Global Palm Oil Market Summary: September 20, 2026

• Indonesia: Facing significant supply disruption from an alarming wildfire season, particularly in the Kalimantan region. StoneX projects a 12 to 15% production decline in the area for Q4 2026, with fire damage potentially impairing palm trees for years and raising recovery costs. GAPKI has lowered its 2026 production forecast by 2.9%, though new plantations outside affected zones should keep national output above last year's levels. The B50 biodiesel mandate continues to bolster domestic demand, tightening export availability and underpinning regional price stability.
• Malaysia: Futures reflect volatility on soft export demand and rising inventories, with a decrease in export figures and higher end September stocks creating downward pressure. A fluctuating ringgit adds further complexity to pricing. The EU traceability regime poses logistical challenges, though Malaysia continues pushing compliance via MSPO certification. Prices are still expected to hold stable, supported by Asian biofuel demand. India's higher August imports offer a positive signal, and any cut to import duties could further stimulate demand.
• European Union: Structural shift underway, with a 5% contraction in palm oil imports driven mainly by the biofuel phase out, favoring large certified producers able to meet new traceability rules, with significant unsold certified sustainable palm oil capacity underscoring a surplus.
• China: Price movements remain largely driven by trends on the Dalian exchange, with a potential shift toward stricter traceability standards possibly redirecting trade flows toward large producers.
• Global: Crude oil price fluctuations continue to play a critical role across markets, with recent swings affecting palm oil's competitiveness as a biodiesel feedstock.