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To spend $120k a year from age 60, you need about $3m to never touch your capital, or $2.1m if you plan to run it down to zero by 90. Most super calculators can't tell you whether you're on track, because they ignore investments held outside super, especially geared property, and they don't handle retiring before 60. In this episode, I walk through a set of tables you can use to add up your super, ETFs, and investment property and see where you'll land. I also cover how to choose between a perpetual and a depleting portfolio, why $1 contributed to super grows to nearly $47 compared with $21 outside it, and what to do if you're well behind or well ahead of your target. The tables and worked examples are on the blog, linked above.

00:00 Introduction and podcast ratings update
02:58 Why super calculators don't tell you if you're on track
04:12 The numbers: $2.1m depleting vs $3m perpetual
06:28 The early retirement problem: accessing super before 60
07:45 The wealth equation and why time matters most
08:07 Perpetual vs depleting portfolio: which to choose
11:31 Return assumptions and sequencing risk
12:30 Why life expectancy favours a perpetual portfolio
14:16 Modelling assumptions: returns, inflation and tax
17:14 Selling assets at retirement and the cost base assumption
19:30 How to use the tables
22:06 Investing inside vs outside super: $47 vs $21
23:07 Table 7: retiring before 60
24:58 Worked example: couple aged 40 with super and ETFs
26:04 Worked example: geared property investors aged 35
28:33 Table 8: spending more than $120,000 a year
29:49 What to do if you're materially behind target
32:19 What to do if you're materially ahead of target
33:57 Caveats and limitations of the modelling

Related episodes:

• Episode 402 (March 2026): on spending more today, or in the healthy years of retirement, once you're well on track. Stuart references this episode directly at 32:19.
• The super report episode (July 2026): on choosing the right super fund. Stuart references this at 25:46.

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Important

This podcast provides general information about finance, tax and credit. It doesn't take into account your specific objectives, financial situation or needs, so you need to assess whether it's relevant to your circumstances before acting on it. If you're not sure, speak to a licensed, trustworthy professional.