India’s economy at a crossroads: Robust revenues, emerging headwinds

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India’s economy at a crossroads: Robust revenues, emerging headwinds

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India’s latest high-frequency economic indicators present a mixed, yet broadly resilient, picture. In this episode of State of the Economy, businessLine’s Shishir Sinha speaks with Arun Singh, Chief Economist at Dun & Bradstreet, to examine the significance of record GST collections, rising import-linked tax revenues, trends in the newly introduced Index of Services Production (ISP), and the evolving fiscal deficit situation. The discussion explores whether strong tax collections and robust capital expenditure point to sustained economic momentum, even as forward-looking indicators suggest moderation in the services sector and business confidence. Singh also shares his outlook for inflation, warning that rising wholesale prices could eventually feed through to consumer inflation, and explains why government spending may need to remain elevated despite fiscal pressures.The episode concludes with a preview of upcoming economic data releases, including retail inflation and GDP growth figures. Singh projects Q1 GDP growth of around 7.3-7.5 per cent, while cautioning that growth could soften in subsequent quarters amid global uncertainties and domestic challenges. (Host: Shishir Sinha; Producers: Shakthi H, Siddharth MC)

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