Wine supplies continue to outstrip demand. Glenn Proctor of Ciatti and Jeff Bitter of Allied Grape Growers return to discuss the larger-than-(some)-expected 2025 California grape crush, the path to equilibrium in wine supply, and whether the costs of domestic production and competition from imports mean that every acre of wine grapes pulled out of production will never come back.
Topics covered in this discussion:

• The results from the California Grape Crush Report, why prices from that report don't reflect the actual health of wine grape and bulk wine pricing, and why so many industry analysts dramatically underestimated the size of last year's harvest.
• What the optimal strategy for wineries and growers is and whether buyers are pulling back on contracted commitments at the expense of future stability.
• What is going to happen to all those mothballed vineyards.
• The role of imports in replacing lost acres in California and the possibility that all future incremental demand for wine volumes in the US will be met by foreign producers.
  

Relevant time stamps:
03:20 – The status of acreage rightsizing in California and the not-so-good fate of mothballed vineyards.

22:45 – The bulk wine market, demand, and the lack of demand for old vintage wine.

33:30 – The crush report and what it means for different regions and growers.

43:15 – The financialization of the wine industry and incentives to leave your growers out in the cold.

52:30 – Imports, the road to recovery, and the dark world the future could hold.

Have a question, qualm or story to tell, reach out via email: Bourcard.Nesin@Rabobank.com

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

In late March, Brown-Forman Corporation and Pernod Ricard confirmed they were in talks about a potential merger that would bring together giant brands like Jack Daniels, Herradura, Woodford Reserve, Jameson, Beefeater, Absolut, and Chivas Regal. It would be a formidable lineup, which in terms of spirits sales would rival the scale of Diageo – long the largest spirits business in the history of the universe. Equity analyst Richard Withagen of Kepler Cheuvreux joins us to discuss the details and outlook for this blockbuster deal.

Have a question, qualm or story to tell, reach out via email: Bourcard.Nesin@Rabobank.com

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Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.

Many investors have abandoned the world of early-stage alcohol startups, leaving a gaping hole in the market. There is less money available to fuel startup growth, and potential buyers are demanding both scale and profitability, extending the time to achieve an exit and reshaping the optimal strategy for building a brand. Over the last five years, Jason Sherman (Top Shelf) and Nick Papanicolaou (No Sleep Beverage) each helped found venture capital firms specializing in alcohol. In this episode we explore where they see opportunity, what they consider when making an investment, and what buyers of the future will ultimately be looking for.

In this episode we discuss:

• The metrics that startups and investors should prioritize when measuring success.
• The current capital environment for early-stage startups and how to build a brand with way less money than before.
• Where the corporate VC model succeeded and why it ultimately failed to survive.
• Where innovation for large firms will come from in the future.

Notable time stamps:

2:23 – Jason and Nick share their background and the investment thesis behind their firms.

17:11 – How to measure velocity: The key metric for potential investors.

20:30 – The impact of the general environment on investor sentiment and capital availability for independent brands.

41:00 - A corporate VC post‑mortem and the future of innovation at large alcohol suppliers.

Have a question, qualm or story to tell, reach out via email: Bourcard.Nesin@Rabobank.com

Sign up to access our written research: RaboResearch sign-up

Note: The content and opinions presented within this podcast are not intended as investment advice, and the opinions rendered are that of the individuals and not Rabobank or its affiliates and should not be considered a solicitation or offer to sell or provide services.

Disclaimer: Please refer to our global RaboResearch disclaimer at https://www.rabobank.com/knowledge/disclaimer/011417027/disclaimer for information about the scope and limitations of the material published on the podcast.