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  • Doug Casey: "Trump Will Not Fully Serve Out His Term"

    Doug Casey: "Trump Will Not Fully Serve Out His Term"
    2026/07/01
    Doug Casey on oil's new floor, the $1.4 billion grift, and why the next president will make Trump look like a moderate Doug made a call on this week's episode that stopped me mid-conversation: he's betting Trump resigns before 2028. Not impeachment. Not the 25th Amendment. Resignation — dressed up, in Doug's telling, with "some nonsensical reason why. Well, time for Vance to get groomed or whatever." And he didn't stop there: "I'd also make book that Melania is going to divorce him." His suspicion? The Melania coin was part of the alimony settlement. You can dismiss that as Doug being Doug. But listen to the whole episode and the logic hangs together. Here's the chain. The money trail Trump's latest financial disclosure shows $1.4 billion in crypto earnings while in office. The Trump meme coin alone brought in $635 million. (Melania's coin managed about $6 million — which tells you something about the settlement theory.) Doug's read: "Those coins serve absolutely zero useful purpose. It's like giving somebody a book contract or a speaking fee to pass money to them. It's basically a grift." And that money has a job to do. "He'll need that money to mount a proper legal defense after he's out of office." A president facing legal exposure the moment he leaves power, sitting on a billion-plus war chest, in years Doug expects to get "so wild and wooly" that walking away becomes the smart trade — that's the resignation bet. Mussolini economics Doug's larger frame is that the grift isn't a side show — it's the system now. "He really is a modern-day reincarnation of Mussolini. His economic policies are actually identical to those of Benito Mussolini" — the US government buying stakes in companies on the open market, ten of them at this point, with the family positioned ahead of the deals. Take the Kazakhstan tungsten arrangement: Trump's sons get in, then the US government invests heavily. Millions of Americans look at that and call it capitalism. Doug's correction: "It's actually fascism at work, in the classic Mussolini definition of the word." And every time Trump is associated with free markets, he delegitimizes them a little more. What comes next is worse Mamdani won in New York and is now using his star power to elevate three more like-minded candidates into Congress. Doug isn't mincing words: "They're actual real communists that wanna overturn the entire nature of US life." Left and right, Americans are being radicalized against the system itself. Sanders, Obama, "drain the swamp," Mamdani — every one of those was a vote to tear something down. And the anger is monetary at its root, even if almost nobody can name it. M2 money supply surged $247 billion in May — the largest monthly jump since May 2021, when Washington was mailing checks to everyone with a pulse. We now sit $1.3 trillion above the peak of that printing orgy. That's what's laying waste to the average American's standard of living. They can't make ends meet, they can't explain why, and so they reach for "billionaires shouldn't exist." Doug's punchline on where the numbers go from here: "Trump is gonna have to ask what comes beyond a trillion. He doesn't know it, but it's a quadrillion. So that number is the next one we're gonna start hearing about." "It's all like a gambler on tilt at this point." The one trade hiding in all of this Amid the doom, Doug laid out the most concrete investment case he's made in months. The Hormuz standoff isn't getting resolved. Even under the best scenario, flows through the Strait will be controlled by Iran and its allies — restricted flows are the new baseline. Doug's conclusion: "Oil has reached a new base level at, let's say, $65 to $70 at a minimum." Now the anomaly: "During the last real oil bubble, which was in 1980, oil stocks were 20% of the S&P 500. Now they're 4%" — even though oil matters more to the world economy than ever. Some of these companies are yielding up to 10% in current dividends. "They're cheap, they're paying big dividends, nobody wants them, and it's one of the only parts of the financial world that's actually underpriced." Everyone's chasing semiconductors and AI. The energy that powers all of it trades like an afterthought. That's the setup Doug lives for. Also in this episode Trump's feud with Meloni at the G7 (and what the Italian press called him afterward), the $16 million Reflecting Pool fixation, the CPS visit to the Buttigieg household and why child protective agencies should terrify every parent in America, and whether there will even be an election in 2028. Doug: "Who knows what could happen between now and then where we could have a national emergency and the election is put off — and that's really the end of the Republic of America." On Friday: Doug's take on the recent Supreme Court rulings, his thoughts on Peter Thiel's Zero to One, and your questions. Subscribers can submit via the "Ask Doug a Question" link at the top of the Substack. One more ...
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    38 分
  • "Dangerous and Capable of Almost Any Kind of Stupidity" — Doug Casey on America at 250

