In the latest Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, unpack the political feud between Donald Trump and Elon Musk — and what it signals for markets, sentiment, and investor behavior.

But this episode covers more than just political drama: Ryan and Sonu break down what recent data says about inflation, the labor market, and Federal Reserve policy, while stressing the importance of not overreacting to headlines.

Key Takeaways

• Theater Meets Market Implications
  The Trump-Musk spat included insults, accusations, and the threat of government contract cancellations. Ryan and Sonu dig into how this narrative dominated headlines and its potential impact on investor sentiment.
• Markets Rally Despite the Drama
  Despite political noise, equity markets have remained resilient. The S&P 500 has posted strong returns since April lows, reflecting underlying market strength.
• Economic Data Is Mixed, Not Recessionary
  While headlines emphasize slowing job growth and sticky inflation, Ryan and Sonu stress that the broader picture doesn’t scream recession. Job openings remain high, unemployment is low, and wages continue to rise.
• Fed Remains Cautious
  While job growth is slowing and inflation still sticky, the Fed is likely to keep interest rates paused for the foreseeable future—though a drop in inflation could trigger a reexamination.
• Watch Market Breadth and Participation
  Rather than obsess over megacap tech stocks, the hosts urge listeners to track participation across sectors and in global markets. Broader market strength is a bullish sign that shouldn't be ignored.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #LaborMarket #JobsReport #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EconomicUpdate #FinancialPlanning #WageGrowth #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #StockMarket #MacroTrends

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the recent market rally and the surprisingly solid economic data that continues to confound many bearish predictions. From stock performance and inflation trends to the latest tariff drama, Ryan and Sonu break down what they believe is actually happening beneath the market’s surface.

Key Takeaways

• Markets Continue to Surprise on the Upside
  After a brief dip in April, stocks bounced back strong in May, and with only one down week out of the last six, the S&P 500 is up 1.1% YTD.
• Tariff Drama Continues
  A court ruling struck down President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, though they remain in place for now. Ryan and Sonu dive into the latest drama surrounding tariffs, as well as the TACO trends that’s bolstered many investors.
• Inflation Is Cooling in Key Areas
  Goods prices are down, shelter inflation is slowing, and real-time data suggests CPI and PCE will continue to moderate—supporting the idea that the inflation spike is behind us.
• No Sign of a Recession
  With inflation cooling and the labor market holding strong, odds of recession have retreated from what we saw earlier in the year.
• Financial Media Still Loves the Bear Case
  Ryan and Sonu note how recession headlines haven’t caught up with the data. Fear sells, but facts are more bullish than many want to admit.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #StockMarket #EconomicUpdate #JobsReport #FedPolicy #InflationTrends #RecessionDebate #BullMarket #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #MarketRally #FinancialPodcast #InvestmentInsights #S&P500 #HousingMarket #LaborMarket

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, welcome tech analyst Dan Ives, Managing Director at Wedbush, to discuss the state of AI, the future of autonomous technologies, China-U.S. relations in tech, and investment opportunities beyond the usual headlines.

Broadcasting from Carson's 2025 Spring Partner Summit in Omaha, this conversation blends covers everything from Tesla and Palantir to Microsoft's AI momentum and more.

Key Takeaways

• Tesla Is Not Just a Car Company: Dan emphasized that Tesla should be valued as a disruptive AI and robotics company, not merely an automaker. Autonomous robotics are seen as a core driver of its future valuation.
• AI Party Is Just Getting Started: We're still in the early innings of the AI revolution—around “10:30 p.m.” on an all-night timeline, according to Dan. He likens skeptics to party-poopers who will wish they had joined once the sun comes up.
• China Cannot Be Decoupled: Efforts to cut ties with China in tech manufacturing are unrealistic, says Dan. The U.S. relies heavily on Chinese infrastructure, and disrupting this would have broad economic consequences.
• Apple as the AI Highway: While Apple may have lagged in AI innovation early on, Dan believes it will become the dominant platform for consumer AI applications thanks to its vast device ecosystem and installed base.
• Microsoft's Untapped AI Monetization: Despite a recent lull in stock performance, Dan sees Microsoft as massively underappreciated in its AI capabilities, especially within its enterprise customer base.
• Google (Alphabet) Is Underloved: Alphabet is currently the most underestimated of the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks, particularly due to overstated concerns about search being disrupted by AI.
• Palantir’s Long-Term Role: Dan projects Palantir as a trillion-dollar company in the making, thanks to its growing role in enterprise and sovereign AI applications.
• AI Stocks Beyond the Headlines: Emerging names like Pegasystems, SoundHound, Veronis, and CyberArk are cited as under-the-radar plays in the AI boom, especially in areas like cybersecurity and data infrastructure.
• Autonomous + Robotics = Game Changer: Dan envisions a near-future where humanoid robots under $20,000 become household norms—transforming labor, transportation, and daily life.
• Bitcoin’s Role in Tech: Bitcoin’s institutional adoption is growing, and Dan sees it as a risk-on asset with increasing relevance, especially in a deregulated environment.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Dan:

