2025 kept investors off balance, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group turned to Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, to make sense of what actually drove the year. They dig into the gap between perception and reality on market breadth, why speculative pockets unraveled even as leadership widened, and how steady rate cuts, shifting Fed signals, and a softer labor backdrop shaped sentiment. Art also brings decades of perspective on small caps, mid caps, financials, healthcare, and the global forces that may matter most as investors position for 2026.

Art Hogan, nor B. Riley Wealth Management, are affiliated with CWM, LLC.

Key Takeaways:

• Market leadership broadened: More sectors and stocks contributed to gains than investors realized

• Speculative areas reset: High-risk themes sold off sharply despite broader market strength

• Fed signals stayed mixed: Cuts continued while disagreements inside the committee grew

• Labor data softened: Slower hiring and revisions added pressure beneath the surface

• Cyclicals built momentum: Financials, healthcare, industrials, and global markets carried meaningful strength

Jump to:

0:00 — Setting the Stage for 2025

5:20 — Breadth, Sentiment, and Concentration Fears

9:30 — Speculative Shakeout and AI Valuations

13:45 — Pullbacks, Psychology, and Market Stats

17:15 — The Everything Rally in Context

20:40 — Small Caps, Transports, and Quality Leadership

34:30 — Fed Cuts, Labor Signals, and the 2026 Outlook

Connect with Art

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/arthogan/

• X: https://x.com/ArthurHoganIII

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

A rare split is opening inside the Federal Reserve. Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Wealth, dig into what that tension really means as growth projections move higher and rate cuts keep coming. They break down the widening gap between market expectations and the Fed’s own outlook, the mixed signals coming from the latest dot plot, and what dissenting votes reveal about how policymakers are reading inflation and a softening labor market. At the same time, they look to the areas gaining strength, including cyclicals, global markets, commodities and the latest AI rotation, to understand how a divided Fed is shaping positioning as investors look ahead to 2026.

Key Takeaways:

• The Fed is diverging internally: The dot plots and dissents show widening disagreement on how aggressively to cut

• Markets are pricing a different path: Traders expect more easing than the Fed, especially beyond 2026

• Growth projections are rising: The Fed now sees stronger 2025–2026 GDP despite ongoing cuts

• Labor-market signals are weakening: Falling quits and slowing hiring increase pressure on policymakers

• Cyclical strength continues: Industrials, materials, and developed international markets are pushing the rally forward

Jump to:

0:00 - Cold Open, Holidays, And Setup

2:45 - AI Leadership Rotates And Market Breadth

8:50 - Cyclicals Lead, Global Rally Builds

14:40 - Europe, Developed Markets, And Industrials

20:55 - IPOs, Sentiment, And Bull Market Signals

27:00 - The Fed Cuts: Dots, Dissent, And Markets

35:20 -Neutral Rate, Long-Run Inflation, And 2026

41:50 - Press Conference Takeaways And Labor Risks

48:10 - Gold Breakout And Commodities Pulse

53:30 - Labor Market: JOLTS, Quits, And Wages

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese dig into the market’s latest shift toward a potential economic reacceleration, looking at rising global yields, what the renewed steepening of the yield curve may signal, and how broadening market leadership is shaping their outlook. They go through the rebound in tech, the breakout in commodities, stubborn inflation pressures, and the mixed but still-stable labor market. With the Fed’s next move approaching, Ryan and Sonu discuss what policymakers may be forced to confront as growth picks up and investors try to position through the final weeks of the year.

Key Takeaways:

• Global yields are climbing: The move appears driven more by improving growth expectations than by renewed inflation fears.

• The yield curve is steepening: Long-term rates are rising faster than short-term ones, signaling firmer economic momentum.

• Market leadership is broadening: Tech is rebounding while financials, industrials, and small caps are showing notable strength.

• Commodities are breaking out: A wide range of materials is moving higher, hinting at early reflation even without oil participating.

• Inflation is easing but still sticky: Price pressures remain above the Fed’s comfort zone as it prepares for additional rate cuts.

