Everything We Know About Investor Risk Is Wrong - Arun Muralidhar
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Everything We Know About Investor Risk Is Wrong - Arun Muralidhar
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Most of what we’re taught about investor behaviour is wrong, according to Arun Muralidhar.
In the latest Capital Horizons episode, Arun Muralidhar (founder of MCube Technologies, former World Bank pension fund manager) shares multi-country survey evidence covering ~40% of the world’s population: fewer than 5% of people match the classic “risk-averse” assumptions of expected utility theory - and almost none fit Kahneman & Tversky’s prospect theory either.
Arun believes that the practical consequences are huge: $5 trillion has poured into US target-date funds (and similar products are being pushed globally by the OECD and others) on the untested idea that people automatically become more risk-averse with age. They don’t. Preferences change with life events, and the products ignore actual goals such as target retirement income.
Arun and I dig into:
• Why liability-centric, dynamic approaches beat static glide paths
• How institutional investors (public pensions, endowments) often do the opposite of what the textbooks prescribe
• What a better default pension solution would look like
Essential viewing for anyone designing, managing, regulating, or investing in retirement products.
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