『Doug Casey's Take』のカバーアート

Doug Casey's Take

Doug Casey's Take

著者： Matthew Smith
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Best-selling author, world-renowned speculator, and libertarian philosopher Doug Casey has garnered a well-earned reputation for his controversial insights into politics, economics, and investment markets. Doug literally wrote the book on profiting from periods of economic turmoil. *Crisis Investing* spent weeks as #1 on the New York Times bestseller list and became the best-selling financial book of 1980. He has been a featured guest on hundreds of radio and TV shows, including David Letterman, Merv Griffin, Charlie Rose, Phil Donahue, Regis Philbin, Maury Povich, NBC News, and CNN; has been the topic of numerous features in periodicals such as Time, Forbes, People, and the Washington Post; and is a regular keynote speaker. 個人ファイナンス 政治・政府 政治学 経済学
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  • Doug Casey: "Trump Will Not Fully Serve Out His Term"

    Doug Casey: "Trump Will Not Fully Serve Out His Term"
    2026/07/01
    Doug Casey on oil's new floor, the $1.4 billion grift, and why the next president will make Trump look like a moderate Doug made a call on this week's episode that stopped me mid-conversation: he's betting Trump resigns before 2028. Not impeachment. Not the 25th Amendment. Resignation — dressed up, in Doug's telling, with "some nonsensical reason why. Well, time for Vance to get groomed or whatever." And he didn't stop there: "I'd also make book that Melania is going to divorce him." His suspicion? The Melania coin was part of the alimony settlement. You can dismiss that as Doug being Doug. But listen to the whole episode and the logic hangs together. Here's the chain. The money trail Trump's latest financial disclosure shows $1.4 billion in crypto earnings while in office. The Trump meme coin alone brought in $635 million. (Melania's coin managed about $6 million — which tells you something about the settlement theory.) Doug's read: "Those coins serve absolutely zero useful purpose. It's like giving somebody a book contract or a speaking fee to pass money to them. It's basically a grift." And that money has a job to do. "He'll need that money to mount a proper legal defense after he's out of office." A president facing legal exposure the moment he leaves power, sitting on a billion-plus war chest, in years Doug expects to get "so wild and wooly" that walking away becomes the smart trade — that's the resignation bet. Mussolini economics Doug's larger frame is that the grift isn't a side show — it's the system now. "He really is a modern-day reincarnation of Mussolini. His economic policies are actually identical to those of Benito Mussolini" — the US government buying stakes in companies on the open market, ten of them at this point, with the family positioned ahead of the deals. Take the Kazakhstan tungsten arrangement: Trump's sons get in, then the US government invests heavily. Millions of Americans look at that and call it capitalism. Doug's correction: "It's actually fascism at work, in the classic Mussolini definition of the word." And every time Trump is associated with free markets, he delegitimizes them a little more. What comes next is worse Mamdani won in New York and is now using his star power to elevate three more like-minded candidates into Congress. Doug isn't mincing words: "They're actual real communists that wanna overturn the entire nature of US life." Left and right, Americans are being radicalized against the system itself. Sanders, Obama, "drain the swamp," Mamdani — every one of those was a vote to tear something down. And the anger is monetary at its root, even if almost nobody can name it. M2 money supply surged $247 billion in May — the largest monthly jump since May 2021, when Washington was mailing checks to everyone with a pulse. We now sit $1.3 trillion above the peak of that printing orgy. That's what's laying waste to the average American's standard of living. They can't make ends meet, they can't explain why, and so they reach for "billionaires shouldn't exist." Doug's punchline on where the numbers go from here: "Trump is gonna have to ask what comes beyond a trillion. He doesn't know it, but it's a quadrillion. So that number is the next one we're gonna start hearing about." "It's all like a gambler on tilt at this point." The one trade hiding in all of this Amid the doom, Doug laid out the most concrete investment case he's made in months. The Hormuz standoff isn't getting resolved. Even under the best scenario, flows through the Strait will be controlled by Iran and its allies — restricted flows are the new baseline. Doug's conclusion: "Oil has reached a new base level at, let's say, $65 to $70 at a minimum." Now the anomaly: "During the last real oil bubble, which was in 1980, oil stocks were 20% of the S&P 500. Now they're 4%" — even though oil matters more to the world economy than ever. Some of these companies are yielding up to 10% in current dividends. "They're cheap, they're paying big dividends, nobody wants them, and it's one of the only parts of the financial world that's actually underpriced." Everyone's chasing semiconductors and AI. The energy that powers all of it trades like an afterthought. That's the setup Doug lives for. Also in this episode Trump's feud with Meloni at the G7 (and what the Italian press called him afterward), the $16 million Reflecting Pool fixation, the CPS visit to the Buttigieg household and why child protective agencies should terrify every parent in America, and whether there will even be an election in 2028. Doug: "Who knows what could happen between now and then where we could have a national emergency and the election is put off — and that's really the end of the Republic of America." On Friday: Doug's take on the recent Supreme Court rulings, his thoughts on Peter Thiel's Zero to One, and your questions. Subscribers can submit via the "Ask Doug a Question" link at the top of the Substack. One more ...
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    38 分
  • "Dangerous and Capable of Almost Any Kind of Stupidity" — Doug Casey on America at 250

