The Travel Time Budget that stopped road growth in its tracks
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The Travel Time Budget that stopped road growth in its tracks
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The Travel Time Budget that stopped road growth in its tracks
In this episode, we follow how decades of transportation research and government reports tracked a surprising halt in driving growth and the idea that people keep a roughly constant travel time each day. We ask how planners kept building roads even as miles driven stopped climbing, and what that mismatch means for cities and budgets.
Person: Miller McClintock
Date: 1925
Person: Sir Colin Buchanan
Date: 1963
Person: Tulpule
Date: 1973
Person: Lee Schipper
Date: 1993-2011
- McClintock in 1925 predicted saturation at about one vehicle per five people and warned added lanes wouldn’t solve congestion.
- Buchanan’s 1963 Traffic in Towns report calculated a city’s vehicle capacity had a hard arithmetic endpoint.
- Tulpule’s 1973 government study projected UK car ownership would peak around 2010 with minimal growth thereafter.
- Lee Schipper tracked slowing or halted driving growth across the US, Canada, UK, Germany, France, Sweden, Japan, and Australia from 1993 onward.
- Multiple studies since the 1970s documented a Travel Time Budget: people spend ~one hour per day traveling, so faster roads expand distance, not saved time.
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