• LinkedIn: Daniel Ives

• X: @DivesTech

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #DanIves #AIRevolution #TeslaAI #MicrosoftAI #TechInvesting #AutonomousFuture #InnovationEconomy #NVIDIA #Palantir #CryptoAndTech #ChinaUSRelations #BigTech #FutureOfWork #CarsonPartners #FinancialPodcast

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by returning guest Skanda Amarnath, Executive Director of Employ America, as they dive deep into macroeconomic dynamics, market reactions, and policy shifts.

Together, they examine inflation metrics, shifting recession probabilities, the role of tariffs, and the evolving landscape of productivity and AI-related capital investment. Skanda brings grounded clarity on interpreting economic data without succumbing to noise or sensationalism, offering practical insights for advisors and investors alike.

Key Takeaways:

• PCE vs CPI for Tracking Inflation:
  CPI gets more attention due to its simplicity and timing, but the Fed prioritizes PCE. Skanda emphasizes that CPI may be better for gauging immediate market sentiment, while PCE is conceptually stronger for long-term economic trends.
• Macro Noise & Recession Probability:
  Macroeconomic forecasting in today’s environment is fraught with uncertainty. Constant updates from institutions and media (e.g., fluctuating recession odds) highlight the need for discipline in economic modeling and scenario planning.
• Economic Resilience Remains Strong:
  Despite shocks from trade policies and tariffs, data like payroll growth and strong consumer balance sheets suggest the U.S. economy remains fundamentally sound.
• Tariff Impacts on Inflation and Growth:
  Tariffs increase costs that are typically passed through to businesses and consumers; however, much depends on the magnitude. Unilateral trade policies introduce substantial risk and uncertainty for exporters and investors.
• AI-Driven Productivity Is Real — But Vulnerable:
  Capital expenditures in Q1 were strongly influenced by AI infrastructure investments. While this is currently a major tailwind for GDP and productivity, overreliance on one sector (like tech) can create future vulnerabilities if momentum shifts.
• Why Lower Oil Prices Haven’t Translated to Relief at the Pump
  Oil prices are down, but gas prices haven’t followed suit. Sonu dove into that topic in his recent blog: https://www.carsongroup.com/insights/blog/why-lower-oil-prices-havent-translated-to-relief-at-the-pump/

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Skanda:

• X: @IrvingSwisher

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #Macroeconomics #Inflation #CPI #PCE #RecessionWatch #EconomicForecast #AIInvestment #ProductivityGrowth #Tariffs #FinancialMarkets #EmployAmerica #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #SkandaAmarnath

In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, break down the surprising market rally, major developments in the U.S.-China trade situation, and what the latest economic signals mean for investors.

After weeks of tariff tension and fear of global slowdown, calmer heads may finally be prevailing. From trade negotiations to market breadth thrust indicators, and even a glimpse into the Fed’s next move—the guys cover it all.

Key Takeaways:

• Tariff Ceasefire with China:
  A surprise agreement between the U.S. and China rolls back reciprocal tariffs to 10%, averting the feared trade war escalation—though another 20% tariff still remains. The market reacted with a strong rally, showing signs of confidence.
• Trade Talks Reset, Not a Resolution:
  Though framed as a deal by the U.S., China calls it an “economic and trade consultation mechanism.” The agreement includes a 90-day pause and commitments to future negotiations. Non-tariff measures like export restrictions are also being lifted.
• Market Reaction Shows Strength:
  The Dow surged more than 1,000 points, and market internals and technicals suggest bullish momentum and historical patterns point to strong returns ahead.
• Bull Market Signals Everywhere:
  The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have officially entered new bull markets. Patterns like strong monthly returns and recoveries from steep drawdowns historically signal higher markets in the months to come.
• Fed Rate Cuts Delayed by Tariff Uncertainty:
  Despite soft April CPI data and signs that inflation is under control, the Fed remains cautious. Rate cuts that once seemed likely in June or July may now be pushed to September or later.
• U.S. Recession Risk Declining Again:
  After a temporary spike in recession probability post-Liberation Day, analysts are walking those forecasts back as data stabilizes and trade tensions ease.
• Long-Term Strategy Over Headlines:
  Ryan and Sonu emphasize the importance of staying invested through volatility. Market history shows the best days often come right after the worst—don’t miss them by panic selling.

