Global Cocoa Market Summary: September 13, 2026

• Ivory Coast: Record output for the 2025/26 season reached 2,060,000 tons, a 30% increase from the previous year's 1,580,000 tons. Port arrivals for the October 2025 to August 2026 marketing year rose to 2,140,000 tons, up 19% year on year. However, the outlook for next season's main crop points to a potential drop to 1,800,000 tons (an 18% decline), with weather conditions raising blackpod disease risk in some regions while others face drier conditions. Financial backing from institutions such as FMO aims to support processing capacity, though structural challenges persist.
• Ghana: Current season output stands at 750,000 tons, a notable 25.6% increase, but future estimates predict a significant drop to as low as 450,000 to 550,000 tons. The sector faces severe financial distress tied to CocoaBod's debt burden and farmer disincentives from falling farm gate prices. A new law aimed at protecting cocoa farms offers some hope, though implementation under current financial constraints remains challenging.
• Nigeria: Robust bean exports this season mask a weaker outlook for 2026/27, with an 11% production decline forecast. Compliance with European Union regulations continues to constrain output.
• Ecuador: The country is aiming to climb to become the world's second largest cocoa producer, though high weather related risks continue to affect harvest conditions.
• Brazil: Emerging as an additional supplier, though no specific current production figures are available.
• Indonesia: Near record dry conditions are affecting key cocoa producing regions, threatening crop development and overall output for the upcoming season.
• Global market: Prices have seen a swift downturn on ICE amid increased certified inventories. Grinding data suggest demand is shifting rather than diminishing, with differing trends across regions. Surplus and deficit forecasts for 2026/27 point to narrower margins, with some projections indicating outright deficits. A potential strong El Nino adds further uncertainty, posing risks to West African growing conditions. Technical analysis shows key support levels holding, with the broader upward price trend remaining intact above major moving averages.