Are stocks really rising, or is the dollar just falling? Economist David Ranson explains why he measures wealth in gold instead of dollars, and what gold and oil prices are signaling right now about inflation, interest rates, bonds, and the stock market.

Drawing on more than a century of market data, Ranson walks through the indicators he uses to position across asset classes and how well they've forecast past turning points.

In this interview:

▸ Why gold is a better deflator than CPI for measuring real returns

▸ How stocks have actually performed when priced in gold

▸ The surprising way oil prices predict stock market moves

▸ Using gold and oil to forecast inflation and interest rates

▸ Emerging markets, currency surprises, and where the opportunities are

▸ How fiscal insolvency affects the price of gold

▸ His outlook for gold, inflation, the US dollar, and bond yields over the next year

⏱️ CHAPTERS

00:00 Introduction

02:26 Asset class positioning & confidence levels

05:37 Why you should measure stocks in real terms

07:50 Why gold is a better deflator than CPI

08:24 Stocks deflated by gold: the historical record

09:35 100 years of gold and oil prices

11:01 Gold as a safe haven and inflation indicator

12:27 How oil prices behave over the long term

13:25 How oil prices predict stock market moves

15:51 Forecasting stock returns with oil and gold

17:40 Real vs. nominal stock market performance

18:22 What gold and oil say about bonds

20:15 Forecasting inflation and interest rates

22:24 Is inflation accelerating or decelerating?

23:55 How accurate has the model been?

24:45 Emerging markets & currency surprises

28:16 Investment strategies for emerging markets

29:23 Outlook: gold, inflation, and the US dollar

30:36 Outlook: bond prices and yields next year

31:02 Closing thoughts

👤 ABOUT DAVID RANSON

R. David Ranson is a Research Fellow at the Independent Institute and the President and Director of Research at HCWE Inc. (formerly H.C. Wainwright & Company). He holds an M.A. and B.Sc. degrees from Queen’s College, Oxford, and an M.B.A. in finance and a Ph.D. in business economics from the University of Chicago.

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⚠️ This video is for educational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. Do your own research or consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.