Global Sunflower Market Summary

• Kazakhstan: Abnormal summer heat and drought have hit production in East Kazakhstan hard. Planted area increased, but yields have fallen to 3.0 to 3.2 tons per hectare, down from 4.0 tons per hectare last year. Oversupply drove domestic prices down almost 27% in a week to 162,000 tenge per ton. Higher carryover stocks and an export duty on raw seed are making the glut worse and forcing reliance on domestic processors. Lower yields combined with depressed prices threaten the viability of future plantings. Fourth-quarter domestic crush volume relative to new crop intake is a key metric to watch.
• Ukraine: The harvest is behind schedule despite improved yields, with 14% to 14.5% of the area harvested compared with 26.7% last year. Regional productivity is highest in Lviv, Volyn, and Ternopil. Prices continue to fall, driven by logistical constraints rather than supply. Maritime restrictions, diesel shortages, and rising freight costs are complicating movement, and crushers switching to rapeseed are reducing sunflower intake further. With 86% of the harvest still to come, inland storage risks saturation, which could trigger distress selling. Key indicators include the spread between domestic seed prices and FOB Black Sea oil values, and export throughput capacity.
• Russia: Sunflower oil exports to India are the key channel, with revenue rising significantly even as overall first-half exports declined. A record seed harvest of 19.5 million tons is projected. Export duties and rerouted logistics add substantial costs. The suspension of the Azov-Don Canal and reliance on Caspian and Black Sea routes are creating logistical imbalances. Storage near capacity threatens crushing rates, and constrained export execution could push farm gate seed bids lower. The pace of domestic storage saturation needs close monitoring.