Jump to:

0:00 – Reacceleration & Markets Setup

4:55 – Global Yields, Carry Trade & Yield Curve Shifts

9:13 – Bear vs Bull Steepener Explained

16:40 – Tech’s Streak, Market Breadth & Sector Rotation

24:00 – Commodities Breakout & Late-Cycle Signals

32:20 – Inflation pressures: PCE, Services & Risks

38:30 – Fed Cuts, Labor Market Trends & Income Strength

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @SonuVarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dive into the sharp late-November market swings, why December historically favors gains, and how shifting Fed expectations have driven sentiment. They break down sector rotation, the surprising divergence between crypto and junk tech, the return of market breadth, and the growing possibility of reflationary growth into 2026. The conversation also covers rising unemployment data, an increasingly divided Fed, and how the accelerating AI investment race may continue fueling key parts of the market.

Key Takeaways

• Market Breadth Expansion: The advance-decline line hitting new highs shows the rally is widening beyond just mega-cap tech.
• Sector Rotation Strength: Technology lagged in November while healthcare, materials, staples, and financials helped offset the pullback—validating diversified positioning.
• Fed Rate-Cut Expectations Whipsawed: Odds of a December cut plunged below 30% before surging back above 80% due to rising unemployment, dovish Fed commentary, and Beige Book labor softness.
• Reflationary Growth View for 2026: Strong global commodities, resilient demand, and expected Fed easing support the case for reflation rather than recession.
• Crypto Decouples from Junk Tech: Bitcoin fell sharply while non-profitable tech surged, breaking a correlation that typically signals risk-on/off behavior.
• AI Spending Cycle Accelerates: Competition among AI leaders is driving massive capital spending—benefiting chipmakers, data centers, and related sectors.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags

#FactsVsFeelings #CarsonGroup #MarketOutlook #FedPolicy #Reflation #InvestmentStrategy #Macroeconomics #FinancialMarkets #YearEndRally

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, hosts Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, sit down with Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, to break down the current cyclical and secular bull markets, how AI compares to past transformative periods, what rising rates have meant for valuations, and why international equities are becoming more attractive. They also touch on the role of gold and Bitcoin, how to think about barbell strategies, and what history teaches about market narratives.

Key Takeaways

• Market Setup: Today’s environment features a cyclical bull market on top of a long-running secular bull market, similar to past periods like 1994 and the late 1990s.
• Interest Rates & Valuations: The 2022 market drop came largely from PE compression as rates jumped from near zero to 5%, while earnings actually grew.
• Historical Parallels: Timmer highlights similarities between today and both the late 1960s (loose fiscal policy, sticky inflation) and late 1990s (tech-driven excitement).
• Barbell Approach: A mix of mega-cap leaders and undervalued international equities may help manage concentration risk, especially as Europe and Japan boost payouts and trade at lower valuations.
• Gold & Bitcoin: Timmer views both as scarce, diversifying assets that hedge against periods when bonds may struggle, especially in potential fiscal-dominance environments.
• Small Caps vs. Large Caps: Small caps show mixed performance due to both traditional domestic exposure and speculative, unprofitable tech tied to AI.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Connect with Jurrien Timmer:

• LinkedIn: Jurrien Timmer

• X: @TimmerFidelity

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Disclosure: Jurrien Timmer is not affiliated with CWM, LLC. Opinions expressed by our guests may not be representative of CWM, LLC.

Hashtags

#FactsVsFeelings #MarketInsights #InvestingPodcast #MacroOutlook #GlobalMarkets #AssetAllocation #CarsonGroup

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the surge in market volatility and what they believe is truly behind it. They explore shifting rate-cut expectations from the Fed, how mixed economic data is shaping the outlook, and why recent remarks from Fed officials have rattled markets. Ryan and Sonu also break down the sharp risk-off moves in crypto, the resilience of sectors like healthcare and commodities, and more.

