The Federal Reserve has been cutting interest rates, but long-term Treasury yields keep climbing.

The 10-year Treasury reached approximately 5.3% this week, while the 30-year approached 5.7%—levels not seen in roughly 24 years.

So what's driving rates higher despite Fed cuts?

In this episode of The Weekly Read, Jeff Kikel explores several forces influencing the global bond market, including strong economic growth, enormous AI infrastructure spending, persistent inflation, and government borrowing.

But one of the most interesting explanations may be coming from Japan.

For years, investors borrowed money at extremely low Japanese interest rates and invested in higher-yielding assets, including U.S. Treasuries.

Now, as Japanese rates rise and the yen strengthens, some investors may be unwinding those positions.

That selling pressure could be contributing to rising Treasury yields worldwide.

Jeff explains the yen carry trade in plain English, why the AI investment boom and rising interest rates are connected, and why he's watching the 6% level on the 10-year Treasury as a potential warning sign.

The takeaway: Don't assume Federal Reserve rate cuts automatically translate into lower long-term borrowing costs. Global capital flows matter.

Exit Rich…Retire Free — The Weekly Read

Hosted by Jeff Kikel

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

Companies mentioned in this episode:

• OpenAI
• Apple Inc.
• Delta Air Lines
• JPMorgan Chase & Co.
• Goldman Sachs
• PIMCO
• NASDAQ
• Exit Rich

Earnings season is underway, and two companies just demonstrated one of the most important lessons investors can learn.

Taiwan Semiconductor beat Wall Street expectations, but its stock fell roughly 2%.

Pepsi also beat expectations, lowered its outlook, and discussed layoffs—yet its stock rose approximately 2%.

Why would investors react so differently to two positive earnings reports?

In today's episode of The Daily Read, Jeff Kikel explains why stock prices are driven by expectations rather than headlines.

You'll learn why companies priced for perfection can fall even after strong results, why beaten-down stocks sometimes rally on modest improvements, and why management guidance often matters more than last quarter's performance.

Jeff also shares his personal three-day rule for avoiding earnings-related volatility and looks ahead to Delta and major bank earnings.

The takeaway: During earnings season, don't just watch whether a company beats expectations. Watch how the market reacts.

Exit Rich…Retire Free — The Daily Read

Hosted by Jeff Kikel

Educational content only. Not investment advice.

How much money do you really need to retire?

$2 million? $5 million?

The problem with those numbers is simple: whose retirement are we talking about?

Two people can have identical portfolios and need dramatically different amounts depending on their spending, Social Security, pensions, housing, taxes, retirement age and other income.

In this episode of Retire Free, I show you a simple four-step framework for finding your retirement number:

1. Estimate your annual retirement spending

2. Add up your reliable income — Social Security, pensions, annuity income, etc.

3. Subtract that income from your spending to find the gap

4. Divide the gap by an appropriate withdrawal rate

That's the basic math. How Much Do You Need To Retire …

Then we look at a hypothetical couple spending $200,000 per year with $45,000 of Social Security income. Their portfolio needs to cover roughly $155,000 annually, putting their target near $3.9 million at a 4% starting withdrawal rate.

Reduce spending to $180,000, however, and the target falls to roughly $3.4 million.

A relatively small lifestyle change moved the retirement number by approximately half a million dollars. How Much Do You Need To Retire …

We also cover:

• Why the 4% rule is a starting point, not a guarantee

• How Social Security fits into the calculation

• Why $4 million in a pre-tax 401(k) isn't $4 million of spending power

• RSUs, stock options and company-stock concentration

• Healthcare costs

• Why you should stress-test retirement against bad markets, inflation and longevity

• What to do if you're 5+ years out, 2–3 years out, or already retired How Much Do You Need To Retire …

Your retirement number isn't somebody else's headline. It's the number that supports the life you actually want to live.

Learn more at Freedom Day Wealth Management.

Freedom Day Wealth Management

More Than A Finish Line.

Educational content only. This is not individualized investment or tax advice.