『Exponential Learning』のカバーアート

Exponential Learning

Exponential Learning

著者: The Team
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Humans can absorb multiples more audio content than written. To that end, this podcast is for absorbing as much intelligence as possible as the catch-all for interesting articles, research reports, or podcast summaries. I hope you enjoy the knowledge as much as we do.© 2026 The Team 個人ファイナンス 個人的成功 経済学 自己啓発
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  • Private Flight or Cell Phones? The Unit Economics of AI
    2026/10/19
    Trevor Noren (Sage Road Research) and Apollo ask the demand-side question: the marginal cost of compute exceeds its marginal benefit, corporate token spending is slowing, and hyperscaler ROIC has halved from ~38% to ~20%. We cover the prisoner's dilemma of the buildout, the private-flight-vs-cell-phones analogy for agentic AI, the fiber-optic precedent — and why it all still points to owning the tollbooth.
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    14 分
  • What Has to Go Right: The Math Behind AI's Trillion-Dollar Bet
    2026/10/19
    Eric Flaningam (Timeless) published the most rigorous bull-case math on AI cap ex: clouds need ~$600B in third-party AI revenue by late 2027 and $1T+ by 2028 at 35% margins to earn their cost of capital. We steelman the piece — the depreciation treadmill, the three conditions (frontier breakthroughs, faster diffusion, surviving margins), and the 'apps decide what runs short' thesis — then deliver our conclusion: own the tollbooth, rent the factory.
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    14 分
  • The Data Centre Is a Factory
    2026/10/19
    Hosking Partners' Q3 2026 letter, via MastersInvest: a London value manager beat global markets by 6.3% YTD owning almost none of the AI winners — and its diagnosis of the AI buildout is the sharpest we've read. Cap ex doubled to T (a railway-boom share of GDP); 00B+ of IG debt issued in 2026 alone, .1T more by 2030; credit investors now run the industry through SPVs and off-balance-sheet leases while token prices fall. The core claim: the data centre is a factory, compute is a commodity — load-the-plant economics will push token pricing toward marginal cost, the way solar was commoditized (and China-dominated). The .5T OpenAI/Anthropic flotations are the exam. Plus: how they won without AI (Greek refiners, Norwegian tankers +440% since 2017, Saga's 25% ROIC, 80 Japanese small caps), the honest 260bp cost of missing mega-cap tech, a full steelman of the other side, and why the factory thesis actually CONFIRMS the energized-land view — factories commoditize, tollbooths don't.
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    15 分
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