Manu Bhaskaran, founding director and head of Centennial Asia Advisors, returns to Kopi Time ahead of Singapore’s 61st birthday. We begin by taking stock of Singapore’s recent economic performance, with growth accelerating and investments surging. Manu walks us through the sectoral outcomes and productivity developments, noting that while the electronics industry is leading the charge, growth is more broad-based. We then talk about health and education outcomes, demographic challenges, and the thorny issue of inequality. Manu shares his ideas on social safety expansion, especially with respect to the cost of childcare, but also elderly care. We transition to Singapore’s symbiosis with neighbouring jurisdictions, particularly Johor. We conclude with geopolitics, and the challenges of balancing great power rivalry.

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In this episode, we get expert view on the ongoing, historic tech wave. Ravi Vijayaraghavan, head of APAC Technology & Cloud Services practice at Bain and Company, offers a wide range of insights, starting with the implication of the unprecedented scale of capital spending on AI build-out taking place presently. We compare this tech cycle with past ones, consider sectors that are in vogue (hardware) and that are not (software). Ravi shares his observations on the state of high tech in China, US, North Asia, South-East Asia, and South Asia. We also discuss various moon-shot ideas at the frontier of tech. We conclude with the ethics of AI, and regulatory implications.

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We discuss energy market outlook with Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based provider of energy market intelligence. We begin with the crude and refined product bottleneck created by the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and what it means for Asia and Europe. We then delve into the supply and demand responses since the Iran war began, especially with the way China and the US are dealing with the fallout. Vandana is bearish the supply side outlook even if the Strait were to re-open as part of another temporary ceasefire. We conclude by discussing the lessons from this crisis, from strategic reserves to wider supply base, from regional cooperation on resilient grids, storage, and pipelines to accelerate renewable energy production capacities. Vandana does not see the future as either/or; nations have to increase investments in the entire energy stack.

Clarification: Vandana notes that crude futures six months out and 12 months out are almost $15 and $20 lower respectively.

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Should AI be nationalised, or at least have a substantial part of its equity held by the public sector? I collaborated recently with author and economist Anthony Annett to delve into this issue. The resulting op-ed, published on Singapore’s Business Times (link here: https://bt.sg/g/DyLA), and the torrent of feedback we have received since it came out, is the subject of this Kopi Time episode. Tony and I go over the key arguments—public safety, strategic importance, distributional fairness, and common imperative, and respond to the various lines of arguments against them, from it’s too late, it’s not feasible, it will harm innovation, and the government is the problem, not the solution. By referring to relevant history of economic thought, experience with public ownership of strategic assets in the 20th century, and a common-sense risk management approach, we think our responses are adequate. You can be the judge.

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A year since the reciprocal tariff bombshell, how has trade changed and what realignments are in the making? We invite back to Kopi Time, Deborah Elms, Hinrich Foundation’s head of trade policy, to mark the tumultuous period. We begin by taking stock of the macro impact on the US and rest of the world over the past year, with little evidence of a major change in the import appetite of American consumers or export viability of Asia. Deborah points out that there is nonetheless a substantial realignment in production origins and trade patterns. We talk about the many uncertain aspects related to new rounds of US tariffs, investigations, and deal status for most countries in the world. We conclude with a roundup on the many consequential deals being done outside the US, and the parts of WTO framework still functional. Wars may command headlines presently; trade matters are not going away at all.

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The week of the IMF Spring Meetings were characterised by a stark contrast. Markets focused on fading war risks and kept rallying. But official sector and analysts’ warnings about public debt, energy security, future of the USD, and Fed leadership risks loomed over the meetings. Commodity price/supply shocks likely to be substantial; growth forecasts are at risk. Energy source diversification, reserves, infrastructure, and renewables under focus. China better positioned via stocks, suppliers, coal, and green energy progress. War worsens debt, deficits and balance-of-payments strains extend to nations beyond the combatants. USD faces trust/payment-system challenges; Fed transition uncertainty is rising.

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The first time Tan Su Shan came on Kopi Time, it was right after the war in Ukraine had broken out and energy and food prices were spiking worldwide. Four years later, another war and another bout of inflation and associated risks are to the fore. We begin our conversation with Su Shan comparing the two episodes, with strategies to guide the bank and its clients through the fog of war. It’s also a year since the reciprocal tariff shock, which coincided with her taking over the top job at DBS. We discuss how businesses are learning to live with the chronic uncertainty emanating from trade relations with the US, and thriving nonetheless, especially with trade outside the US. Our conversation then moves on to tech, especially the impact of AI and implication for jobs. Reflecting on her recent trips to the US and China, Su Shan highlights both the promises and challenges of the AI boom. We conclude with a discussion on the future of banking given the spate of disruptions taking place in the fintech arena.

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In a recent collaboration with Dr. Leslie Teo, Senior Director of AI Products at AI Singapore, we published an article on redefining jobs and expertise in the AI era (link here). The process of writing the article entailed making several Large Language Models work for many hours, searching through hundreds of top journal articles, establishing key insights from the latest research findings, and carrying out economic analysis (link to our companion piece on the process is here). In this podcast, Leslie and I talk about deploying the ever-improving AI agents, along with the need for human judgment, emotional quotient, and leadership in work. As tasks become more automated and we become more productive, what is the role of educators, firms, and governments in embracing the upside while managing labour market disruptions? Leslie’s sharing on all this should allay the fears of those who see a dystopian future in the making.

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