A New York City bar is covering every customer's tab if the Knicks win game one — and they're hedging the entire risk on a prediction market. Chris and Henry break down why this is one of the smartest real-world use cases for prediction markets yet and how Mattress Mack was doing this years before prediction markets existed. Also, Polymarket resolves a MicroStrategy Bitcoin market to No even though the sale actually happened before the deadline and Kalshi launches the American Power Index.

Then Josh (@spacemanOTH) joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. Josh runs a two-person betting operation focused on college football, NBA player props, and prediction market making. He breaks down how he built his team by identifying complementary skill sets at BetBash, why profiling your competitors in Survivor is just as important as picking the right team, how he thinks about toxic order flow and protecting his book as a small operation, the rookie mistake of uploading quotes in a predictable window every day, and why he took a shot on Trump in 2024.

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@insidepredictionmarkets

OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.

Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewform

This content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

0:00 – NYC Bar Hedging Knicks

2:41 – Polymarket Resolves a Market Wrong

4:34 – Kalshi American Power Index

7:20 – Introducing Josh @spacemanOTH

9:52 – How Josh Built His Team

12:00 – RFQs: Free Money or a Dangerous Experiment?

16:00 – Profiling Competitors in Survivor and Market Making

23:00 – The Rookie Mistake That Cost Him

28:00 – Low-Hanging Fruit vs. Long Term Building

33:00 – Josh's Trump 2024 Bet

41:00 – Josh's Most Expensive Mistake

#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Kyle Kuzma — yes, the NBA player — became an unlikely prediction market hero this week by clapping back at the DraftKings co-founder's Twitter tirade. Then: the Ninth Circuit signals it's going to rule against prediction markets on sports contracts, setting up the split circuit that everyone was expecting and almost certainly sending this to the Supreme Court. Plus, the New York Times runs a piece on regular people beating Wall Street on prediction markets.

Then it's just Chris and Henry going deep on the terms that get thrown around constantly in prediction markets but rarely get properly defined. Adverse selection, top down, alpha, live betting, market making — each one broken down clearly with real examples, common misconceptions corrected, and listener questions answered along the way. If you've ever nodded along to a conversation in this space without fully understanding what's being said, this is the episode for you.

📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.

Chapters:

0:00 – Kyle Kuzma: Unlikely PM Hero

1:48 – Supreme Court Here We Come

4:39 – Regular Guys Are Beating Wall Street

7:06 – Defining Adverse Selection

10:30 – Defining Top Down

16:00 – Defining Alpha

22:51 – Defining Live Betting

30:00 – Listener Questions

34:15 – Defining Market Making#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting

Matt Kalish — co-founder of DraftKings — had a very public meltdown on Twitter this week about prediction markets, and Chris and Henry break down every angle. Sporttrade suspends OSB operations and Polymarket and Nasdaq announce perpetual contracts on individual stocks, which raises the obvious question: is this just an option with a different name?Then Zach from 4casters joins in the Optic Odds Hot Seat. 4casters has been quietly doubling year over year since 2021, approaching a billion in volume, and remains one of the only sharp-on-sharp exchanges in the space. Zach breaks down how that model actually sustains itself, why he's not rushing to become the twenty-fifth prediction market, what he really thinks the regulatory coin flip looks like over the next two years, and whether Polymarket USA just gets boxed out entirely if Novig gets to market first.📅 New Episodes Drop: Wednesdays 👇 Subscribe now.@insidepredictionmarkets OpticOdds is a global leader in sports betting data solutions, empowering sportsbooks, DFS, prediction markets and platform providers with the fastest, most reliable, and most comprehensive odds data and trading tools in the industry.Sign-up to join the Novig x OpticOdds incubator: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSd6VQ-OEHRs7JpEs7-tURuy6WRP4WGRtlyBfByDkhgJ9KEbHw/viewformThis content is for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and is not financial advice. Please do your own research. The views expressed are not necessarily those of Novig. All investing and prediction market trading involves risk, including the loss of principal.Chapters:0:00 – Matt Kalish Crashes Out on Twitter4:39 – Sporttrade Suspends OSB6:27 – Polymarket and Nasdaq Announce Stock Perps8:30 – Introducing Zach From 4casters11:00 – From Telegram Group Chat to a Billion in Volume19:00 – Navigating Fees24:00 – Novig Boxing Out Polymarket USA34:00 – Prediction Markets Teach Humility?35:02 – Zach's Most Expensive Mistake#predictionmarkets #kalshi #polymarket #novig #draftkings #fanduel #gambling #sports #betting