    "Dangerous and Capable of Almost Any Kind of Stupidity" — Doug Casey on America at 250
    2026/07/03

    Find us at https://www.CrisisInvesting.com

    1976 vs Today: Patriotism, Demographics, Tech, and Subscriber Q&A on Capital Controls, Uranium, Cuba, and Milei

    On the July 3 observed July 4 holiday, Matt and Doug compare America's 1976 Bicentennial mood with today, citing major shifts in demographics, a larger population, widening class divides, the decline of manufacturing, and especially computerization and heavy screen time, alongside reduced patriotism and optimism and more political polarization. They discuss changing race relations and immigration, then pivot to subscriber Q&A about Crisis Investing after Lau Veges' departure, risks of foreign bank accounts amid potential capital controls, gold-backed "goldbacks," whether a US government could compel the Sprott Uranium Trust to sell uranium, possible investment opportunities in a collapsing Cuba, views on the death penalty and abortion, where "renaissance men" are most common, why countries splitting can be beneficial, concerns about Javier Milei's pro-Israel actions and immigration stance, and why they won't track panelists' personal trades from their experts roundtables.

    00:00 1976 vs Today
    02:06 Population and Lifestyle Shifts
    04:09 Middle Class Squeeze
    05:50 Computers Change Everything
    07:20 Immigration and Identity
    11:11 Patriotism and Politics
    14:13 Subscriber Q and A Begins
    17:52 Foreign Accounts and Controls
    20:52 Goldbacks and Gold Money
    24:29 Uranium Trust and State Power
    29:55 Cuba Collapse and Opportunities
    33:02 Cuba Property Outlook
    34:19 Death Penalty Rethink
    36:21 Abortion Family Choice
    40:21 Renaissance Men Today
    44:30 When Countries Split
    47:15 Milei Zionism Concerns
    57:46 Roundtable Stock Followups
    01:01:49 Holiday Signoff
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    1 時間 3 分
  • Looming Economic Cataclysm

    Looming Economic Cataclysm
    2026/07/08

    Find us at www.crisisinvesting.com

    The hosts discuss Trump saying an Iran MOU is "over" after reported attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz area, a major U.S. strike, and Iranian retaliation against U.S. bases in Bahrain and Kuwait, while noting uncertainty about attribution. They argue markets appear complacent despite the potential for a severe real-economy shock from disrupted oil flows, SPR drawdowns, and possible wider chokepoint closures (Hormuz, Bab el-Mandab). The conversation covers Iran's internal backlash after Khamenei's death and the likelihood of escalation, plus spillover risks from Russia-Ukraine strikes on refining assets and Europe's militarization. Doug outlines positioning: long oil via spreads and producers, long grains and gold miners, and considering bearish semiconductor hedges, while warning of bubble valuations and broader systemic financial risks.

    00:00 Iran Deal Collapses

    01:58 Calm Before Oil Shock

    05:06 Oil and Grain Trades

    10:02 Hormuz War Scenarios

    12:32 Iranian Public Backlash

    16:21 Israel and Turkey Risks

    19:56 Financial Domino Effects

    22:13 Europe Russia Escalation

    25:17 Trump Megalomania Talk

    29:21 How to Hedge Now

    30:36 Bubble Shorts Semis SpaceX

    35:18 Market Vibe and Indicators

    40:13 World War III Fears

    42:05 Wrap Up and Next Episode
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    43 分
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