Task Force Iron Gate is supposed to close 2,000 kilometers of Iranian land border from an office in Florida. Operation Economic Outcast was sold as “economic D-Day” two and a half months ago, and the fact that Washington needs another blockade tells you how that went. Meanwhile October saw more ships hit heading into the Strait of Hormuz than any month of the war, transit costs have jumped from a dollar a barrel to thirty five, and the US Navy is spending billions escorting tankers that still get hit. Nobody is calling this escalation, but that is what it is.

Peter argues the war has been on autopilot since April because there is no military solution, and that Trump keeps pulling back from strikes because some sane part of him knows it. The real danger may come later: an Eisenkot government with a comfortable relationship with Schumer and Jeffries could hand the Democrats a war they can call their own. Charlie asks what this has done to the US military’s reputation when CENTCOM is posting a $20 million bounty for information on the nuclear program the war was supposedly about, and launching a podcast to fix its image.

Then Ukraine. Kiev is on a power schedule of three and a half hours a day with warnings of 36 hour outages, residents are being told to dig latrines, the Northern Bridge has been hit, and the Russians have started striking the one substation keeping the capital alive. Peter says he will be surprised if Ukraine is holding on in any fashion six months from now. Plus Poland’s constitutional crisis, the Krakow shooting, and Budanov fined for speaking Russian.

Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:03 Iron Gate: a war on autopilot
4:48 Economic Outcast flopped, now this
6:43 Pakistan, Turkey and the border game
9:56 “Self defense” strikes on Qeshm and Jask
15:04 15% of Hormuz ships hit, $35 a barrel transit
20:17 Boiling the frog toward full war
21:10 Trump’s temptation, the IDF waits for Eisenkot
24:28 Will the Democrats back an Eisenkot war?
30:09 CENTCOM’s $20M bounty and a shattered reputation
40:29 The Pentagon podcast and the hegemonic mindset
49:29 Kiev: three and a half hours of power a day
55:46 This winter something breaks
1:02:27 Poland’s constitutional crisis and the Krakow shooting
1:06:47 Budanov fined for speaking Russian

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