Key Takeaways

• Fed Tone Shift: Fed officials struck a more cautious tone after their October meeting, sharply lowering expectations for a December rate cut and contributing to market weakness.
• Labor Data Uncertainty: With government shutdown-related data gaps, the Fed is flying partially blind, making upcoming payroll numbers pivotal in determining whether cuts resume.
• Crypto as Risk-Off Signal: Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen steep declines since last month, acting as a clear risk-off indicator and spilling into tech-adjacent equities.
• Sector Divergence: Healthcare (especially biotech), utilities, and value stocks have held up better during the pullback, while small-cap growth and speculative tech have lagged sharply.
• Commodities Showing Strength: Despite volatility, key commodities like copper, natural gas, silver, and jet fuel are meaningfully higher year-to-date—signs that global activity is holding up better than headlines suggest.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags

#FactsVsFeelings #MarketVolatility #FederalReserve #MacroPodcast #InvestingInsights #MarketOutlook #CarsonGroup

In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss how markets are responding to the government’s impending reopening, improving earnings, and shifting political dynamics. They unpack why consumer sentiment remains low despite strong market and economic data, explore the reality behind so-called “K-shaped” growth, and explain why they still see powerful tailwinds for investors heading into 2026.

Key Takeaways

• Government Reopening & Market Optimism: Ryan and Sonu expect the government to fully reopen within a week, though they highlight that split power in Congress has often aligned with positive stock performance.
• Political Shifts & Gridlock Effect: Off-year elections showed strong results for Democrats, setting up a potential split Congress—an outcome that markets have rewarded in past cycles due to reduced legislative volatility.
• Consumer Sentiment vs. Market Reality: Confidence levels remain near historic lows even as inflation cools and the job market holds steady. The hosts argue that perception, not data, is fueling pessimism.
• Earnings Strength & Global Tailwinds: S&P 500 earnings growth surged from 7.9% to 13%, with companies generating more than half their revenue abroad leading the way—evidence that global demand continues to support U.S. markets.
• Debunking the “K-Shaped Economy” Narrative: Sonu breaks down why claims of widening inequality are overstated, emphasizing that spending patterns and income distribution remain consistent with long-term trends.
• Labor Market Stability: Despite attention-grabbing layoff headlines, jobless claims and hiring plans show a resilient labor market, reinforcing the broader theme of economic strength beneath the noise.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags

#FactsVsFeelings #MarketOutlook #InvestingInsights #EconomicUpdate #StockMarket #FinancialPlanning #CarsonGroup

In the latest episode of Facts vs. Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, discuss the powerful role of momentum in today’s markets and what investors should expect heading into year-end. They examine how the S&P 500’s impressive rally fits into historical context, why tech leadership remains dominant, and how market breadth and global participation are evolving. The conversation also explores the impact of Federal Reserve policy shifts, cooling trade tensions, and the surprising resilience of the U.S. economy.

Key Takeaways

• Historic Market Strength: The S&P 500 has gained nearly 23% over the past six months, placing this move in the top 4% of all six-month returns. History shows that strong momentum often leads to continued upside in the following year.
• Tech-Driven Leadership: The recent rally has been powered largely by technology. The Magnificent Seven continue to dominate, with the S&P 500 Technology Index up 44% over six months.
• Global Momentum: It’s not just the U.S.—developed and emerging markets are rallying too. South Korea, Taiwan, and China are leading EM gains, while countries like South Africa, Mexico, and Japan also show strong performance.
• Economic Resilience: Despite talk of a “K-shaped” economy, U.S. GDP growth remains near 2%. Earnings are rising across sectors, with 80% of companies beating on both revenue and profits.
• Trade Tensions Easing: The U.S.–China trade war appears to be cooling, with both sides de-escalating tariffs and trade restrictions. China is resuming soybean purchases and suspending certain export controls, while the U.S. has paused new restrictions—reducing a major geopolitical headwind.
• Fed’s Delicate Balance: The Federal Reserve cut rates again, bringing total cuts to 150 basis points since the cycle’s peak. While inflation remains a concern for some members, Powell’s comments suggested a dovish tone, emphasizing that inflation pressures are manageable and economic momentum remains intact.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

Hashtags

#FactsVsFeelings #MarketMomentum #RyanDetrick #SonuVarghese #CarsonGroup #InvestingInsights #StockMarket #EconomicOutlook #FederalReserve #GlobalMarkets