Global Maize Market Summary: September 13, 2026

• United States: Preparing to harvest its second largest crop on record, though yields have been cut from 186.5 to 180.7 bushels per acre, with a further drop to 178.1 anticipated (production down 236,000,000 bushels to 15,777,000,000 bushels). StoneX is more optimistic at roughly 411.7 million tons. Crop condition has fallen to a season low of 56 to 57% good to excellent (from 68 to 71% last year), with declines in Missouri and North Dakota offset by gains in Colorado and Kentucky. Record warmth is hastening maturation, risking kernel weight and grain fill. Harvest is ahead of schedule at 5% complete, the earliest since 2012 in some areas. Export commitments are strong at 100 to 104% of USDA projections (up 24% year on year), led by Mexico, Japan, and Colombia, with managed money net long at its highest since April 2022.
• Argentina: Record production expected, revised up to 71,700,000 tons for 2025/26 on a more than 26% expansion in planted area, with August to September exports set to hit unprecedented levels on competitive pricing, though sustaining 5,000,000 tons of monthly throughput will test logistics.
• Brazil: Production estimated between 135 and 142,000,000 tons, with domestic ethanol use tightening stock to use ratios, while exports have contracted sharply on higher internal consumption and competition from Argentina and the US.
• European Union: A severe shortfall is projected, down 20%, as drought and heat hit major producers like France, driving a surge in import demand, with Ukraine's exports to Europe hindered by geopolitical tensions.
• China: May need to raise feed grain imports due to weather, though a large production decline is unlikely, with falling domestic prices pointing to weaker demand.
• Russia: Anticipating a record harvest, though logistics breakdowns and high export duties are undermining profitability and pressuring domestic prices lower.
• Kenya/Zambia: Zambia is positioned to help meet Kenyan import needs via significant export contracts, with success dependent on regional logistics.