Ep.2 From trade war to kinetic war? Understanding the new geopolitical dynamics with Michael Every.
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Ep.2 From trade war to kinetic war? Understanding the new geopolitical dynamics with Michael Every.
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Just in time for "Liberation Day" and Donald Trump's reciprocal tarifs, we receive Michael Every, global strategist at Rabobank for this second episode of The Next Decade.
With Michael, we dive into the complexities of geopolitical analysis, focusing on the evolving nature of grand strategy in a contested world.
We discuss the implications of GDP beyond mere numbers by asking : "What is GDP for?" as well as the impact of political leadership on national strategy, and the historical shifts in global power dynamics.
The conversation also touches on the responses of second-tier powers like Canada and Europe to US policies, how national security concerns now trump (pun intented) mere economic policy.
We also ask : "What is China's grand strategy?"
Lastly, Michael emphasizes the importance of understanding historical context and preparing for geopolitical changes in an increasingly uncertain world.
A few takeaways :
The middle class's radicalization can lead to significant political shifts.
Understanding GDP's purpose is crucial for effective national strategy.
Grand strategy encompasses national interests beyond economic metrics.
Political leadership significantly influences a country's strategic direction.
The US is navigating a complex global landscape with rising powers like China.
Historical events shape current geopolitical dynamics and strategies.
Nationalism is resurging, impacting international relations and alliances.
Canada and Europe must adapt to a changing US foreign policy.
The state may increasingly dictate economic priorities for national security.
China's grand strategy aims to expand its global influence and manufacturing dominance.
00:00 Introduction to Geopolitical Dynamics
04:28 Understanding Grand Macro Strategy
07:34 The Role of GDP in National Security
10:28 The Impact of Political Leadership on Strategy
13:32 Shifts in American Foreign Policy
16:25 The Evolving Global Landscape
19:16 Canada and Europe's Response to US Policy
22:11 The Future of State and Market Relations
31:40 Navigating North American Supply Chains
32:30 Understanding China's Grand Strategy
35:41 China's Export Efficiency and Global Impact
37:19 China's Response to US Tariffs
40:47 Potential Scenarios: Trade War to Kinetic Conflict
42:23 The Future of Second Tier Powers
50:03 Preparing for Macro Changes: The Average Person's Role
57:23 The Importance of Geopolitical Analysis