Global Soybean Market Summary

• United States: 2026/27 production is estimated at 4.519 billion bushels, up 6.4%, on 86.8 million planted acres. Harvest progress is ahead of normal, but crop conditions are weaker than in prior years, with only 58% rated good to excellent. Demand remains robust on substantial Chinese state purchases, and new crop export commitments have nearly doubled from last year. Domestic crush is strong despite slightly missing forecasts, and US soybeans are priced competitively against Brazilian supplies.
• Brazil: Record 2025/26 production and a range of 2026/27 forecasts underline the country's central role in the global market. High production costs are limiting planted area growth to marginal levels. Substantial increases in crush and exports continue to strengthen Brazil's market position. Weather conditions across several states pose risks to planting and yields.
• Argentina: 2026/27 production is forecast to rise to 53.6 million tons, though some data point to lower yields. The robust crushing sector and rising meal exports underline its strategic role, even though the country has been a net importer of raw beans in recent months.
• China: State buyers are contracting significant volumes of US soybeans. Overall import demand is still projected to decline because of high domestic inventories and heavy import duties on US supplies. Regional weather risks could affect domestic output and, in turn, import needs.
• Ukraine: In theory, Ukraine could capture market share where US and Brazilian supply falls short. In practice, recent policy disruptions and processing that favors domestic markets over exports constrain that potential. Logistical challenges and export duties further limit its reach despite competitive pricing.
• India: Soybean oil imports are soaring as domestic production falls and adverse weather affects key growing regions. These pressures add complexity to India's wider agricultural import needs.