    "Dangerous and Capable of Almost Any Kind of Stupidity" — Doug Casey on America at 250
    2026/07/03

    Find us at https://www.CrisisInvesting.com

    1976 vs Today: Patriotism, Demographics, Tech, and Subscriber Q&A on Capital Controls, Uranium, Cuba, and Milei

    On the July 3 observed July 4 holiday, Matt and Doug compare America's 1976 Bicentennial mood with today, citing major shifts in demographics, a larger population, widening class divides, the decline of manufacturing, and especially computerization and heavy screen time, alongside reduced patriotism and optimism and more political polarization. They discuss changing race relations and immigration, then pivot to subscriber Q&A about Crisis Investing after Lau Veges' departure, risks of foreign bank accounts amid potential capital controls, gold-backed "goldbacks," whether a US government could compel the Sprott Uranium Trust to sell uranium, possible investment opportunities in a collapsing Cuba, views on the death penalty and abortion, where "renaissance men" are most common, why countries splitting can be beneficial, concerns about Javier Milei's pro-Israel actions and immigration stance, and why they won't track panelists' personal trades from their experts roundtables.

    00:00 1976 vs Today
    02:06 Population and Lifestyle Shifts
    04:09 Middle Class Squeeze
    05:50 Computers Change Everything
    07:20 Immigration and Identity
    11:11 Patriotism and Politics
    14:13 Subscriber Q and A Begins
    17:52 Foreign Accounts and Controls
    20:52 Goldbacks and Gold Money
    24:29 Uranium Trust and State Power
    29:55 Cuba Collapse and Opportunities
    33:02 Cuba Property Outlook
    34:19 Death Penalty Rethink
    36:21 Abortion Family Choice
    40:21 Renaissance Men Today
    44:30 When Countries Split
    47:15 Milei Zionism Concerns
    57:46 Roundtable Stock Followups
    01:01:49 Holiday Signoff
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    1 時間 3 分
  • Looming Economic Cataclysm

    Looming Economic Cataclysm
    2026/07/08

    Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

    The hosts discuss Trump saying an Iran MOU is "over" after reported attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz area, a major U.S. strike, and Iranian retaliation against U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, while noting uncertainty about attribution. They argue markets appear complacent despite the potential for a severe real-economy shock from disrupted oil flows, SPR drawdowns, and possible wider chokepoint closures (Hormuz, Bab el-Mandab). The conversation covers Iran's internal backlash after Khamenei's death and the likelihood of escalation, plus spillover risks from Russia-Ukraine strikes on refining assets and Europe's militarization. Doug outlines positioning: long oil via spreads and producers, long grains and gold miners, and considering bearish semiconductor hedges, while warning of bubble valuations and broader systemic financial risks.

    00:00 Iran Deal Collapses

    01:58 Calm Before Oil Shock

    05:06 Oil and Grain Trades

    10:02 Hormuz War Scenarios

    12:32 Iranian Public Backlash

    16:21 Israel and Turkey Risks

    19:56 Financial Domino Effects

    22:13 Europe Russia Escalation

    25:17 Trump Megalomania Talk

    29:21 How to Hedge Now

    30:36 Bubble Shorts Semis SpaceX

    35:18 Market Vibe and Indicators

    40:13 World War III Fears

    42:05 Wrap Up and Next Episode
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    43 分
  • Trump's Price Tag

    Trump's Price Tag
    2026/07/17

    Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

    Matt and Doug discuss a proposed Trump "$1 gold coin," calling it inappropriate for a sitting president and a sign of "end-stage empire," comparing it to Rome's shift to leaders' faces on coinage. They also cover a plan to sell early access to Trump's Truth Social posts for $100,000/month amid allegations of stock front-running, plus a $500,000-entry private D.C. club tied to Trump's son as legalized influence peddling. The conversation shifts to escalating U.S.-Iran conflict risks, possible boots-on-the-ground odds, Israel's role, parallels to Iraq/WMD claims, and the financial strain of missile-heavy warfare. They argue oil and gold should rise, criticize claims about U.S. gold reserves, note European sentiment turning against the U.S., discuss surveillance "Flock" cameras, disappointment over lack of major prosecutions, market confusion, and potential opportunities in undervalued oil and dividend-paying gold stocks.