Connect with Ryan:

· LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

· X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

· LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

· X: Sonu Varghese

#FactsVsFeelings #MarketUpdate #TradeWar #Tariffs #ChinaUSRelations #StockMarket #BullMarket #Recession #Inflation #FederalReserve #FinancialPodcast #InvestmentStrategy #Economy #SP500 #MarketInsights #SonuVarghese #RyanDetrick

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the messy, muddy Q1 GDP report and break down why the headline number might be misleading. They also explain the disconnect between public sentiment and actual economic data, touch on Warren Buffett’s retirement announcement, set expectations for the Fed’s next move, and more.

Key Takeaways:

• GDP Looks Weak at First Glance—But Isn't: GDP for Q1 came in negative for the first time in three years, but parsing the data shows there are still plenty of signals—though also plenty of uncertainty.
• A Fond Farewell: Ryan and Sonu reflect on Warren Buffett’s remarkable career after his announcement over the weekend that he’d be stepping away from Berkshire Hathaway.
• Consumer Spending Still Strong: Consumer spending has remained high even amid tariff uncertainty, but auto sales have been a sign of weakness.
• Fed Uncertainty: Though it’s still unclear when or if the Fed might cut rates, we should get some clarity this week.
• Earnings Beat Expectations: Q1 earnings came in ahead of expectations, buoying the market during an uncertain time.
• Strong Stocks: The market ended April and opened May with a nine-day winning streak, a sign of resilience amid tariff uncertainty.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#FactsVsFeelings #GDPGrowth #ConsumerSpending #ImmigrationEconomics #MarketOutlook #FedPolicy #StockMarketUpdate #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #EconomicReality #RecessionMyth #StagflationDebunked

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dissect the market’s strong rally amid tariff turmoil and examine whether policy pullbacks from Washington are signaling a win for the stock market.

The duo also dives into technical indicators, sentiment extremes, earnings expectations, and the broader economic implications of continued trade tensions with China. Plus, a golden discussion — literally — about gold’s recent surge and what it might mean for investors.

Key Takeaways:

• Markets vs. Tariffs
• Policy Sensitivity
• Market Breadth & Technicals
• Near Bear Markets
• Trade Impact Lag
• Fed & Policy Outlook
• Earnings Expectations
• Sentiment Extremes
• Gold Surge

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
• X: Ryan Detrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
• X: Sonu Varghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

#StockMarket #Tariffs #MarketUpdate #EconomicOutlook #InvestorSentiment #S&P500 #Gold #MarketRally #FederalReserve #EarningsSeason #FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #FinancialPodcast

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, are joined by Cathie Wood of Ark Invest to unpack the state of innovation in finance, the market’s reaction to tariffs, and the evolving role of AI, Bitcoin, and government in shaping the future economy.

Together, they explore whether we are entering a recession or exiting one, and how long-term investors can cut through short-term volatility. Cathie also shares her thoughts on manufacturing reshoring, AI’s role in diagnostics and automation, OpenAI’s dominance, and why Bitcoin might just be getting started.

Key Takeaways:

• Market headwinds are turning into tailwinds
• Risk of a recession is on the rise
• Tariff chaos could be offset some by tax cuts and deregulation
• AI will catalyze every sector
• Bitcoin and gold can be hedges against market volatility, but there’s still uncertainty
• Manufacturing is coming back to the U.S., but with more automation
• The government’s role in innovation is evolving as the private sector progresses

Connect with Cathie:

• X: @cathiedwood

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghe

Relevant Hashtags:

#CathieWood #ARKInvest #Bitcoin #AI #Tariffs #Innovation #StockMarket #Recession #FactsVsFeelings #TechnologyInvesting #CarsonGroup #FinancialPodcast #OpenAI #Automation #EconomicOutlook #RollingRecession #Reshoring #DigitalAssets #Investing