In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ibraheem Bahiss, Crisis Group’s Afghanistan expert based in Kabul, to assess where the country stands nearly five years after the Taliban’s return to power. They discuss the improved security across much of Afghanistan, even as many remain uncertain about the durability of Taliban rule. They examine the Taliban’s sweeping restrictions on women’s and girls’ rights, particularly education, work and public life, and how these have undercut efforts to normalise relations abroad. They also look at the poppy ban and how it has affected rural livelihoods and the drug trade and how the Taliban now generate revenue. They then turn to the sharply deteriorating relations with Pakistan over Islamabad’s accusations that the Taliban are sheltering militants conducting cross-border attacks, and the uncertain prospects for talks between Kabul and Islamabad. Finally, they discuss the Taliban’s engagement with regional powers and their recent outreach to Europe and where the country is headed under their rule.

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For more, check out our Afghanistan page.

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In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran director, to unpack the memorandum of understanding reached between the U.S. and Iran on Sunday to shore up a fragile ceasefire and open the way for further talks. They discuss what is known about the agreement and its provisions on reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending hostilities, including in Lebanon. They look at the diplomacy behind the deal, the role of regional mediators and what the agreement reveals about decision-making in Tehran. They also discuss the stumbling blocks ahead during the 60-day timeframe the MOU sets for negotiating a more durable arrangement, including on Iran’s nuclear program and sanctions relief. Finally, they look at the prospects for a broader regional security dialogue involving states that helped broker the understanding.

For more, check out our Iran page.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Naysan Rafati, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein and Michael Hanna about the shaky U.S.-Iran ceasefire and the state of negotiations between the two countries. Richard first speaks with Naysan about continued U.S.-Iran tit-for-tat exchanges, talks over a possible deal, what an initial agreement might entail and whether the confrontation has strengthened Tehran’s hand. Richard then speaks with Yasmine about how Gulf Arab states’ views of the conflict have shifted and U.S.-Gulf Arab relations. Next, Richard speaks with Mairav about Israel’s perspective, calls within the country’s military and security establishment to return to war, Israel’s campaign in Lebanon and why a change in leadership would not necessarily mean a less hawkish Israeli approach. Lastly, Richard speaks with Michael about U.S. domestic politics around an Iran deal, whether Trump can sell the off-ramp currently on offer and how continued ceasefire violations could still trigger another escalation.

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For more, check out our Middle East & North Africa page.

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