    00:00 Trump Coin Controversy 04:28 Truth Social Paywall Scheme

    06:24 Iran War Fears 08:48 Europe Turns On America

    10:11 War Costs And Strategy

    13:41 Gold Audit Doubts

    15:39 Market Bubbles And Korea

    19:28 Inflation Reality Check

    21:19 Surveillance Camera State

    23:03 No Accountability And Elections

    27:13 Influence Peddling Club

    29:14 Ukraine War Oil Fallout

    32:07 Jones Act And Congress

    33:46 Lindsey Graham Legacy

    37:49 Betting On What Happens Next

    40:10 Wrap Up And Sign Off
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    40 分
  • The Saudi Nuke Deal, Section 219, and the "Golden Age"

    The Saudi Nuke Deal, Section 219, and the "Golden Age"
    2026/07/24

    Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

    Doug and Matt discuss headlines and subscriber questions, starting with a survey claiming 30% of Americans admit to shoplifting and what that says about social trust, morality, and societal decline. They talk about New York's worsening conditions, Trump's announced Saudi nuclear deal and subsequent reversal, and a House-passed NDAA provision (Section 219) calling for deeper US-Israel military/intelligence integration, which they argue signals late-stage empire and foreign influence via AIPAC. They critique Trump's "golden age" claims, note rising yields and escalating Middle East and Ukraine-Russia risks, and comment on Trump family wealth. Q&A topics include Doug's favorite opera (Wagner, Gershwin), sci-fi recommendations (golden-age authors; The Diamond Age), whether digital assets/stablecoins can prolong the debt cycle, a film about vigilantism and mass migration, coal markets and coal's importance, Israel's actions and Gaza/Lebanon, and the possibility of deflation alongside inflation using entropy concepts.

    00:00 Shoplifting Shock Stat

    01:17 Thieves and Morality

    03:58 Luxury Beliefs Debate

    04:57 New York Backslide

    06:53 Saudi Nuclear Deal

    10:05 Israel Military Merger

    14:17 America as an Idea

    14:59 Trump Golden Age Clip

    17:05 War Fears and Disillusion

    19:27 Trump Family Windfall

    20:30 Subscriber Opera Question

    21:16 Wagner and Gershwin

    22:33 Sci Fi Reading Picks

    24:59 Debt Bubble and Stablecoins

    30:19 Vigilante Citizen Talk

    33:15 Coal Markets Explained

    36:33 Israel Influence and Gaza

    40:58 Econophysics and Deflation

    45:19 Weekend Sign Off
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    46 分
  • Trump's Peace Deal: "It's Going to Blow Up"

    Trump's Peace Deal: "It's Going to Blow Up"
    2026/06/19

    Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

    Matt and Doug discuss the proliferation of U.S. holidays, including Juneteenth and Martin Luther King Day, before turning to the opening of Obama's presidential library and Trump's competing, highly theatrical library renderings, comparing modern presidential libraries to pyramids and noting Biden's reported difficulty raising funds. They debate Trump's showmanship around his birthday and a ceasefire/peace deal they expect won't hold, citing Iran's improved position, unresolved issues, disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and risks to oil prices. They then address Ukraine's drone attacks on Moscow and concerns about an escalating, lingering war. Doug shares his positioning in gold miners, energy, uranium, and a corn ETF, answers subscriber questions on filmmaking/royalties, the FIFA World Cup and U.S. border hassles, trade blocs like Mercosur/EU, recommended books, and impressions of Malaysia and Penang.

