2025 kept investors off balance, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group turned to Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, to make sense of what actually drove the year. They dig into the gap between perception and reality on market breadth, why speculative pockets unraveled even as leadership widened, and how steady rate cuts, shifting Fed signals, and a softer labor backdrop shaped sentiment. Art also brings decades of perspective on small caps, mid caps, financials, healthcare, and the global forces that may matter most as investors position for 2026.

Art Hogan, nor B. Riley Wealth Management, are affiliated with CWM, LLC.

Key Takeaways:

• Market leadership broadened: More sectors and stocks contributed to gains than investors realized

• Speculative areas reset: High-risk themes sold off sharply despite broader market strength

• Fed signals stayed mixed: Cuts continued while disagreements inside the committee grew

• Labor data softened: Slower hiring and revisions added pressure beneath the surface

• Cyclicals built momentum: Financials, healthcare, industrials, and global markets carried meaningful strength

Jump to:

0:00 — Setting the Stage for 2025

5:20 — Breadth, Sentiment, and Concentration Fears

9:30 — Speculative Shakeout and AI Valuations

13:45 — Pullbacks, Psychology, and Market Stats

17:15 — The Everything Rally in Context

20:40 — Small Caps, Transports, and Quality Leadership

34:30 — Fed Cuts, Labor Signals, and the 2026 Outlook

Connect with Art

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/arthogan/

• X: https://x.com/ArthurHoganIII

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

A rare split is opening inside the Federal Reserve. Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, and Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Wealth, dig into what that tension really means as growth projections move higher and rate cuts keep coming. They break down the widening gap between market expectations and the Fed’s own outlook, the mixed signals coming from the latest dot plot, and what dissenting votes reveal about how policymakers are reading inflation and a softening labor market. At the same time, they look to the areas gaining strength, including cyclicals, global markets, commodities and the latest AI rotation, to understand how a divided Fed is shaping positioning as investors look ahead to 2026.

Key Takeaways:

• The Fed is diverging internally: The dot plots and dissents show widening disagreement on how aggressively to cut

• Markets are pricing a different path: Traders expect more easing than the Fed, especially beyond 2026

• Growth projections are rising: The Fed now sees stronger 2025–2026 GDP despite ongoing cuts

• Labor-market signals are weakening: Falling quits and slowing hiring increase pressure on policymakers

• Cyclical strength continues: Industrials, materials, and developed international markets are pushing the rally forward

Jump to:

0:00 - Cold Open, Holidays, And Setup

2:45 - AI Leadership Rotates And Market Breadth

8:50 - Cyclicals Lead, Global Rally Builds

14:40 - Europe, Developed Markets, And Industrials

20:55 - IPOs, Sentiment, And Bull Market Signals

27:00 - The Fed Cuts: Dots, Dissent, And Markets

35:20 -Neutral Rate, Long-Run Inflation, And 2026

41:50 - Press Conference Takeaways And Labor Risks

48:10 - Gold Breakout And Commodities Pulse

53:30 - Labor Market: JOLTS, Quits, And Wages

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryandetrick/

• X: https://x.com/RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sonu-varghese-phd/

• X: https://x.com/sonusvarghese?lang=en

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

In this week’s episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese dig into the market’s latest shift toward a potential economic reacceleration, looking at rising global yields, what the renewed steepening of the yield curve may signal, and how broadening market leadership is shaping their outlook. They go through the rebound in tech, the breakout in commodities, stubborn inflation pressures, and the mixed but still-stable labor market. With the Fed’s next move approaching, Ryan and Sonu discuss what policymakers may be forced to confront as growth picks up and investors try to position through the final weeks of the year.

Key Takeaways:

• Global yields are climbing: The move appears driven more by improving growth expectations than by renewed inflation fears.

• The yield curve is steepening: Long-term rates are rising faster than short-term ones, signaling firmer economic momentum.

• Market leadership is broadening: Tech is rebounding while financials, industrials, and small caps are showing notable strength.

• Commodities are breaking out: A wide range of materials is moving higher, hinting at early reflation even without oil participating.

• Inflation is easing but still sticky: Price pressures remain above the Fed’s comfort zone as it prepares for additional rate cuts.

Jump to:

0:00 – Reacceleration & Markets Setup

4:55 – Global Yields, Carry Trade & Yield Curve Shifts

9:13 – Bear vs Bull Steepener Explained

16:40 – Tech’s Streak, Market Breadth & Sector Rotation

24:00 – Commodities Breakout & Late-Cycle Signals

32:20 – Inflation pressures: PCE, Services & Risks

38:30 – Fed Cuts, Labor Market Trends & Income Strength

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @RyanDetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @SonuVarghese

Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com