Global Canola Market Summary

• Canada: Production is forecast to ease slightly to 22.1 million tons in 2026/27. A record harvested area of 23 million acres offsets a notable yield drop to 41.8 bushels per acre. Exports are estimated above 8 million tons, and 2025/26 closing stocks were finalized at 1.9 million tons, lower than earlier forecasts. Domestic crush is set to reach a record 13.7 million tons in 2026/27, up 13% year on year. Expanded capacity, including the Yorkton plant, could support canola oil exports of up to 4 million tons. Crush margins remain strong, and renewed Chinese buying after tariff removals is supporting sentiment. Delayed harvests are raising frost and green seed risks, notably in Alberta and Saskatchewan.
• Australia: Supply is tightening because of limited moisture in the eastern states, despite a larger planted area. Forecasts diverge widely: ABARES projects 7.3 million tons, while the USDA projects 6.18 million tons. Renewed Chinese interest, driven by private sector purchases, offers an encouraging demand outlook.
• European Union: Production is forecast to decline to 19.85 million tons, increasing reliance on imports after a marked drop in third-country imports. Low water levels on the Rhine and Moselle are severely disrupting transport and squeezing crush margins.
• Germany: Harvest results fell short of expectations, mainly because of pest pressure worsened by inadequate pest control. The shortfall increases reliance on external supply amid reduced regional imports and logistical bottlenecks.
• Ukraine: The harvest totaled 3.789 million tons, with a significant share going to exports and domestic processing. Softer domestic demand and logistical competition from other crops are weighing on market conditions.
• Russia: Canola expansion continues, with production projected at 7.3 to 8 million tons. Over 90% of rapeseed oil exports go to China, and Russian supply is adding competitive pressure in the EU market.
• India: Pre-sowing conditions are a concern in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, where rainfall deficits risk delaying planting. Conditions in Rajasthan remain stable.