DFW was the poster child for oversupply. Record deliveries. Rents tanking, but the market is rebalancing.

Supply and demand just met for the first time since 2021. Supply peaked at 44K units in 2024, dropped to 31K in 2025, projected at 21-23K in 2026. Down 50% from peak. H1 2026, DFW absorbed 25K units. Q2 alone absorbed 12K while only 6K delivered. Why? Population growth. 100K new residents last year. 339 per day. 41-50K jobs annually. At equilibrium around 23K units per year, the dynamic flips. Occupancy hit 93.8%, up 60 bps. Rents still down 2.6% YoY but turned positive quarter-over-quarter. Full-year rent growth projected at 1.8%. Cap rates averaging 5.25%. Class A at 4-5.2%, Class B at 5.5-6.3%, Class C at 6.5-7.5%. Clear bifurcation. Transaction volume recovering. Q2 sales hit 2.27billion.The risk is the maturity wall. 2 billion-plus in multifamily debt due in H2 2026 alone. Owners facing refinancings at 7-8% when they bought at 3-4%. Some won't work. Assets get recapitalized or sold.

The core demand story is sound. DFW adds 100K people per year. Rent versus buy favors renting. The play is bifurcated. Core trophy Class A in Uptown, Oak Lawn, Park Cities attracts capital. Value-add in Class B/C suburbs at 6.5-7.5% cap rates spreads if vacancy tightens and rents climb to 2-3% growth in 2027. DFW is a template for market rebalancing. The maturity wall creates opportunity. Assets in stress get picked up by sponsors with capital. It'll be a repricing, not a bloodbath. Markets that add population and jobs can absorb supply. DFW waited. Now they're on the other side.