Global Wheat Market Summary: September 20, 2026

• Russia: Production pegged at 88.2 to 90,000,000 tons, but active export ports have dropped from 38 to 21, cutting August exports to 1,800,000 tons, the lowest since 2010. SovEcon sees July to September exports at 5,400,000 tons and has cut the full year forecast by 3,200,000 tons to 41,400,000 tons. Domestic stocks are up 10.1% year on year to 29,900,000 tons, with farm gate prices down as much as 18% year on year. Export duty cuts and intervention purchases have done little to offset the glut, while heat in Siberia now threatens spring wheat.
• United States: Winter wheat production has fallen to 28,500,000 tons, near a record low (Kansas down 43.4%), despite a 39% futures rally driven by high diesel and fertilizer costs. Export commitments are down 31% year on year, with US wheat still lagging Black Sea origins on price.
• Canada: Production forecasts trimmed on weather and disease, particularly in spring wheat, though early exports and deliveries have surged.
• Australia: Production forecast raised on favorable southern conditions, though still below last year's record, with a freight advantage supporting Asian sales amid Black Sea disruption.
• European Union: Soft wheat production down moderately, but exports lifted, led by Romania and France, to meet demand from logistical gaps elsewhere.
• Kazakhstan: A sharp production decline is limiting exports, shifting focus to domestic demand.
• Kyrgyzstan, Iran, Uzbekistan: Import shifts favor Russian wheat as Black Sea disruptions push alternative sourcing.
• Nigeria and Brazil: Both remain heavily import reliant amid structural deficits and seasonal climate challenges.
• Global: Russia's abundant but export constrained harvest sits against a transient Black Sea logistics premium, with diverse production challenges elsewhere shaping a complex supply and trade landscape.