Canada’s housing market is becoming more affordable, but just as buyers are getting some relief, a new set of risks is emerging.

The latest RBC affordability data shows condo affordability nationally has improved all the way back to late-2019 levels, reversing much of the deterioration that followed the pandemic. Toronto and Victoria are now even more affordable than they were in 2019, while Vancouver is only a few percentage points away.

Renters are also gaining ground. Average Canadian rents have fallen 4.8% year-over-year to $2,035, marking the 23rd consecutive month of annual declines. Vancouver rents are down 2.4% to $2,729, while record levels of purpose-built rental construction continue adding competition for tenants.

But affordability is only one side of the equation.

Canada unexpectedly lost 41,700 jobs in August, compared with expectations for a 15,000 gain. Unemployment remained at 6.4%, but wage growth slowed to just 2%, its weakest pace since 2017. The question now is whether this was simply one weak month or the beginning of tariffs and slowing growth showing up in employment.

Meanwhile, mortgage borrowers face a very different problem.

Canada’s five-year government bond yield reached 3.63%, a 27-month high, as bond yields surge globally amid inflation concerns, enormous government borrowing and geopolitical instability. Because five-year Canadian bond yields heavily influence fixed mortgage pricing, mortgage rates can rise even while the Bank of Canada keeps its overnight rate unchanged.

Markets are also increasingly contemplating Bank of Canada rate hikes. At the time of recording, market pricing implied a 42% probability of an October hike and 78% by December, with additional increases being priced into 2027. Those probabilities can change rapidly, but the dramatic shift illustrates how quickly the interest-rate narrative has reversed.

Development is providing equally dramatic examples of the market reset.

CURV, the proposed 60-storey luxury Vancouver tower once marketed as the world’s tallest Passive House and famous for offering a Porsche promotion, entered receivership after selling only 41 units. Presale contracts have now been terminated, and the 1075 Nelson Street development site is back on the market. The land had reportedly been appraised between $169 million and $183 million in 2024, illustrating just how dramatically development economics have changed.

And even completed projects aren't immune to problems. Owners at Coquitlam’s 567 Clarke + Como have filed a lawsuit alleging defects involving waterproofing, windows, HVAC, concrete, balconies and elevators. None of the allegations have been proven in court, and the developer disputes the claim, but the case provides an important reminder for condo buyers: new does not automatically mean risk-free.

Finally, Vancouver's fall market is beginning under a cloud of uncertainty. Only 447 homes sold during the first nine days of September, compared with 539 during the same period last year, a roughly 20% decline. It's far too early to call the month, but the initial numbers point toward an unusually slow start.

The contradiction is becoming impossible to ignore: housing and rents are becoming more affordable, but employment is weakening and borrowing costs threaten to rise again.

For Vancouver real estate, the next phase may be determined by which of those forces wins.

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