Global Sugar Market Summary

• In South Africa, sugar production is under pressure from insufficient rainfall in KwaZulu-Natal, which has reduced cane growth and sucrose content. Severe labor shortages have compounded the problem, with an estimated 80% reduction in the available workforce contributing to harvest delays of up to two months. Lower cane prices, higher input costs and persistent logistical constraints are adding further pressure on growers and processors.
• India's Maharashtra sugar industry is also struggling with labor shortages as the new crushing season approaches. Despite significant cane processing during the 2025-26 season and policy efforts to encourage earlier crushing, limited mechanization continues to leave mills heavily dependent on manual labor. Outstanding industry payments are also creating liquidity constraints that could delay the start of crushing operations.
• Tanzania is taking a different approach, targeting sugar self-sufficiency by 2030 and aiming to begin exporting surplus sugar during the 2026-27 season. Investments in modern agricultural technologies, including high-capacity drones for irrigation and fertilizer application and improved seed processing, are supporting this strategy. If successful, Tanzania's transition from a sugar importer to a net exporter could increase regional supply and alter East African trade flows.
• Thailand faces a potentially significant production decline due to the risk of a severe drought associated with a projected Super El Nino event. Sugarcane production could fall from around 106 million tons to approximately 100 million tons in the 2026-27 season. Reduced output could tighten global supplies and provide upward support to sugar prices, with projections pointing toward approximately 17 cents per pound by 2027. Producers are being encouraged to limit exports and build inventories in preparation for tighter supply conditions.
• Kazakhstan remains heavily dependent on imported sugar, with domestic beet production accounting for less than one-third of national consumption in 2025. Although the country recorded a record beet harvest in 2024, processing limitations and continued reliance on imported cane sugar have prevented it from reaching its self-sufficiency goals. Government initiatives are focused on expanding domestic beet cultivation and processing capacity, while a new 16% value-added tax on imported raw sugar could increase costs for mills and influence future pricing and production decisions.