The Hinrich Foundation Trade Book Talk hosted a discussion with Jonathan Saunders, author of Empires of Trade: The Ruthless Battle for Globe. In conversation with moderator and Trade Education Program Director Alex Boome, Saunders examines trade not as a neutral exchange of goods, but as a persistent arena of strategic global competition.

Saunders contrasts simple international trade with the complex web of modern globalization, arguing that a decades-long, relentless pursuit of corporate efficiency stripped supply chains of crucial redundancies. When recent macro-shocks hit, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and semiconductor shortages, this fragile, hyper-interconnected system fractured. Drawing deep historical parallels, Saunders compares historical mercantilist battles over commodities like nutmeg to today's aggressive struggles for dominance over advanced technologies and supply routes.

To navigate this volatility, Saunders advises businesses to prioritize situational awareness and resilience by building contractual redundancies and cultivating backup supply networks. Looking forward, he outlines four potential trajectories for global commerce: a fractured "New Cold War," a volatile but sustained period of "Managed Competition," a devastating "Collapse of Globalization," or an optimistic, decentralized, and technology-driven "Globalization 2.0".

Tune into the Hinrich Foundation’s podcast series for insights on international trade.