe moment, why the Democratic Party has not had a battle for its heart and soul in a decade and is paying for it now, why "tree stumps and doorknobs" could win in 2026 on anti-Trump sentiment alone but 2028 is a different problem entirely, why Republicans keep playing the same Jedi mind trick on Democrats and why Democrats keep falling for it, and what the actual economic message is that could win this election — Jeff's "cost of living and let them eat cake corruption" frame is the sharpest political advice in the episode.

Note: they dipped out at around 9:15 ET, well before the race was called and before El-Sayed's margin narrowed to one point. For the full breakdown of what actually happened, listen to yesterday's episode.

More conversations like this are coming on Substack as the midterms approach, including on election night in November.

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CHAPTERS

0:00 Grant explains the format: election night, live returns, two former Republicans watching the Democratic future

1:49 Introductions: Mike Madrid, Great Transformation; Jeff Timmer, former executive director of the Michigan GOP

4:30 What's actually at stake tonight: DSA vs. establishment, and why Michigan is the bellwether

12:00 Early returns come in: what the numbers are showing and what they might mean

25:00 The polling gap: why Michigan is notoriously hard to poll and what turnout tells us

38:00 The Democratic identity crisis: what the party stands against vs. what it stands for

50:00 The Jedi mind trick Republicans keep playing on Democrats — and why Democrats keep taking the bait

58:00 Jeff's economic message frame: "cost of living and let them eat cake corruption"

1:06:00 The DNC is the dog sitting in a burning room saying "this is fine" — Ken Martin and the missing chapter

1:11:00 Tree stumps and doorknobs could win in 2026. 2028 is a completely different problem.

1:13:38 Wrap-up: El-Sayed wins, the DSA wave is real, and what comes next for both parties

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