Global Cocoa Market Summary

• Cote d'Ivoire: The 2025/26 season delivered a record 2.06 million tons, up 30% year on year, with port arrivals reaching 2.14 million tons by mid-September (18% to 19% growth) and the farm gate price steady at 1,200 CFA francs per kilogram. The 2026/27 outlook is concerning. Early field surveys point to deficient cherelle formation and poor pod development, with output projected to fall to about 1.8 million tons. Early September deliveries stood at just 26,000 tons, down 45.8% year on year, and the main crop may be delayed by 8 to 10 weeks. Key risks include inadequate rainfall causing premature pod drop, quality problems from insufficient sun-drying under cloudy skies, and rising black pod disease. The recent shift to an earlier marketing year start adds pressure on delivery schedules.
• Ghana: Harvests rose 25.6% in 2025/26, but COCOBOD's 2026/27 projections range from 450,000 to 650,000 tons, a potential reduction of up to 38%. The forecast reflects swollen shoot disease, aging plantations, and expected El Nino impacts. Financial strain is mounting, as licensed buying companies are owed substantial sums. A lower effective farm gate price raises smuggling risk and threatens crop mobilization, while the proposed 6% farm gate increase could prompt farmers to withhold sales.
• Nigeria: Export growth has been strong, but 2026/27 production is expected to fall by 11%. Compliance with the EU Deforestation Regulation is a critical challenge that could affect half of national output.
• Ecuador: The country's ambition to become the second-largest producer depends on the disease-prone CCN51 clone. Record rainfall in several regions raises the risk of frosty pod rot, waterlogging, and harvest delays from rapid disease spread.
• Togo: Production has risen, but exports have fallen 62.9%. The decline stems from liquidity constraints among buyers rather than production issues.
• Indonesia: Record rainfall in Aceh is increasing black pod risk. Dry conditions in Sulawesi raise concerns about cherelle formation and pod development.