    00:00 Holiday Overload Debate

    01:06 Which Holidays Matter

    02:24 Equinoxes and Global Days Off

    03:25 Juneteenth and Identity Politics

    05:08 Obama Library Obamalisk

    06:55 Trump Library Renderings

    09:38 Pyramids and Presidential Tombs

    11:31 Biden Library Money Trouble

    14:25 Trump Birthday Peace Deal

    15:13 Hormuz Oil and Ceasefire Doubts

    18:02 Ukraine Drone War Escalation

    20:02 War Escalation Risks

    21:01 Ceasefire Won't Hold

    22:13 Crisis Investing Plays

    23:34 Corn ETF Thesis

    25:47 Film Investing Reality

    29:55 FIFA World Cup Fallout

    34:23 Trade Blocs Skepticism

    36:19 Five Books To Read

    38:56 Malaysia And Penang

    41:35 Weekend Signoff
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    43 分
  • Peace Bombshell & Israel as the 51st State

    Peace Bombshell & Israel as the 51st State
    2026/06/17

    Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

    Matt and Doug discuss a reported US–Iran peace deal whose MOU hasn't been released, doubting it will last due to Israel–Iran hostility and Israeli opposition, while arguing the US bombing of Iran was unnecessary and that the deal looks like a US surrender with potential reparations (estimated $300B) and possible UAE/private funding plus future service fees after 60 days. They then focus on provisions in the NDAA (Section 219) and an Intelligence Authorization Act measure (Sen. Tom Cotton) that would fuse US–Israel military and intelligence programs, outlining six harms: inability to stop unwanted wars, technology leakage (AI/quantum) possibly to China, US contractors losing business, Gaza-tested AI targeting tools entering US systems, Israeli espionage risks, and irreversible entanglement by FY2027. The conversation also covers Trump's credibility, government involvement in AI companies and energy-hungry data centers, China's open-source AI stance, IMF conditional lending in Papua New Guinea, rising authoritarian security policies in Peru, and broader fears of global conflict.

    00:00 Iran US Peace Deal

    01:08 Why Bomb Iran

    02:31 Israel Leverage Theories

    04:21 China Oil Shock Absorber

    06:58 Trump Character Spin

    10:02 Reparations And Tolls

    11:18 Israel Lebanon Sticking Point

    12:21 Israel As 51st State

    14:59 Six Ways It Hurts

    21:36 USS Liberty And AIPAC

    24:32 AI Data Centers Bubble

    28:24 AI As Strategic Weapon

    33:42 World War Three Thesis

    36:31 IMF In Papua New Guinea

    39:48 Peru Fujimori Crackdown

    43:47 Authoritarian Trend Fears

    45:44 Hopeful Wrap And Outlook
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    50 分
  • SpaceX Rings the Bell While Gold Hits Zero

    SpaceX Rings the Bell While Gold Hits Zero
    2026/06/12

    Matt and Doug discuss SpaceX's IPO jumping from 135 to about 171 a share and compare the frenzy to the dotcom era, noting its importance for broader market sentiment and Elon Musk's reported trillionaire status. They mention reading Peter Thiel's Zero to One, then pivot to extreme bearish sentiment in gold miners (a bullish index falling from 100 in January to 0 on June 10) and argue this may be a buying opportunity, alongside unloved oil despite ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions and prices around $80 WTI/$84 Brent. They cover rising inflation (CPI 4.2%), skepticism about official numbers, and expectations for new Fed chair Kevin Warsh. Subscriber questions include Costa Rica as a destination, tokenized gold's practicality and redeemability, whether to short markets, Ebola risk to Ivanhoe Mines, China's reduced oil imports, distrust of Howard Lutnick/Trump-linked trading dynamics, and whether humanoid robotics could extend the AI bull run.

    00:00 SpaceX IPO Buzz

    01:46 Thiel Book Talk

    04:29 Trillion Dollar Math

    06:24 Gold Miners Capitulation

    09:26 Inflation Fed Outlook

    12:47 Paper Fantasy Economy

    16:07 Costa Rica Expat Reality

    18:38 Central America Picks

    20:17 Tokenized Gold Idea

    21:07 Tokenized Gold Doubts

    21:39 Swiss Gold Token Update

    23:43 Shorting Market Timing

    25:33 Ivanhoe Ebola Risk

    28:36 Oil Prices and China

    34:56 Stablecoins and Power Players

    37:51 Epstein Files Speculation

    39:04 Robots and AI Bubble

    41:18 Trump Tweets and Markets

    44:13 Weekend Sign Off
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    45 分