Wine supplies continue to outstrip demand. Glenn Proctor of Ciatti and Jeff Bitter of Allied Grape Growers return to discuss the larger-than-(some)-expected 2025 California grape crush, the path to equilibrium in wine supply, and whether the costs of domestic production and competition from imports mean that every acre of wine grapes pulled out of production will never come back.
Topics covered in this discussion:

• The results from the California Grape Crush Report, why prices from that report don't reflect the actual health of wine grape and bulk wine pricing, and why so many industry analysts dramatically underestimated the size of last year's harvest.
• What the optimal strategy for wineries and growers is and whether buyers are pulling back on contracted commitments at the expense of future stability.
• What is going to happen to all those mothballed vineyards.
• The role of imports in replacing lost acres in California and the possibility that all future incremental demand for wine volumes in the US will be met by foreign producers.
  

Relevant time stamps:
03:20 – The status of acreage rightsizing in California and the not-so-good fate of mothballed vineyards.

22:45 – The bulk wine market, demand, and the lack of demand for old vintage wine.

33:30 – The crush report and what it means for different regions and growers.

43:15 – The financialization of the wine industry and incentives to leave your growers out in the cold.

52:30 – Imports, the road to recovery, and the dark world the future could hold.

Have a question, qualm or story to tell, reach out via email: Bourcard.Nesin@Rabobank.com

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Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

In late March, Brown-Forman Corporation and Pernod Ricard confirmed they were in talks about a potential merger that would bring together giant brands like Jack Daniels, Herradura, Woodford Reserve, Jameson, Beefeater, Absolut, and Chivas Regal. It would be a formidable lineup, which in terms of spirits sales would rival the scale of Diageo – long the largest spirits business in the history of the universe. Equity analyst Richard Withagen of Kepler Cheuvreux joins us to discuss the details and outlook for this blockbuster deal.

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

Many investors have abandoned the world of early-stage alcohol startups, leaving a gaping hole in the market. There is less money available to fuel startup growth, and potential buyers are demanding both scale and profitability, extending the time to achieve an exit and reshaping the optimal strategy for building a brand. Over the last five years, Jason Sherman (Top Shelf) and Nick Papanicolaou (No Sleep Beverage) each helped found venture capital firms specializing in alcohol. In this episode we explore where they see opportunity, what they consider when making an investment, and what buyers of the future will ultimately be looking for.

In this episode we discuss:

• The metrics that startups and investors should prioritize when measuring success.
• The current capital environment for early-stage startups and how to build a brand with way less money than before.
• Where the corporate VC model succeeded and why it ultimately failed to survive.
• Where innovation for large firms will come from in the future.

Notable time stamps:

2:23 – Jason and Nick share their background and the investment thesis behind their firms.

17:11 – How to measure velocity: The key metric for potential investors.

20:30 – The impact of the general environment on investor sentiment and capital availability for independent brands.

41:00 - A corporate VC post‑mortem and the future of innovation at large alcohol suppliers.

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

From 1970 to 1995, US per capita spirits consumption fell by nearly 50%. Yet some players, like Heaven Hill, emerged stronger and more diversified than when the downturn began. In this episode, Heaven Hill Chairman Max Shapira and President Kate Latts reflect on the company's 90‑year journey, offering first-person accounts of beverage alcohol's last major downturn, the subsequent revival in demand, and what lessons, if any, apply to the current marketplace.

In this episode we discuss:

• The drivers behind the collapse of alcohol sales in the 1970s and 1980s and the segments (wine, vodka, etc.) that actually grew during the downturn.
• The consolidation of the US bourbon industry, with the number of Kentucky distillers falling from 70 to 10 in just two decades.
• The drivers of the current market and whether they share any similarities with the 1980s.
• The outlook for the current US bourbon supply, and the risk of a shortage in three to five years.
• The moderated impact of oversupply on the sales performance of well-established brands v. startups.

Notable time stamps:
02:20 – History of Heaven Hill and building a diversified portfolio
09:21 – What caused alcohol sales to collapse from 1970 to 1995
12:39 – Parallels between the 1980s and today
19:17 – Drivers behind the current decline in alcohol demand and what is going on with millennials
32:13 – Why downturns and oversupply favor strong brands and what will happen to craft distillers
54:32 – Chaos in the distributor tier
01:02:28 – The post‑pandemic socialization reset

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

Fresh from their rather somber state-of-the-industry presentation, SipSource analysts Danny Brager and Dale Stratton help identify whether there are any areas of growth and promise in the wine and spirits business. Topics include:

• The performance of wine and spirits depletions in 2025 and the outlook for 2026.
• The surprising resilience of RTD growth rates.
• Prosecco's continuing strong performance.
• The wine industry trying more innovative marketing strategies.
• The importance of finding the right packaging formats.
• If consumers actually want low-alcohol products or if they want low-calorie and low-sugar products.

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

Oliver Winery is one of the largest wine businesses in the United States. It is located in Indiana. In this episode, CEO Pat Brown shares how the unusual origins of the business have helped the company capture consumers who would otherwise be overlooked by the wine business, as well as the advantages of operating a winery outside the West Coast.

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

Danny Wirtz, Co-Chairman of Breakthru Beverage Group, discusses how brands are rethinking national agreements and what success looks like when performance, not footprint, are the primary concern for suppliers' route-to-market strategy. Themes from the episode:

• How did Breakthru shift strategy after a planned merger with Republic National Distributing Company was terminated in 2019?
• What does geographic expansion look like in the current market? What is driving decisions about footprint?
• Are suppliers deprioritizing a national footprint? Are there still benefits from those national partnerships?
• How is the push from beer wholesalers and Reyes Beverage Group changing the strategies of wine and spirits wholesalers?
• What are Danny's thoughts, as CEO of the Chicago Blackhawks, about the boost his sport has received from the international phenomenon Heated Rivalry?

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

We caught up with Francis Creighton, President and CEO of Wine & Spirits Wholesalers of America, on the floor at this year's Access Live conference in Las Vegas. In addition to helping its members navigate a very difficult business environment, the lobbying group representing US wine and spirits wholesalers in the US has a full advocacy agenda. Francis quickly brings us up to date on its legislative priorities and how wholesalers are dealing with the tough times.

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.